Preview: Gophers vs. Michigan State

While the Gophers’ NCAA Tournament backs are up against the wall, Wednesday’s contest at Michigan State still has to be considered a ‘gravy’ game. Outside of the trip to Champaign to face #1 Illinois (which didn’t go real well), this is Minnesota’s toughest game of the season.

The Spartans are absolutely rolling and, were it not for the undefeated Illini, they would likely be on their way to a Big Ten championship. The Spartans are 17-4 on the season, 8-2 in conference play, and have won 7 of their past 8 games (all fairly convincingly). A Gopher victory in the unfriendly confines of the Breslin Center is far from expected and would be serious gravy that would erase all of my painful memories from the (ugh) Northwestern game.

These two teams of course met back on January 22nd, with the Spartans leaving The Barn with a 69-55 victory. This was a game in which the Gophers were down by just 5 points with two minutes remaining and were a defensive rebound away from making the gam every interesting. It was also a game where Minnesota let opportunity after opportunity slip away, while Michigan State stepped up and made the necessary plays to turn its season around (if an 11-3 season needed turning).

Minnesota, as we know, is on a two-game losing streak and is still four wins away from getting off the Big Dance bubble (and still three wins away from getting on the bubble in the first place). An upset Wednesday would allow at least a small amount of breathing room to enter the final four games, but an upset is not likely. Even in defeat, what’s important will be the dreaded ‘moral victory’, since the Gophers will need a lot of confidence and good vibes if they’re going to run the table the rest of the way.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Lights Out. You can talk strategies all you want, but to win a game like this, Minnesota is going to have to shoot the ball well. Hustle will only get you so far on the road against the #13 team in the country. The Gophers are going to need multiple guys to prove threats from three-point range, and they’re going to have to make almost all of the makeable shots they get. The Gophers actually shot a solid 7 for 18 from three-point range in the first game, but they went just 10 for 31 from two point range (they missed a lot of bunnies) and a woeful 14 for 24 from the free throw line. Those numbers would equal a blowout loss in this game.

2. Two Legs are Better than One. The biggest Gopher positive from the first meeting was the play of Jeff Hagen. Just three days removed from a sprained knee and barely able to hobble up and down the court, Jeff put up a game-high 16 points and grabbed a team-high 6 rebounds. The Spartans had no answer for him inside, so Minnesota will certainly be looking to get the ball inside to the big man now that he’s pretty healthy. Of course the Spartans will likely design their defense to stop just that, which means the Gophers are going to have to shoot well from outside (and get back to moving without the ball and slashing to the rim) to open up the middle.

3. Little Big Things. If they shoot well, and if Hagen can control the middle, the Gophers should be in the game. Then it’s simply going to come down to who wants it more. Minnesota certainly needs it more, but it was the Spartans who showed the most intensity in the first meeting. They dominated the boards 40-25 and played with great energy on the road. Minnesota needs to return the favor and hopefully even step it up a notch.

I’ll be spending the first 30 minutes of this game ignoring the scoreboard and focusing on how the Gophers are playing. They need to play well, play with confidence, and play with energy. If they do that, I’ll feel a little better heading into the final two weeks of the season. And if they somehow manage to keep the game close in those first 30 minutes, then the scoreboard will be all I see.

With Minnesota now in a mini-slump, there’s no way I can predict an upset. But even if the Gophers were playing great basketball right now, I still wouldn’t pick them to win. Michigan State has really found its stride recently, and the Breslin Center is a very tough place to play. My prediction: Michigan State 74 Minnesota 60.

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