Preview: Gophers vs. Michigan

Crisler Arena has not been kind to the Gopher men’s basketball team over the years. Discounting games that were later vacated, Minnesota has won there just once in its past 14 trips. Heading into this season, it looked like that trend would continue. The Gophers were picked for the cellar, and the Wolverines were expected to finally get back to the Big Dance.

There’s been a paradigm shift in the past month though. Besieged by more injury problems than any other team in the Big Ten, and now without start point guard Daniel Horton for off-the-court reasons, Michigan is reeling. They’ve dropped four straight games, including Saturday’s 84-55 dismantling at previously winless Purdue.

Minnesota, on the other hand, still has some solid momentum going and has proven to be tenacious and resilient on the road. That’s why nearly every Gopher fan considers this to be a winnable game, and several even consider it to be a game Minnesota should win. That’s certainly debatable, but what’s not is that a victory would put the Gophers at an unexpected 5-3 in conference play with two home games on the horizon.

Even without Horton and injured wing Lester Abram though, Michigan still has lots of talent and decent depth. That’s especially true up front, where the return of injured big men Graham Brown and Chris Hunter has the Wolverines pretty loaded. 6’11” sophomore Courtney Sims (10 ppg, 6 rpg) is a very talented all-around player. The 6’11” Hunter (11 ppg) is a talented shot blocker who can also score inside with his athleticism. 6’8″ sophomore Brent Petway (8 ppg, 6 rpg) is a big-time athlete who’s stepped up his offensive game this year. The 6’9″, 255-lb Brown (5 ppg, 6 rpg) is a physical presence inside. As a group, this foursome is shooting a whopping 56% from the field. 6’6″ freshman Ronald Coleman (7 ppg) has also been solid, which recently got him promoted to the starting lineup.

The backcourt is where Michigan has had some issues recently. With Horton out, 5’11” junior Dani Whol (who’s scored 4 points all season) has been starting at the point. Highly touted and very talented sophomore Dion Harris (13 ppg) is a dangerous two-guard, but he’s had some turnover problems and is shooting just 34% from the field. The withered Wolverine backcourt has also meant increased minutes for inexperienced players like 6’0″ junior Ashtyn Bell (1 point all season), 6’3″ junior Sherrod Harrell (2 ppg), and 6’5″ sophomore John Andrews (4 ppg).

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Start Strong. Michigan is damaged goods, and after a run of disappointing seasons, their fans have also been struggling. That can be good, but it can also be dangerous. On paper, this is the Wolverines’ easiest game out of the next five, and you can be certain they don’t want to lose 9 in a row. If they get things going, they could easily snap out of their funk. But if Minnesota can get off to a good start, the Wolverines could fall apart like they did at Purdue. The Gophers need to come out playing hard, smart, and confident, and take the Michigan players and crowd out of the game early.

2. Be Strong. Michigan’s frontcourt is talented, but it’s also foul prone. Against Purdue, Petway and Hunter combined for 9 fouls in 26 minutes. If the Gopher big men are strong with the ball, and if the perimeter players take it strong to the hoop, Minnesota has a chance to neutralize Michigan’s frontcourt depth and talent. The Gophers also need to try to neutralize their athleticism on the boards by boxing out and going after every rebound.

3. Pressure. If the Gophers can neutralize the Michigan frontcourt, they have a chance to break down the backcourt. Harris is now the only Wolverine who can consistently hurt you off the dribble, so if you can keep him contained and then really clamp down on the others, Michigan will struggle on the offensive end. That’s what happened at Purdue. The Boilermakers extended their defense and played very aggressively, and the Michigan backcourt couldn’t initiate any offense. They couldn’t penetrate, and they couldn’t get the ball inside, so they had to put up a lot of jumpers (which they mainly missed). The Gophers need to go back to the smothering defense that broke down so many of their undermanned nonconference opponents.

This is a biggie. If the Gophers can win and head to the second half of the conference schedule with a 5-3 record, they’ll be in great shape. Michigan certainly looks beatable, and I like the Gophers’ chances. They need to get out to a strong start like they did at Ohio State, they need to be sharper than they have been recently, and it would really be nice if they have a good shooting day. But the Gophers have also shown that they can win on the road without necessarily playing a great game, and that’s what has me feeling somewhat confident. My prediction: Minnesota 66 Michigan 63.

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