Preview: Gophers vs. Iowa State

Do you have any idea how long I’ve been waiting to write a preview for a Gopher NCAA Tournament game? Of course you do. It’s been six years almost to the day since I previewed a first-round game between Minnesota and an unheralded Gonzaga team coached by an unheralded Dan Monson. That Monson-led squad went on to shock the college basketball world a couple of times. Hopefully the same will be true this year.

Either way, it is a great feeling to finally be previewing another NCAA Tournament game. And as a bonus, this is a very interesting game to preview. With 49% of the country scheduled to get the game on CBS, I’m obviously not the only one who thinks so. #8 vs. #9 games are always intriguing, and this one adds the spice of a regional rivalry and two teams that are very similar.

The Cyclones are back in the Dance for the first time since 2001 thanks to a strong finish and solid 9-7 Big Twelve record and 17-10 record overall. When they’re on top of their game, they’ve proven to be about as good as anybody. You don’t beat Oklahoma and Texas Tech and then go on the road to beat Texas and Kansas without having some talent. Of course, you also don’t lose at home to the likes of Colorado and Nebraska without driving your fans and coaching staff a little crazy.

Iowa State’s ups and downs are primarily due to their youth. While they do have two seniors in their starting lineup, the rest of their six-man rotation consists of freshmen and sophomores. Leading the way is 6’2″ sophomore Curtis Stinson. Stinson lit up the conference as a freshman last season, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. This year, he’s at 17 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals. His shooting has dropped a bit to 44% from the field, and he does have a tendency to force things a bit, but that’s just because he knows he needs to make things happen in order for his team to win; that’s a lot of pressure for a youngster, but he’s been more than able to handle it.

6’9″, 245-lb senior Jared Homan mans the middle for the Cyclones and gives them a solid veteran presence. He’s not necessarily a guy you go to for a hoop, but his 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks show that he can definitely hurt you. His 43% field goal percentage is not good for a big man, but he is a solid 71% at the free throw line and has a nice touch.

5’11” sophomore Will Blalock is the other half of one of the nation’s best backcourts. Blalock has improved his scoring significantly from last season and is averaging an impressive line of 13 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals. Like Stinson, he’s not much of a three-point shooter, but he can definitely create off the dribble as well as wreak havoc on defense.

6’8″, 230-lb senior Damion Staple is the other veteran in the Cyclones’ primary rotation. Damion isn’t much of a scoring threat, but he’s a solid complimentary player who contributes 6 points and 5 rebounds per game. The rest of the rotation consists of two talented freshmen: 6’6″ Rahshon Clark (7 ppg, 4 rpg) and 6’5″ Tasheed Carr (6 ppg). The two rookies are actually Iowa State’s biggest three-point threats, although neither gets many attempts in a typical game.

When you look at the numbers, these two teams are almost identical. When you look at their roster, they’re also pretty similar. There are the obvious Grier/Stinson and Hagen/Homan comparisons, and then there are the solid complimentary players. The Gophers don’t quite have another penetration guy like Blalock, but the Cyclones definitely don’t have a shooter like Robinson. Minnesota has been a little more consistent throughout the season, but Iowa State has a few more impressive victories. Both teams thrive on defense and struggle at times on offense, and both teams have improved significantly over the course of the year. This really does have the makings of a great game.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game (note: while I use 3 keys in the regular season, the sky’s the limit for March Madness):

1. Keep ’em Out. Stinson is a scoring machine at times, Homan and Blalock can be tough to handle, and a few other Cyclones can also put up double digits if given a chance. What they rarely do, though, is shoot the ball well from the perimeter. Iowa State has no consistent threats from three-point range, which is why they typically don’t attempt many 3s. They like to penetrate and score in transition. If the Gophers can limit the Cyclones’ fast-break opportunities (i.e. don’t turn the ball over), deny dribble penetration, and not bail them out by fouling, chances are they will struggle to score points. Texas Tech employed this tactic in the Big 12 Tournament and won 64-56. In that game, the Cyclones shot 38% from the field, went 0-6 from 3-point range, and attempted just 5 free throws.

2. Be-Aggressive, Got-to-Be-Aggressive. If the Gophers can deliver on Key #1, then they’re simply going to have to score some points in order to get the ‘W’. That’s easier said than done against Iowa State’s active pressing and trapping defense. The Cyclones forced their Big 12 opponents into committing 17 turnovers per game and held many talented teams well below their scoring average. While hot shooting is the obvious weapon of choice, the easier one for Minnesota to implement is to be aggressive with the ball. The Gophers should try to run whenever possible to keep the Cyclone defense from getting set. And when it does get set, Minnesota needs to attack the pressure with the intention of scoring rather than simply surviving. The best way to make a team drop out of the press is to burn them for a couple of lay-ups. Aaron Robinson and Vincent Grier need to take the lead on this one.

3. No Pressure. While the Gophers haven’t been in the Big Dance for 6 years, they have been here before. They’ve been facing must-win games for the past month (with much success), and they’ve just played two games at least as imposing as this one in the Big 10 Tournament. They know what to expect, and they know what to do. The pressure’s off now. The Gophers simply need to go out like they did against Indiana and simply play their game with confidence. Let the young Cyclones get nervous, but remember that you’ve been here before.

4. Go Deep. Just as I said a week ago, the Gophers could stand to benefit from going a little deeper on their bench in this one. Both teams have a core group of six who get the majority of their minutes, but I give Minnesota the edge at #7 and #8. Spencer Tollackson showed against Indiana the type of valuable contribution he can make. Rico Tucker has a chance to make a similar contribution in this one. His quickness will be valuable on defense, and he has the talent to help with Key #2 if he plays smart like he did against Indiana. If any of the top six are struggling or get in foul trouble, hopefully the two true freshmen will be ready to go.

5. Crash the Party Like It’s 2004. This Gopher team has improved throughout the course of the season more so than any other Gopher team this decade, but there’s one area where I feel they’ve lost a step: rebounding. The Gophers crashed the boards with reckless abandon early in the season, but they’ve regressed there lately. They’ve still had some decent games on the offense glass, but it’s been a long time since they really controlled things on the defensive end. With better defensive rebounding, Minnesota might have knocked off #1 Illinois last weekend. The Cyclones have similar rebounding deficiencies, so the Gophers need to take that as a cue that they can own the boards on Friday. It’s all about who wants it most, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be Minnesota.

I still maintain that simply making the NCAA Tournament this season will leave me smiling all summer no matter what happens on Friday. Still, the more time I have to sit and think about it, the more I want the Gophers to win and get a crack at North Carolina on Sunday. How cool would that be? And beyond the fan appeal, that’s the type of experience that could really help prepare the underclassmen for next season.

All that stands in the way is this young, talented, pesky, scrappy Iowa State team. If they’re hitting their jumpers, they’ll be awfully tough to beat. Then again, very few teams have shot the ball well against Minnesota’s defense. I believe that whichever team wins two of the following three statistical categories will win this game: 1) Turnovers; 2) Free throws made; 3) Three-point percentage.

So do I think that team is going to be the Gophers? Heck yeah. My prediction: Minnesota 70 Iowa State 67.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.