Preview: Gophers vs. Iowa

Well, if a double-digit victory over Purdue and a 10-game winning streak aren’t enough to convince people that Minnesota is a good basketball team, one more victory should do the trick. Going into a hostile Big Ten arena and knocking off a Top 25 team that will be desperately trying to avoid an 0-3 start to the conference season would certainly make a believer out of me (although I probably already am one).

Iowa started off the 2004-05 season on an unexpected run, upsetting two ranked teams (Louisville and Texas) in Hawaii before falling to North Carolina (one of the top two teams in the country at this point) in the championship game. The Hawkeyes then went on to win their next nine games (although the schedule was easy) and entered Big Ten play with a 13-1 record. A surprising home loss to Michigan and a sizeable road loss to Ohio State suddenly have them staggering a bit, however.

The question now becomes “Which Hawkeye team is the real one?”. Is it the world-beaters who were putting up impressive stats on both ends of the court? Or is it the team with little depth or size that is only as good as its shooting percentage on any given night? Iowa, like Minnesota, certainly has something to prove in the coming week. And since their next game (at Illinois) appears virtually unwinnable, a few Hawkeye supporters will probably be tempted to [prematurely] label the Minnesota game as their season.

That means the pressure will be on the Big Four. That would be juniors Pierre Pierce, Jeff Horner, and Greg Brunner along with sophomore Adam Haluska. The four lead the Hawkeyes in just about every statistical category and have combined to score 74% of their points.

The 6’4″ Pierce is their top gunner, currently ranking 2nd in the Big Ten at 17.9 ppg. He also averages 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Next on the scoring list, and probably #1 in terms of importance to the team, is 6’3″ point guard Jeff Horner. Horner is averaging an impressive line of 14 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals while playing a whopping 35 minutes per game (and more than that in Big Ten play). He’s also leads the conference with 49% accuracy from 3-point range

Iowa’s other two primary weapons are both averaging 13 points per game. While an undersized power forward at [a generous] 6’7″, Brunner is a warrior on the boards and in the paint. He grabs 8 rebounds per game and is shooting 55% from the field. The 6’5″ Haluska is primarily a shooter (42% from beyond the arc), but he’s also shown an ability to get to the basket.

After the Big Four (who are as good as any quartet in the conference), Iowa bears some resemblance to Purdue. They have some athletes and a bit of size, but they just haven’t been able to find anybody who can make a consistent contribution offensively. Because of the strength of their top guys and the large amount of minutes they play though, Iowa has been able to get by without depth.

They’ve also been able to hold onto some hope, because they do have some guys with potential. 6’11”, 210-lb junior center Erek Hansen (7 ppg) is the key player against any team with size. 6’8″ junior Doug Thomas (5 ppg, 4 rpg) has the athleticism to dominate at times. Young guards Mike Henderson and Carlton Reed played 42 minutes against Ohio State (but scored just 4 points). And if the Hawkeyes are desperate for size, they have 6’9″ freshman Alex Thompson and 7′ freshman Seth Gorney deep on the bench.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Healthy Hagen. Iowa has a definite weakness inside. Michigan’s Courtney Sims and Brent Petway (a combined 24 points and 20 rebounds) and Ohio State’s Terence Dials (22 points and 8 rebounds) were able to dominate inside, and Jeff Hagen has the potential to do the same inside. If he’s fully recovered from Wednesday’s injury and is able to play major minutes, he’ll have the added effect of giving Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson a size advantage at the power forward position as well. This is yet another game where the Gophers need to run the offense through the post. That’s especially key on the road.

2. Defend the ‘3’. Horner and Haluska are deadly shooters from beyond the arc, and Pierce (while just 30% on the season) can also bury you when he’s on. The Gophers have improved significantly over the past few weeks when it comes to guarding the three-point line, but this is going to be there biggest test yet. Minnesota doesn’t need to worry about double teaming inside (Brunner might beat them a few times, but that’s ok), and Vincent Grier and Brent Lawson will hopefully be able to clamp down on Pierce’s penetration, which means the Gophers defending Horner and Haluska can try to stay in their jerseys all game long.

3. Steady on the Road. The Gophers have only had one road game all season, so they need to be reminded that the most important things on the road are avoiding droughts on offense and not giving up runs on defense. Minnesota was able to win in spite of some unsteady play at Nebraska, but Iowa is a whole different level of challenge. The Gophers just need to go about their business and not even think about where they’re playing.

This would be a huge, huge win for the Gophers, and I honestly believe they have a chance. Grier showed icewater in his veins at Nebraska, this Gopher team in general just seems like one that craves a challenge. Iowa’s top four players are probably a little better and are definitely more experienced, but I give Minnesota the edge for positions 5 through 8. Iowa’s impressive nonconference play and back-to-the-wall position makes them a clear favorite in this game though, so I can’t objectively forecast an upset. My prediction: Iowa 72 Minnesota 65.

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