Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana

Knocking off Michigan State to go 4-1 in conference play would have been huge, but the Gophers unfortunately couldn’t pull it out. The good news is, beating Indiana Wednesday night to move to 4-2 in the Big Ten also has a nice ring to it. It doesn’t figure to be easy, but it should be easier.

A month ago, that looked like a forgone conclusion, as Indiana headed into Christmas riding a six-game losing streak and a 2-6 record overall. A couple of semi-cupcake games then allowed them to build a bit of momentum, but it was quickly drained by a blowout loss at Northwestern in the conference opener.

Since then, though, it’s been a whole new Hoosier team. They come into Williams Arena with a 4-1 conference mark, headlined by a dominating 74-61 victory over Wisconsin. The reasons for the apparently drastic turnaround are two fold. First, their losing streak was a bit of an illusion, as all six game were against top opponents, and several of the games were close. Second (this one isn’t an illusion), the Hoosiers have matured a great deal.

You see, while Minnesota can lay claim to having the most new faces in the conference, it’s Indiana and Coach Mike Davis who have had to deal with the youngest crop of players in the league. Take away junior stalwarts Bracey Wright and Marshall Strickland, and the Hoosier rotation consists entirely of freshmen and sophomores. Of course, when you bring in one of the nation’s top recruiting classes like Indiana did, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But it still takes time. That time is looking like it may have arrived ahead of schedule.

The 6’3″ Wright still leads the way, and his 19.1 ppg scoring average currently leads the Big Ten. But next on the scoring list (surprisingly ahead of the talented Strickland) are a pair of freshmen. 6’9″ D.J. White is the early favorite for Big Ten Freshman of the Year. His 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 59% shooting have given the Hoosiers the inside presence they desperately needed. 6’5″ wing Robert Vaden and his 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game have given them what they didn’t really need – another extremely talented wing player.

Strickland, a 6’2″ point guard, hasn’t dropped off too far from last season’s 11 ppg average, as he’s putting up 7 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists a night. Following him is yet another member of Indiana’s heralded freshman class, 6’2″ A.J. Ratliff (6 ppg, 3 rpg). A couple of talented freshmen from last year complete the primary rotation – 6’8″ Pat Ewing, Jr., and 6’4″ sparkplug Roderick Wilmont.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Gotta Go with It Again. This one’s getting old, but as has been the case in most games this season, Minnesota will again have an advantage inside with Jeff Hagen and Spencer Tollackson. Indiana’s frontcourt doesn’t have the experience to contend with Jeff, and they don’t have the bulk to hold their ground against either of them. Assuming Jeff’s knee has improved at least a little since Saturday (and with him now being used to the brace), he should be able to have a big impact again. Spencer just needs to keep an even keel and do his thing.

2. Stay in Front of Them. When it comes to getting his shot off, Bracey Wright is the most dangerous long-range (and I mean long range) shooter in the Big Ten. But that’s not why he’s leading the conference in scoring. Wright is actually shooting just 33% from 3-point range and has only made two 3s per game. Most of his points are coming off the dribble and at the free throw line (where he gets 7 attempts per game). D.J. White also gets to the line quite a bit, and the entire Hoosier rotation is quick enough to beat guys off the dribble and draw fouls. What the Gopher defenders need to do is keep the Hoosiers in front of them. Make them beat you with jump shots rather than with penetration and transition opportunities. Now I certainly am not saying to give Wright open looks, but lets just see if the young Hoosiers can shot better than their 31% season three-point average in a tough road environment.

3. Grab and Go. Ever since the Penn State game, Minnesota’s shooting percentage has been woeful. The three-pointers were actually fallen against the Spartans, but the overall percentage was still low. A primary cause is that the Gophers have not been getting many baskets in transition (and of course they missed the ones they did get against Michigan State). Defensive rebounding has a lot to do with transition, and that’s why the Gophers have a chance to get back to their running ways against Indiana. The Hoosiers have been outrebounded in 4 of their 5 conference games, which means Minnesota should be able to control the glass and initiate some fast breaks. With Indiana suddenly using its quickness to play tough defense (none of their past 4 opponents has shot over 40%), getting some points outside of the halfcourt offense now looks even more important.

This game was looking pretty easy a month ago, but that’s no longer the case. Still, Indiana is very young and pretty small, and that historically hasn’t translated to many road victories in the Big Ten. The big wildcard is if Bracey Wright has one of those games where he simply goes off. The comforting factor on this year’s Gopher squad is that both Vincent Grier and Brent Lawson should be able to do a decent job of trying to contain him. If the Gopher freshman can hold their own against Indiana’s, and if Hagen can turn in another gutty performance, I like Minnesota’s chances of following up a loss with a victory for the third time in a row. My prediction: Minnesota 73 Indiana 66.

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