Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana

Tourney time is here, and for the first time in several years, it has a chance to be a very happy time for Minnesota fans. The Gophers have their first-ever opening round bye in the Big Ten Tournament, they’re sporting a very solid 10-6 conference record, and for once they don’t need to win 4 games in 4 days (or 3 games in 3 days, for that matter) in order to get to the Big Dance. Happy times indeed.

Of course, Minnesota’s first round opponent is having similar happy thoughts. While the Hoosiers’ 15-12 overall record doesn’t compare with the Gophers, they do sport an identical 10-6 conference mark and are hopeful that their extremely difficult nonconference schedule (while they didn’t win any of the games) will convince the Selection Committee that they belong in the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana also has the distinction of perhaps playing the best basketball in the conference outside of Illinois over the past month. The Hoosiers have won 4 of their past 5 games, with the only defeat coming by 2 points at Wisconsin. Their tournament hopes had been looking a bit slim, but a 78-74 overtime victory over Michigan State 11 days ago gave them new life.

The key to Indiana’s run has been the rapid maturation of their freshmen and the return of a healthy Bracey Wright. Freshmen D.J. White, Robert Vaden, and A.J. Ratliff each rank among Indiana’s top five scorers. They average a combined 34 points per game and have stepped those numbers up in recent games. Wright has also stepped it up lately. He led the Big Ten with an 18.5 ppg average but went for 32 in the upset of the Spartans.

Minnesota and Indiana split the regular season series with the Gophers winning 70-65 back in January and the Hoosiers cruising to a 71-56 victory in February. Their identical conference records, strong play to end the season, and similar NCAA Tournament positions have the makings for an excellent 4 vs. 5 game in the Big Ten Tournament.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Lock It Up. I truly believe the Gophers deserve to be in the Big Ten Tournament no matter what happens on Friday. 10 conference wins, 20 overall, and a 5-4 road record are indicative of a team worthy of the Big Dance. Still, I won’t rest easy if that’s Minnesota’s final resume. People can say that conference affiliations don’t matter all they want, but I still get the painful feeling that the Selection Committee might decide to make their job easier and call this a playoff game. With that paranoid feeling in mind, a Gopher victory over Indiana would let me sleep soundly over the weekend. The Gophers need to remove all doubt and control their own destiny. I don’t want them to be tight thinking they have to win, but they also can’t play like they’re already in and the game doesn’t matter. They need to be loose but focussed.

2. Three for All. Three-point shooting has been the key in this series. In January, the Hoosiers were just 2-19 from long range (Wright was 0-10), while Minnesota was a decent 6-15. In the last meeting, Indiana was a hot 8-13 (with Wright out injured), while the Gophers were a cold 3-14. Shooting the ball well in an unfamiliar (and spacious) venue like the United Center can be tough, but with both teams having byes, nobody has an edge. This game is simply going to come down to who comes out and finds their stroke the quickest.

3. A Little Help, Please. A big part of Minnesota’s 4-0 finish has been the return of a balanced scoring attack. Vincent Grier and Jeff Hagen have still been carrying the majority of the load, but several other Gophers have also been stepping up each game. The same happened in Minnesota’s victory over Indiana, when five Gophers scored between 9 and 15 points. Having one man [i.e. Grier] get hot can be the key to a deep tournament run, but having a well balanced team attack is the best way to put yourself in a position to win.

The consensus seems to be that Indiana has more to play for in this game, needing at least one more victory to make the tournament, while the Gophers should get in regardless as long as they don’t get blown out. I hope that’s right. I also hope that the young Hoosiers are feeling that pressure while the Gophers feel like they’ve already done the hard part. Minnesota is due to shoot the ball well, and the Hoosiers are hopefully due for a relapse. That means a semifinal showdown against the Illini could be in the Gophers’ future. My prediction: Minnesota 67 Indiana 64.

Talk about the game on our Gopher Basketball message board.