Preview: Gophers vs. Chicago State

It’s a good thing I decided to do a little more research before writing this preview, because I was about to take a different tone. I was going to talk about how this figured to be Minnesota’s easiest game of the year and how we were sure to see the Gophers’ deep reserves finally get some playing time. According to the numbers, the Chicago State Cougars just aren’t very good.

Like most small- to mid-major teams, they do have a couple of talented guards. 6’2″ senior Tony Weeden leads the team at 14 points per game, and 5’10” sophomore Royce Parran is right behind him at 13 ppg. The Cougars also have something most small schools don’t – a legit force in the middle. 7’1″, 240-lb sophomore Deji Akindele averages 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots per game.

However, unlike other decent nonconference opponents Minnesota has faced, Chicago State really doesn’t have much beyond their big three. Take away 6’4″ junior wing David Inabnit‘s 6 ppg, and everybody else averages less than 4 points per game. That’s why the Cougars have cracked 60 just once this season, and that’s a big reason why they’re off to an 0-5 start. They did play UCLA, Texas Southern, and Wisconsin-Green Bay pretty close, and you can’t blame them for losing handily at Northwestern and Illinois (actually, losing to the Illini by 19 looks pretty good), but their offense just hasn’t been good enough to get a ‘W’.

But remember, that is what I was going to write. My initial research had me wondering what happened to 6’3″ senior guard Craig Franklin. He was second-team all-Mid-Continent Conference last season and was the Cougars’ leading scorer (14.3 ppg), but he hasn’t played a minute all season. A quick trip to the Chicago State website revealed the reason. Turns out Franklin was academically ineligible for the first semester. It also turns out that the first semester at Chicago State ended on Friday, and Franklin will be making his season debut Wednesday night at The Barn.

That changes things. Now, all of a sudden, the team that just didn’t have enough scorers has another scorer (probably the best of the bunch). Now, all of a sudden, guys like Inabnit, 6’1″ sophomore Terren Wilson (3 ppg, but 11 against Illinois), and the coach’s son, 6’1″ sophomore Kevin Jones, Jr. (4 ppg), are pretty decent complementary players rather than guys who weren’t able to fill a primary scoring role. Now, all of a sudden, the team that only lost by 11 points at UCLA is significantly better. And now, all of a sudden, this might not be the walk in the park I thought it was going to be. Stinking early Winter Break.

Here are my Gopher Keys of the Game:

1. Challenge the Shot Blocker. The biggest key to this game might be the play of Akindele. There’s a tendency to figure a 7’1″ guy from a school like Chicago State probably isn’t very good, but the numbers say otherwise. Illinois has as good of a frontcourt as anybody in the Big Ten, and Akindele had 14 points (on 5 for 8 shooting) and 7 rebounds against them in 37 minutes. Those were better numbers than James Augustine and Nick Smith (Illinois’ top big men) had combined. Behind Akindele though, the Cougars don’t have much of an inside game. 6’10” junior Marin Mulic (5 minutes and 0 points against Illinois) and 6’8″ junior Nate Carter (5 minutes and 2 points) are it. If the Gophers can take the ball aggressively at Akindele and get him in foul trouble, they’ll make things a lot easier.

2. Keep ’em Off the line. The Cougars haven’t been a great 3-point shooting team (although Franklin could change that a little). Against the Illini, they made just 3 of 11 from beyond the arc. They also shot just 44% from the field (compared to Illinois’ 51%), got outrebounded 37-20 (and gave up a whopping 17 offensive boards), and turned the ball over 19 times. So how did they only lose by 19 points? They got to the free throw line 21 times compared to Illinois’ 8. Now we all know that the Illini have outstanding quickness and ability to penetrate. The fact that the Cougars beat them at their own game makes me think they’re pretty quick in their own right. The Gophers need to really focus on denying penetration and not biting on shot fakes until the Cougars prove that they can win the game from the perimeter.

3. Crash and Run. As you may have noticed in my last key, Illinois had 17 offensive rebounds, and Chicago State only had 20 total rebounds. They’re not a good rebounding team. With basically only one frontcourt player, that’s to be expected. The Gopher frontcourt should be able to dominate the glass in this game. While the Gopher backcourt needs to make sure they don’t allow the smaller Cougars to sneak in for long rebounds, they should also have the ability to drift out for a few more fast break opportunities while the front court swallows up the missed shots. Good rebounding (and good defense) leads to transition opportunities, and that’s where this Gopher team has proven they excel.

While I really was looking forward to a stress-free game and a chance to see more than 8 Gophers play, I guess it is a good thing that this Cougar team figures to be better than expected. Minnesota should still be able to win (and hopefully still be able to play the reserves in a stress-free game), and the extra competition should be a little more helpful in preparation for Big Ten play. My prediction: Minnesota 77 Chicago State 64.

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