Preview: Gophers at Florida Atlantic

Gopher Football

The Minnesota Gophers will attempt to improve to 2″“1 as they head to the heat and humidy of Florida to take on the Florida Atlantic Owls. Minnesota is coming off a thrilling triple overtime win while the Owls are coming off a 39 point loss. This will be the last chance for the Gophers to sharpen up their game before the Big Ten season opens up next weekend vs. Purdue.

Gopher update

Last week against Miami it was more of the same for the Gophers. With a couple exceptions the offense picked up where it left off against Bowling Green and did very well. Adam Weber looked much more comfortable in every phase of the game, the offensive line did well, and the the receivers and running backs looked good. With the exception of a couple crucial drops by Ernie Wheelwright & Tray Herndon and a fumble by Weber, the offense played relatively clean football. It was good to see Mike Chambers make a positive impact after moving back to wide receiver. Chambers, along with Eric Decker, Wheelwright and Herndon, should give the Gophers a solid showing the remainder of the season.

Unfortunately, the defense (especially the pass defense) was once again atrocious. The pass defense could not make the big play when it needed to, allowing Miami to drive the field three times and score 16 points in the final half-quarter of the game. It’s been a team failure; about every phase of the passing defense is struggling. Obviously it could continue be a very long year defensively once the Big Ten starts. The best chance for improvement in the pass defense lies in two areas: First, the pass rush simply needs to improve. So far this year the Gophers have gotten just one sack, which is a pretty accurate reflection of the pass rush that they’ve generated. This must improve, and hopefully will once Willie Van DeSteeg heals from his injured wrist. Secondly, what I really think we’ll need to count on is for the young freshman trio of Ryan Collado, Curtis Thomas and Kyle Theret to improve as the season goes on. Coach Brewster has spoken very highly of these three guys since the beginning of fall camp, and if they can get better as the season goes on then maybe there is a little more hope for the defense.

After a pretty good game against Bowling Green, the Gopher special teams took a big step back last week. Jason Giannini has been benched after going 0″“3 on field goals, including a missed 26 yarder in overtime. It remains to bee seen whether Joel Monroe or freshman Eric Ellestad will be replacing Giannini.

On the depth chart, the changes continue in the defensive secondary. For the second consecutive week, a senior has been pulled from the starting lineup in favor of a true freshman. This time it is Curtis Thomas taking the place of Duran Cooley. Along with Ryan Collado, half of the starting defensive secondary is now true freshmen.

Florida Atlantic update

The Owls have played twice this year, winning easily in their first game against Middle Tennessee State and losing their second game big against Oklahoma State. As a few posters pointed on the Brew’s Crew message board, FAU has not fared well against BCS conference teams. Here are their games against these schools (all losses) since 2005 when the moved to D-1A:

2007
Oklahoma State 42″“6

2006
Clemson 54″“6
Kansas State 45″“0
Oklahoma State 48″“8
South Carolina 45″“6

2005
Kansas  30″“19
Oklahoma State  23″“3
Minnesota   46″“7
Louisville   61″“10

So in their last seven games against BCS schools, the closest FAU has come is within 36 points. In fact, the last time a Sun Belt conference team beat a BCS School was when Middle Tennessee State beat Vanderbilt nearly two years ago. That bodes well for Minnesota heading into this game.

Like I’ll probably do every game this year, the first thing I’m going to look at when researching an opponent is how much they throw the ball, because if they’re not a passing team, I’m going to feel like the Gophers will have a better chance to win! In their first game against Middle Tennessee State attempted 27 passes and had 42 rushes. However, they were ahead 24″“0 early in the fourth quarter so they did run a lot to try and wear down the clock. But in the game against Oklahoma State in which they were beaten soundly, FAU still had more rushing attempts than passing, 34 ““ 32. I still think that any coach would be crazy not to come out and pass against us though, so my first prediction is that FAU will break their trend and throw the ball more than they’ll run this week.

The one huge advantage Minnesota has in this game is size. I had to double check these numbers, but the FAU offensive line averages just 6’2″, 260 pounds. The tight end is just 6’1″, 190 pounds. If FAU tries to continue their trend of running the ball, the Gopher defensive very simply must control the line of scrimmage. With the huge size and talent advantage Minnesota has, I have to think this will be the case. On defense, FAU does have some nice size to go along with their speed. I actually am a bit concerned about the offense this week, as the spread offense seems to play into the hands of the FAU defense more than the last time these teams played in 2005.

Bottom Line:

As we all have figured out after just two weeks, there will be no gimmie’s this year for the Gophers. The offense, though looking okay through two games, still has a lot to prove against good competition, and the defense could struggle in every contest. On paper this is a game the Gophers should win. They are the bigger more physical, talented team. As I mentioned above, FAU does not have a good history against BCS schools, and because of that a loss for Minnesota would be humiliating and tough to recover from. I think the single biggest key for Minnesota this week is to convert on their offensive opportunities. I think we’ll be able to move the ball, and unlike last week we need get touchdowns and field goals when we have the chance. If we can do that, I think we’ll win comfortably. If not, then FAU will gain confidence will hang with us longer. In the end I think the Gophers will win, but it will be a little too close for comfort.

Prediction: Minnesota 30 ““ Florida Atlantic 17

Talk about the FAU – Gophers matchup on the Brew’s Crew Message Board.

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