Gopher Basketball
Please refer to the Pregame Thoughts: at Northwestern 3/2/11 article for a run down of Northwestern’s players. Freshman JerShon Cobb missed the game last week and is still banged up. His status is doubtful for Thursday. In Cobb’s absence, senior Mike Capocci got the start against Minnesota, however Capocci is expected to be out for the Big Ten Tournament. On Tuesday, coach Bill Carmody said the senior was sitting out of practice with a headache. While the kid probably did have a headache, it turns out that he took a spill his apartment, resulting in a concussion and a number of staples to close up his dome earlier this week.
With Capocci out, Alex Marcotullio may get the start. The injuries to the nearly invisible Capocci may actually help Northwestern, especially if Marcotullio has a day that’s anything similar to his most recent against Minnesota, when he scored a career high 18.
In game one this season, the Wildcats put the Gophers on the line 46 times. On offense, I’d like to see the Gophers be committed to an ugly and barbaric fight in the paint in which they force the “˜Cats to either tackle Minnesota players or give up easy deuces. Northwestern’s defense is dreadful, but if Minnesota tries to shoot much from outside, the benefit of the weak defense will be mitigated by the Gophers’ poor shooting.
In Evanston, Minnesota only got to the line eleven times. They settled too often. Tubby Smith, as he has done more often as of late, made some roster decisions and substitutions that baffled me a bit, including starting Maverick Ahanmisi and subbing in Dominique Dawson and Chip Armelin together early in the game. Minnesota shot 17 times from three-point range, connecting on just three. I can live with Blake Hoffarber’s 1/5 performance, but Ahanmisi (1/6) and Hollins (1/4) shooting ten threes is not something I want to see in Indianapolis.
In this one, if Northwestern is connecting from long range or getting strong contributions from their best players (Thompson and Shurna), Minnesota will be in trouble. Overall, Minnesota is a more talented team. However, that hasn’t helped them win much in recent memory. Flip a coin on this one, it could go either way. The only thing certain is that it’s going to look ugly at times. My pick: Minnesota by 2.
Weren’t These Guys Final Four Bound?
Heading into the final non-conference game of the year, the roster included Devoe Joseph as well as healthy versions of Al Nolen and Maurice Walker. As that time, folks were excited about this top 20 team with just one loss. On December 21, 2010, in addition to sticking with my pre-season expectation that the Gophers would finish sixth in the Big Ten, I offered the following thoughts of where we stood as a team:
“Realistic view: We beat an overrated North Carolina team that is now unranked. We beat a team from the Big East that was picked to finished 5th in their conference. Now 5 of the top 9 in the Coaches poll are from the Big East, and WVA isn’t even ranked. We lost to a bad team at the Barn. The first half of many games we’ve looked awful”¦
I’ve heard people – fans, national media, local media all included – say multiple times that we are a deep team. I’m still not sold on that opinion. This team’s core has very good experience, but I don’t see us as being particular deep when it comes to the bench. I see the returning guys as all being potential big minute guys (25+) — Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, Mbakwe, Sampson, Iverson and Williams… after that, Hollins 15-20 and Mo 10-15.“
Soon thereafter, we no longer had the services of Joseph, Nolen and Walker and wound up finishing ninth. So was it really that bad? Absolutely. No matter your perspective and how you would weight the various reasons for the 6-12 Big Ten record, it should be a disappointment. This team, even after the injuries and transfer, had the talent to compete and reach the NCAA tournament. Some people are upset that Tubby “called out” certain players. Some people are upset that Tubby “hasn’t taken any blame (publicly)” and they just want him to “say it”. Personally I don’t need to hear it. I don’t care what he is saying. What I needed were wins. And Minnesota did not get them. Let’s hope for a solid showing the rest of the way and a few more memorable moments for senior Blake Hoffarber, who has already given us many.
“Start The Freshmen!”
Since Al’s surgery, Hoffarber at point guard has been and continues to be the best option. I didn’t mention Chip Armelin and Maverick Ahanmisi in December when talking about team depth for a reason.
While I would have been starting fellow freshman Austin Hollins (along with Hoffarber at the point, Williams, Mbakwe and Sampson) consistently since Nolen’s surgery, there has been a constant clamor from certain folks that Maverick Ahanmisi and Chip Armelin should be starting and/or getting significant minutes. I am still missing what so many apparently can see.
I appreciate the effort of these kids, but there are better options. Ahanmisi’s astronomical turnover rate of 40% is a concerning figure. When you consider what little he’s been asked to do and review some of the turnovers, it’s that much more troubling. Perhaps people are impressed with his 8/26 (30.8%) three-point shooting. I’ll admit, while for the average guard it’s a bad percentage (not to mention one of those makes was a half court buzzer beater and another was a 30-foot prayer as the shot clock expired), it’s relatively lofty when compared to most of his teammates.
Chip can be very entertaining to watch and I understand why some would be big fans of his. Before the season started, my thoughts on him were as follows:
“He likes to shoot the ball when on offense. Has good spring to his step and will have his moments against lesser competition in limited minutes this early winter. However, his offensive tendencies may not work well in this offense and unless his defensive play is consistently impressive, I could see him getting a quick hook when he does make appearances in games. True, the Gophers do need go to scorers, but I don’t think Chip is the answer this year.
At a minimum, a fun player to watch that will occasionally impress during limited appearances”¦ at best, a contributor who adds a scoring punch and aggressiveness on offense.“
With hindsight, I wouldn’t change any of those comments. Armelin is fearless with the ball – when on the floor, he takes almost 25% more shots than anyone else. I can appreciate that to some degree, but his jump shot is”¦ not good at the present moment. Sure, he can get to the rack, but how many of the missed layups are bad luck? How about drawing some contact? Excluding the scoreless Dominque Dawson, Armelin has the worst Points Per Shot average on the team.
At any rate, there are a number of areas that I can understand disagreeing with Tubby on, but for me, neither moving Hoffarber to the point nor the perceived lack of usage of Armelin and Ahanmisi are one of those areas. Nonetheless, it appears that Ahanmisi will get a third consecutive start on Thursday. Good luck, young fella.
Discuss the Northwestern game in Tubby’s Barn Basketball Forum