Pregame Thoughts: Purdue 1/13/11

Gopher Basketball

#8/#8 Purdue (15-1, 4-0) takes their 10-game road winning streak into Williams Arena to face the waitress-demeaning NR/#25 Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-4, 1-3). The game will take place on Thursday, January 13 with an early start time of 6pm CT, as we cater to the demands of ESPN despite being national media darlings (see Tuesday).

The Team

In February of this past season, Robbie Hummel of the then third-ranked Boilermakers tore his right ACL while driving in the Williams Arena paint. Purdue went on to escape with a 59-58 victory over Minnesota, but lost the talented junior for the remainder of the season. After months of tough rehabilitation work, Hummel’s knee would again fail in October of 2010, resulting him being shelved for the entire 2010-11 season.

While losing a 6’8″ senior that would have been expected to average 15-20 points and 7+ rebounds per game is tough, coach Matt Painter’s team had other highly talented seniors returning. It is important to remember just how impressive Painter’s 2007 class was:

Player………………….. RSCI Ranking
E’Twaun Moore………………#23
Scott Martin…………………..#41
JuJuan Johnson………………#47
Robbie Hummel……………..#62
(Not to mention others, including Greg Hill who couldn’t qualify and is now at TCU)

Scott Martin transferred after his freshman year to Notre Dame (by the way, he is another 6’8″ kid and went to high school with Robbie Hummel… after sitting out a transfer year in South Bend, he suffered a season ending ACL injury in October 2009 and missed the entire 2009-10 season.. he is playing this season and averaging 10 points and 5 boards for #9/#11 ND).

That still leaves you with two highly-touted four year guys in Moore and Johnson. They have held up their end of the bargain, but just as importantly, there has been a supporting cast that has stepped up for the team with ugly colors, a horribly located campus, and perverted looking mascot. Nothing too special, just a lot of guys that are playing OK-enough basketball to win handily.

So who has Purdue played? If you answered nobody, you’re fairly close. The nonconference schedule saw the Boilermakers suffer a double digit loss to the Spiders of Richmond, but they did handle business against in-state rivals such as Indiana St. and IUPU-Fort Wayne. In conference, they have taken on the Big Ten’s basement minus Indiana (Michigan, Northwestern, Penn St., and Iowa), with no game being closer than 13 points.

Offensively, the keys are Moore and Johnson, although the Gophers must not let junior guard Ryne Smith continue the run he has been on. The go-to seniors will not turn it over. Defensively, this hardworking Purdue squad has done extremely well in most areas, but they have done so against mostly lesser opponents (Purdue Opponents, D1 Avg, Minn):

Stat………..Opp…..Avg…..Minn
2FG%……..42.2%…48%….51.5%
3FG%……..29.7%…34%….33.0%
OffReb%….28.4%…33%….39.6%
TO%……….24.6%…21%….20.6%
FT Rate……30.2%…38%….46.9%

The Gophers are sitting at 1-3, exactly where any reasonable person would have expected them to be. “Stealing” a win on the road would have been great, but Minnesota is looking at the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the Big Ten. A loss Thursday isn’t the end of the world (although losing Sunday’s home game against Iowa would be), but Purdue is #8 and provides an opportunity for a nice win to put on the resume and is a game the Gophers are very capable of winning.

Continue to do work on the boards. Continue to get to the line. Do not let the pesky defense of Purdue force turnovers. Cherish the ball. When we’ve got the ball on the opponent’s baseline, no one is asking for a remarkable inbounds layup or dunk… but, there is no excuse for tossing it out to halfcourt and letting the other team steal it. We cannot have three seconds in the lane calls. We cannot make softy passes into post that get easily deflected. Cherish the ball.

How well can Purdue’s perimeter defenders frustrate Nolen’s penetration and keep Hoffarber from getting halfway good looks? If Minnesota can avoid the ridiculous turnover bug, it may come down to Nolen’s play to turn this battle into victory instead of defeat. My pick: Gophers by 7.

The Players

#25 JaJuan Johnson
Johnson, a 6’10”, 220 lbs senior, has logged well over 3,000 minutes for Purdue and will reach double figures in scoring Thursday night, as he has done in every single game this season. In nearly 34 mpg, he is averaging 19.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 2.5 blocks. Getting him excited to try and block shots against Minnesota’s big men would be to our advantage. He’s done a good job of staying out of foul trouble this year, but the Gophers are certainly capable of sending him to the bench early. Conversely, Johnson is capable of sending our boys to the bench and can take a game over offensively. Averaged 15.7 and 8 in three games against us last year.

#33 E’Twaun Moore
Somehow Moore stays relatively quiet on the national scene, but he has led Purdue in scoring in each of the past three seasons. A 6’4″ senior that has averaged more than 30 minutes per game for 4 years, he can get it done in a lot of ways on the offensive end and has developed into a solid defender. Averaging 18.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 3.1 apg, his shooting from two and three this season have been better than ever. Prior to the last two games, Moore had only one game in which he scored fewer than 14 points.. in the last two combined, he’s scored just 15 on 7/25 shooting. As we saw last year, he will have the occasional stinker performance from the field (1/14 and 3/12 in two of his games vs. Minnesota last year) and the Gophers may need to Moore to puke on himself again Thursday in order win one for Goldy. He has improved again this season; very dangerous.

#24 Ryne Smith
Smith is a 6’3″ junior who is emerging as a legitimate, dangerous threat from deep. Chris Kramer is gone, but Smith is another one of those guys that gets his rocks off diving onto his knees for balls. With the John Hart injury (see below), Ryne has seen an increase in playing time and his confidence is growing. Minnesota needs to put this little dork in check or he could cause headaches. For the year, he is averaging just 7.4 ppg in 21.9 mpg; however, against the Big Ten’s backside those figures jump to 17.0 ppg in 31.0 mpg. He’s 18/27 (66.7%) from three in the Big Ten and 32/62 (51.6%) for the year. Co-Big Ten Player of the Week.

#23 Lewis Jackson
An adorable midget, the 5’9″ junior is a point guard that can distribute on offense and annoy the living hell out of the opponent when he’s on D. Due to being a horrible shooter, especially from three (nonexistent skills from deep), he looks to pass and occasionally comes up with rebounds and loose balls when you think he shouldn’t. In 23.6 mpg, he’s averaging 5.6 ppg, 4.2 apg and 3.0 rpg. Can get flustered at times and if Minnesota is able to turn Purdue over, several could come from this Lucky Charms loving loser from Decatur, IL.

#21 D.J. Byrd
Cool name, crappy player. Top 100 guy coming out of high school, the 6’5″ sophomore does a lotta nada. In 19.8 mpg, he’s averaging 5.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg and 2.1 apg. Loves to shoot it from deep, but at 30.3% for his ‘career’, we will as well.

#12 Kelsey Barlow
Despite a questionable name, Kels is a solid defender and good athlete. 6’5″ slim sophomore, he doesn’t offer a ton on offense. In 20.4 mpg, he’s averaging 5.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 1.9 apg. At times loves to give the ball away. Sprained his ankle in Purdue’s last game, but should be ready for Thursday. A gimpy Barlow would help the Gophers.

#32 John Hart
6’2″ sophomore guard, is a good looking youngster that can do a number of things offensively, including drilling the deep ball. However, he’s been out with a bad wheel for weeks and with the play of Ryne Smith, Purdue will be slow to bring him back. Still a chance he could go on Thursday, but the staff is going to be cautious and if he does make an appearance, I don’t expect it to be for significant minutes. Looks doubtful that he’ll play. In 8 games, averages 17 minutes and 8.4 points… 45.7% from 3FG.

#0 Terone Johnson
6’2″ freshman guard shooting a paltry 33.0% from the field. He’ll probably get 20+ minutes and have little to show for it. (20.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.2 apg).

#55 Sandi Marcius
This Croatian has a girl’s name and a girl’s game (no offense, girls). The 6’9″, 260 lbs frosh has one thing going for him and that’s size. He may get a few minutes against Minnesota.

#50 Travis Carroll
Another big first year guy, he’s 6’9″ and 230 lbs… just a big dude that isn’t good.

#41 Patrick Bade
6’8″, 230 lbs sophomore that is good at breathing air.

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