Gopher Basketball
A season that started with much promise has turned into one ending dangerously close to the depths of despair for both the Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-11, 6-10) and the Northwestern Wildcats (16-12, 6-11). On Wednesday, March 2, Senior Night will be celebrated at Welsh-Ryan Arena, as the winningest class in Northwestern history plays its final regular season game. Senior point guard Michael Thompson leads the school in multiple statistical categories and is a big reason why the Wildcats are 36-3 at home against unranked opponents over the last three years. However, he will not be able to say he played for the first Northwestern team to ever reach the NCAA tournament unless there is an inprobable run to the Big Ten tournament title in Indianapolis next week. Should Minnesota lose either this game or their regular season finale at home against Penn State on Sunday, they would again face Northwestern in the 8/9 Big Ten tourney game on Thursday of next week. Tipoff for Wednesday evening is set for 7:30pm and the game will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network (Tom Hart and Jim Jackson).
Before looking at Northwestern’s issues, let’s consider some of our own. Since beating the ‘Cats in Minneapolis back on January 26, the Gophers have dropped 7 of 8 games and have only a sliver of hope with regard to an at large birth. That January contest was the first in which Al Nolen was sidelined with his latest injury which has continued to keep him off the court. If he were to be cleared and able to play, it could make a significant impact on the selection committee. In fact, should Minnesota finish off the regular season with two victories, then win at least one and probably two games in the Big Ten tournament, I believe the selection committee would strongly consider the Gophers if Nolen was back for one of those games. Even a steady performance of 15-20 minutes could make a substantial difference.
I think back a couple of years to a situation Marquette University was in: late in the season, senior point guard Dominic James broke his foot and required surgery. The date was February 25th. The general expectation was that after surgery DJ was looking at a few months of rehabilitation. Most everyone accepted the belief that his season was done. Shortly after surgery, James and coach Buzz Williams tried to talk to the media with positivity despite the somber circumstance. James commented, “My playing career, as far as on the court, is over here now at Marquette.” Marquette struggled for the remainder of the season, but did reach the second round of the NCAA tournament. Early in the morning before their second round contest against Missouri, the word started spreading: Could it be another miracle of the Catholic faith? Not this time. It was simply a matter of an elite athlete healing quickly and working his tail off. Dominic James had been cleared to play.
DJ did wind up playing in that game, but let’s leave out the details (especially the part about James not being able to contribute much at all and the result of the game, which was dictated by a questionable move by Mizzou that resulted in an NCAA rule change in the offseason). The point is that a return by Nolen is possible and there still is a chance for Minnesota to reach the tourney. Remember, nearly anything is possible (for example, two weekends ago an attractive girl actually approached me and asked for my number… we did talk later that week, although it turns out my assumption that she had a thing for ugly slobs was wrong and she was simply interested in finding out more about my friend).
Then again, based on some of the hints Tubby has been giving regarding potential starters and playing time, it may be safe to lose all hope if you haven’t already. I have tremendous respect for coach Smith, but will admit that some of the lineups he puts on the floor range from puzzling me to nearly making me projectile vomit. It’s difficult to not get worked up over the late runs that teams have had to finish out games against the Gophers in the past week or so, but the reality is this team has continually had putrid spells of play all season. On Saturday, Michigan came out on fire with a 6-for-6 three-point shooting performance and an 18-10 lead about five minutes into the game. Over the next few minutes, Minnesota got back into the game as the Wolverines cooled off, missing their next three from behind the arc. With 10:29 to play in the first half, the score was 22-20 in favor of the visitors.
At this point, the home team decides that in addition to Ralph Sampson and freshman Austin Hollins, now would be a great time to put in Ahanmisi, Armelin and Dawson. Four freshman, including a second year walk-on are now in the game – and it took great concentration on my part to not spit up all over Section 103, right then and there. It would be nearly five full minutes before Ahanmisi and Dawson went back to to the bench with 5:38 remaining on the clock. Now the Michigan lead was 35-23 after a 13-3 run that my esophagus had predicted was coming. I don’t get it. I sincerely do not get it.
The Team
The first time these teams met this year, the then-#16/#18 Gophers won 81-70, scoring 31 points at the line (31/46 or 67.4%) and outscoring the ‘Cats 40-18 in the paint as well holding the edge in points off turnovers, 23-9. Of course, the game wasn’t always impressive for the fans at Williams Arena, including a brutal stretch that saw Northwestern close out the first half with an 18-4 run and a one-point lead. Each of the Minnesota upperclassmen scored at least 14 points, while Michael Thompson paced Northwestern with 18.
Most of what was discussed in the January 26 pregame remains relevant, both for the team and the individual players. Those pregame thoughts can be found HERE. Northwestern is capable of shooting the ball very well. They do not turn the ball over. Defensively, however, they have been horrendous. In the Big Ten, opponents are shooting 50.9% (56.5% 2FG, 38.8% 3FG) against the Wildcats. The Gophers shot 53.3% from the field overall the first matchup (64.7% two-point shots) and should be able to have another impressive shooting performance in Evanston. However, if Northwestern gets hot from deep, they can win. Thompson, Shurna, Crawford and Marcotullio all are capable long-range threats, but they will look to get the senior Thompson started early in his last regular season home game. JerShon Cobb, the talented athletic freshman who was just 1/8 at The Barn, will be a game time decision with a recent injury that is limiting his mobility. Davide Curletti, who is coming off an unexplainable career-high 18 point performance against Becky this past weekend, should get an opportunity to play as much as he can before getting into foul trouble. Expect Mike Capocci to start and have a better outing than he did in January, when he had no points, one rebound and one turnover in 11 minutes. With this Gophers team, the remaining games are complete toss-ups. Minnesota is the better team, but that certainly hasn’t always stopped them from losing games this year. My pick: Gophers by 6.
SNAPSHOTS FROM A CPA
Random numbers and miscellaneous data
Since Nolen’s injury, the Gophers are 2-7. In the two wins, the average margin of victory was 14 points and the freshman played an average of 30 minutes combined. In the seven losses, the margin of defeat has averaged 7 points and the freshman have played an average of 53 minutes combined.
Big Ten Minutes/Game Leaders – Conference Only
1.Battle, Talor-PSU………..38.88
2.Thompson, Michael-NU..38.29
3.Diebler,Jon-OSU…………37.69
4.Taylor, Jordan-WIS……..37.56
5.Johnson, JaJuan-PUR….36.12
6.Hoffarber, Blake-MINN….35.88
7.Novak, Zack-MICH………35.59
8.Lucas, Kalin-MSU……….35.44
9.Gatens, Matt-IOWA……..35.31
10.Morris, Darius-MICH……35.29
11.Leuer, Jon-WIS………….35.19
12.Moore, E’Twaun-PUR…..34.81
Davis, Mike-ILL……………34.81
14.Cartwright, Bryce-IOWA.34.50
15.Brooks, Jeff-PSU………..34.47
Discuss the Northwestern game or any of the above at Tubby’s Barn Basketball Forum