Gopher Basketball
In conference play, Minnesota has dropped all three of its road games, but those contests were arguably the three toughest ones of entire season (@Purdue 1/29 remains). On the other hand, the perfect 3-0 home record includes the two easiest matchups on the Big Ten schedule (Indiana and Iowa). Now, the Gophers will play in a number of games that could easily go either way and will determine whether this is a 5th or 6th place Big Ten team that has some doubt on their mind come early March, or if this is a team that is sitting in 3rd or 4th place, looking forward to their first round matchup in the NCAA tournament.
The Team
Michigan has had relatively good performances against top notch competition, including Syracuse (3 point loss), Kansas (7 point overtime loss) and Ohio State (4 point loss), but they are currently on a five game losing streak, having most recently been beaten up at Indiana and at Northwestern. The Gophers need to kick “˜em while they’re down and get out of Ann Arbor with a victory.
This is a very young team that has no seniors on its roster and will start three freshmen.
Defensively, the Wolverines have been nothing short of atrocious over the past several weeks and unless they are clicking on offense, the Gophers should be able to handle coach Beilein’s boys. Michigan does at times collapse on the ball down low and leave shooters open on the perimeter. Will Minnesota’s poor shooters launch from three? My preference would be to impose our will in the paint ““ Michigan is not a physical team and has little depth inside.
Minnesota got a taste of what they’ll see from Michigan’s offense when they took on Eastern Kentucky earlier this year (coach Jeff Neubauer, who worked under Beilein, runs a similar offense). After some struggles in the first half that saw the Gophers carry just a 3 point lead into the break, Minnesota was able to heat up on offense and win 71-58. Eastern Kentucky shot under 36% for the game.
Some things to know about Michigan:
– Shooting & tempo: they shoot a ton of three-pointers – 44% 3FG/FG. As discussed later in the Players section, they have a number of willing shooters although the team’s 3FG% is just 33.2. Michigan plays at a very slow pace, except for the occasional ugly 24-foot bomb attempt from Hardaway Jr. with 32 seconds still on the shot clock.
– Turnovers: They do not turn the ball over ““ 17.3% TORate (Minnesota is at 20.2%, which is still below D1 average). At the same time, Michigan is not a team that creates a lot of havoc on defense (19.0% opponent TORate). With the slower pace, cherishing possessions becomes even more important for Minnesota.
– Rebounding: OR% of 28.7 is poor and this is not a team that will crash the boards. With the volume of threes shot by Michigan, Minnesota should try to run in transition after long rebounds, which may result in an open man (i.e. Hoffarber) with a great chance to convert a quick three.
The Wolverines have done a good job, especially with their lack of inside presence, on the defensive boards. Their opponents are bringing down just 28.3% of their misses and there has been only one game all year when the opposition has had an OR% of more than 35%. This is where Minnesota should let them know how it’s done. The Gophers’ OR% is 39.1% for the year and there have been only 5 games where that percentage was lower than 35%.
– Free throws: Michigan has some fantastic free throw shooters, but they are unable to get to the line (27.3% FTRate is about as low as it gets). The kids in maize and blue have been successful in keeping the other team off the line (30.3%), but I expect Minnesota (47.7%) to get plenty of charity stripe attempts.
Unless Michigan is shooting lights out and can keep Minnesota off the offensive boards and free throw line, I see the Gophers earning their first conference road win of the year. My pick: Gophers by 4.
The Players
#4 Darius Morris
This sophomore from California is the lead guard and has good size at 6’4″. After a nondescript freshman season (4.4 points, 2.6 assists, 1.8 rebounds per game in 24.3 mpg), Morris has stepped forward as a leader, scoring and distributing at a high level (34.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 7.1 apg and 3.5 rpg). Morris is able to see over smaller defenders and has been finding teammates very well. He can create his own shot on offense and converts 56% of his two point attempts. He’ll fire up a couple of treys every game, but has been poor from distance (12/46, 26.1%).
#0 Zack Novak
Only 6’4″, the junior isn’t afraid to mix it up against bigger players. In 33.6 mpg, he’s averaging 9.2 points and an impressive 6.5 rebounds. The hardworking lefty most often shoots from deep, where he is converting 36.4%. He’s not a great shooter, but can get hot (as he did as a freshman against Minnesota, going 6/10 from three one night).
#10 Tim Hardaway Jr.
Just a freshman, this son of a five-time NBA All-star isn’t shy when it comes to shooting. His 11.1 ppg is second among Big Ten freshman. The 6’5″ Hardaway is playing 27+ mpg and could turn out to be a fairly good one. At this point, his shot selection often leaves something to be desired and he’s only shooting 35.4% (30/104, 28.8% 3FG).
#52 Jordan Morgan
Morgan, a 6’8″, 240 lbs redshirt freshman, is the only “œbig guy” that Beilein can put on the floor. Has a tendency to pick up dumb fouls and has been eaten up while on defense a number of times this year. Not a shot blocker, he has no answer for the aggression of an Mbakwe or Iverson. Take it to his stupid face. (23.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 57.6 FG%).
#23 Evan Smotrycz
Pronounced “œSmaht-Trich”, this east coast frosh has added some meat to his frame, but is still a bit slight for a 6’9″ guy. Evan is a very good shooter and I think he’ll be a solid Big Ten player in future years. For now, he’s getting about 20 mpg and averages 6.5 points. Can deliver from outside (26/65, 40.0% 3FG), but offers very little when it comes to rebounding or defense, both of which are generally deplorable.
#1 Stu Douglass
Stu is a little 6’3″ geek that doesn’t offer a lot. A junior “œleader”, Stu is averaging 7.7 ppg in 27.8 mpg. He is another one that shoots mostly from beyond the arc and is enjoying his best year with a 39.2 3FG% (31/79).
#15 Jon Horford
His dad played professionally and big brother Al is currently in the league, but I have my doubts Lil Jon will ever get there. What?! 6’9″ and frail, Horford hits the court for less than ten minutes a night. He isn’t quite ready for this level of competition, but may get a little more time against the Gophers as his length enables him to rebound and block shots.
#13 Matt Vogrich
Matt is a 6’4″ silver-spoon rich boy from Lake Forest, IL. Despite being a dork who grew up in a million dollar home, the sophomore does show decent aggression at times. He is yet another player that will fire it up from distance. In 14.7 mpg, he’s averaging 3.6 ppg and has shot 34.9% from deep (15/43). During this week’s game at Northwestern, Vogrich was at the foul line and the fans at Welsh-Ryan arena started up a wonderful “œJust-in Bie-ber” chant. It was much deserved and I hope the Gopher fans at Crisler do the same, even though the kid’s lid looks more like a dirty mop covered in molasses and vomit than it does Bieber’s hair.
#20 Josh Bartelstein
If this 6’2″ sophomore walk-on gets any playing time at all, it will be for 2 minutes, max. His father is a big time sports agent who has brokered many deals, but perhaps his most unlikely and impressive accomplishment ever was getting his kid accepted as a walk-on for this team. Terrible.
#2 Jordan Dumars
Speaking of walk-ons, Dumars (son of Joe) is now eligible to play after quitting on South Florida after his first semester there a year ago. However, the youngster has been hampered with injuries and unless about 4 guys have season ending injuries or quit the team, Dumars will not see the floor for Michigan until the 2011-12 season.
Who is coming next year?
Michigan has two 2011 commits and they are solid.
Trey Burke is a 6’1″ point guard from Ohio who plays under Jared Sullinger’s father at Northland.
Michigan product Carlton Brundidge is an undersized shooting guard at just 6’1″, but he is a great looking prospect that can attack the rim. With the number of current Wolverines who prefer to shy away from the paint and contact, Brundidge will be a welcomed addition.
Note to the University of Minnesota
In January 2009, the University of Michigan Board of Regents approved a Basketball Player Development Center, which is on track to open later this calendar year. The cost is $23.2 million and the facility will have 57,000 square feet and include two practice courts, basketball offices, meeting rooms, film rooms, weight room, athletic training room, equipment room and new team locker-rooms.
In addition, this past October the Board of Regents approved the first phase of renovations to Crisler arena at a cost of $20 million. This phase addressed several infrastructure needs. On Thursday of this week, the Board approved the second phase that adds 63,000 square feet for new fan entrances, retail spaces and ticketing areas, as well as private club space. “œAthletic resources” and gifts will fund the $52 million project.
Don’t Let The Door Hit You”¦
Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were fun players to watch, except when Minnesota was playing them. Harris entered the NBA draft after his junior year and went undrafted, but has found a home in Cleveland. After little playing time early on in the year, he has recently been seeing a lot of floor time for the Cavs. In the month of January, Harris has been playing nearly 30 mpg and is averaging 10.7 ppg.
Sims has been performing at a high level for the Maine Red Claws of the D-League. In 23 games, DeShawn is averaging 17 points and 8 boards per contest.