Post-Week 7 Field of 12 Projection: Wiil We Have Any 3-Loss At-Large Teams in the College Football Playoff?

This was initially posted in our message board and the accompanying conversation can be found here:

(45) Post-Week 7 Field of 12 Projection: Wiil We Have Any 3-Loss At-Large Teams in the Playoff? | GopherHole Message Board Community

Little by little, the field is starting to take shape. Tricky dealing with the current 1-loss at-large teams, but it’ll get easier as overall strength of schedule, quality of wins/losses, and “bad losses” come into focus.

I’m very curious to find out if we’ll have any 3-loss at-large teams. Right now my gut says we’ll have at least one. If you’re a 2-loss at-large, you better have a signature win in your back pocket.

Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by “best conference record”, hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. If tied, I first determine auto qualifier using head to head (if applicable), then if no head to head, by most deserving.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through October 13) –– * denotes utomatic qualifier
ACC (2): *Clemson (5-1, 4-0), Miami (6-0, 2-0)

Big Ten (3): *Oregon (6-0, 3-0), Penn State (6-0, 3-0), Ohio State (5-1, 2-1)

Big XII (2): *Iowa State (6-0, 3-0), BYU (6-0, 3-0)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (5-1, 2-0)

SEC (4): *Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0), Texas (6-0, 2-0), Alabama (5-1, 2-1), Georgia (5-1, 2-1)

Last 2 In: Ohio State, Miami

First 4 Out (alphabetical): Indiana (6-0, 3-0), Kansas State (5-1, 2-1), LSU (5-1, 2-0), Pitt (6-0, 2-0)

Other Conference Leaders Under Consideration (4): Army (6-0, 5-0/American), Liberty (5-0, 3-0/Conference USA), Buffalo (4-2, 2-0/MAC), UL-Monroe (5-1, 3-0/Sun Belt)

Movin’ In (3): Boise State, Georgia, Iowa State

Movin’ Out (3): Army, Indiana, Texas Tech

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)

#9 BYU @ #8 Georgia
#12 Miami @ #5 Texas

#10 Ohio State @ #7 Alabama
#11 *Boise State @ #6 Penn State

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Georgia/#9 BYU winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Texas A&M vs. #5 Texas/#12 Miami winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *Iowa State vs. #7 Alabama/#10 Ohio State winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)
#3 *Clemson vs. #6 Penn State/#11 *Boise State winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) — Atlanta, GA

Power 4 Head to Head Standings (through Oct. 13) — Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1 Notre Dame (4-0)
2 Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. Oregon State (1-1)
5. ACC (8-11)
6. Big Ten (7-10)
7. Big XII (7-11)

Week 8 Head to Head
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech

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