Part 4: One & Dones-Friend or Foes to a College Program?

By: GopherHole |

Gopher Basketball

The One and Done-Friend or Foe to a College Program?

Do you pine for the days when college basketball was ruled by upperclassmen, the most talented young basketball players sticking around to their junior and senior seasons, developing teamwork and chemistry over several seasons to pit their well-oiled machine against other well-oiled machines in college arenas throughout the country? Consider that not so long ago Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, Alonzo Mourning, Derrick Coleman and a host of others exhausted their eligibility; Michael Jordan, Clyde Drexler, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O´Neal lead the contingent that considered three years of college enough; and on rare occasions, you would have basketball savants like Isiah Thomas and Kenny Anderson who deemed two years of college ball sufficient.

The paradigm shifted in 1991 when five freshman, already dubbed the “œFab Five” by the media and fans, were inserted into the starting lineup together for Michigan, an unprecedented move that caused tremors throughout the basketball establishment; when the Wolverines reached the national title game that same season with those five freshman in the starting lineup, it signaled a seismic change to the college game. Michigan lost that game of course, and subsequently lost the national title game the following year too. Chris Webber declared for the NBA draft after that season and the Fab Five had lost its shiniest member. They didn´t win a national title, they didn´t even win a Big Ten title, and today their legacy is tainted due to the Ed Martin scandal. But the “œFab Five” cast a wide net on prep basketball players that continues to affect the game today.

Do you think I´m overstating the impact that the “œFab Five” had? Consider that when they burst onto the scene, Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury were freshmen in high school, already prodigious basketball talents with an eye towards the future. What the Fab Five was showcasing for Garnett, Marbury, and every other talented prep basketball player with the NBA as their dream was that youth did not have to wait, that if you were talented enough you demanded playing time and attention. A small trickle of college standouts-Jason Kidd, Anfernee Hardaway-followed Webber´s lead by leaving college after their sophomore year until 1995 when the story that was developing was the floodgates opening to sophomores leaving college-Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse. However, that story was soon overwhelmed and forgotten when Kevin Garnett was unable to meet the NCAA eligibility criteria and declared for the NBA draft directly out of high school, the first player to so since Daryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby in 1975. Garnett was joining the NBA two years after Webber and one year after the other Fab Five standouts, Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose.

Garnett and Marbury-Inextricably Linked

While Garnett was gaining considerable attention with his direct ascent to the NBA, Stephon Marbury was headed to the Rambling Wreck of Georgia Tech for his brief college career. Although Garnett seemed to choose his path to the NBA as a plan B, Marbury´s plan was carefully calculated. Coming from a family with talented brothers whose basketball careers got stuck due to academic difficulties, the college plan was always a short-term one for Marbury. Along with Shareef Abdul-Rahim, Marbury broke down another wall when he declared for the NBA draft after his freshman year at Georgia Tech.

College basketball had went from a game where the best players stuck around through at least their junior year to one where players would soon be leaving after a year or two, if they decided to go to college at all. While Garnett and Marbury teamed together for the Minnesota Timberwolves, a trickle of players with one year or no college experience began entering the NBA draft and that trickle soon turned into a flood. For the purposes of this article, the pathway forged by Marbury is the one that will be closely examined from this point forward.

When you look at the history of the one year college player, it does not have the smooth ascendancy of the preps to pros movement revitalized by Garnett. Instead it offers years where only one player will choose the NBA, intermixed with years where there is a spurt of players choosing the NBA. Between 1996 and 2006, there were never more than four players in a year that chose one year of college and then the NBA. Of course, this was due in large part to a considerable number of players who were electing to go directly to the pros. The one year players from that period were an interesting mix of elite talent and questionable decision makers. As you will see below, the impact on their respective college programs was sometimes negligible and sometimes downright harmful:

Year    Player    College    Record    Tourney    Record following year
1996    Stephon Marbury    Georgia Tech    24-12    Sweet 16    9-18
1996    Shareef Abdul Rahim    Cal    17-11    Round of 64    23-9
1997    Tim Thomas    Villanova    24-10    Round of 32    12-17
1998    Larry Hughes    St. Louis    22-11    Round of 32    15-16
1998    Ricky Davis    Iowa    20-11    NIT    20-10
1999    Corey Maggette    Duke    37-2    National Runnerup    29-5
2000    Donnell Harvey    Florida    29-8    National Runnerup    24-7
2000    Demarr Johnson    Cincy    29-4    round of 32    25-10
2000    Jamal Crawford    Michigan    15-14       10-18
2001    Zach Randolph    Michigan St.    28-5    Final Four    19-12
2001    Eddie Griffin    Seton Hall    16-16       12-19
2001    Omar Cook    St. John´s    14-15       20-12
2001    Rodney White    UNC-Charlotte    22-11    round of 32    18-12
2002    Dajuan Wagner    Memphis    27-9    NIT    23-7
2003    Carmelo Anthony    Syracuse    30-5    National Champs    23-8
2003    Chris Bosh    Georgia Tech    16-15       28-10
2004    Luol Deng    Duke    31-6    Final Four    27-6
2004    Kris Humphries    Minnesota    12-18       21-11
2004    Trevor Ariza    UCLA    11-17       18-11
2004    Sean Banks    Memphis    22-8    round of 32    22-16
2005    Marvin Williams    UNC    33-4    National Champs    23-8
2005    Darius Washington    Memphis    22-16    NIT    33-4
2006    Shawne Williams    Memphis    33-4    Great Eight    33-4

A significant change occurred after the 2006 season, which was the NBA´s decision that players must be at least one year out of high school before declaring for the NBA draft. That caused the predictable result of several players opting for the NBA draft after just one season these last two years:

Year Player College Record Tourney Record following year
2007    Greg Oden    Ohio State    35-4    National Runnerup    24-13
2007    Mike Conley    Ohio State    35-4    National Runnerup    24-13
2007    Daequan Cook    Ohio State    35-4    National Runnerup    24-13
2007    Kevin Durant    Texas    25-10    round of 32    31-7
2007    Brandan Wright    UNC    31-7    Great Eight    36-3
2007    Spencer Hawes    Washington    19-13       16-17
2007    Thaddeus Young    G. Tech    20-12    round of 64    15-17
2007    Javaris Crittendon    G. Tech    20-12    round of 64    15-17
2008    O.J. Mayo    USC    21-12    round of 64   
2008    Davon Jefferson    USC    21-12    round of 64   
2008    Kevin Love    UCLA    35-4    Final Four   
2008    Eric Gordon    Indiana    25-8    round of 64   
2008    Michael Beasley    Kansas St.    21-12    round of 32   
2008    Derrick Rose    Memphis    38-2    National Runnerup   
2008    Jeryd Bayless    Arizona    19-15    round of 64   
2008    Dontae Greene    Syracuse    21-14    NIT   
2008    J.J. Hickson    N.C. State    15-16   
2008    Kosta Koufos    Ohio State    24-13    NIT   
2008    Anthony Randolph    LSU    13-18   
2008    DeAndre Jordan    Texas A&M    25-11    round of 32   

The Myth of Carmelo
When you look at the list above, the name that almost certainly leaps out at you is Carmelo Anthony who lead a young team to the national championship his freshman year. It was an astounding accomplishment and it lead to many talking heads exclaiming that college basketball was getting even younger, because the champions would now be a rotation of teams featuring the elite freshman and sophomores in the land. Instead of a trend, the 2003 Syracuse team was an aberration, on the opposite end of the spectrum from the 2002 Maryland championship team which featured no McDonald´s All-Americans, the first such champion in many years to claim that feat. Both of those teams were great exceptions to the rules of college basketball.

Has college basketball gotten younger and is it strongly affected by the NBA entry rule put into place after 2006? Most certainly. But winning teams, teams that go deep into the NCAA tournament and win championships will continue to rely heavily on veteran presence. Take a look at the most successful names on the list above (in relation to their team´s advancement in the NCAA tournament). UNC´s Marvin Williams was the sixth man on the 2005 champions, as were Zach Randolph, Corey Maggette, and Donnell Harvey for their teams. Kevin Love and Luol Deng were important, critical starters for their respective Final Four teams, but they were surrounded by veterans, particularly in the backcourt. Derrick Rose? He stepped into a veteran team and even though he was Memphis´ point guard, he had a lot of backcourt help in Chris Douglas Roberts and Antonio Anderson. Ohio State with Oden and Conley? They were definitely the deserving headliners of that Buckeye squad, but they would not have achieved what they did without veteran guards Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler. In fact, looking back at Syracuse´s national championship, it is not the fact that Anthony was the best player on the team that is astounding, but rather that the primary ball handler for that team was another freshman, Gerry McNamara.

There are several highly touted players on the list above whose one year college career was mediocre, at best. Whether due to poor chemistry, poor coaching, bad breaks, or whatever the case may be, you can find a common thread throughout all those disappointing teams-the incoming stud freshman (or freshmen) either was looked to or assumed he was the go-to guy. Consider another Baltimore product, Kevin Durant and his 2007 season with Texas. Durant was a sublime talent, perhaps the most highly skilled talent to enter the college game since Garnett declared directly for the NBA draft. Durant stepped onto the court for a Longhorns team that had said goodbye to their starting five from the previous season. He was joined by two other freshman of rare talent-point guard D.J. Augustin (selected ninth in this past year´s NBA draft) and forward Damion James (projected to go eighth in this year´s draft by nbadraft.net). Three talents worthy of being drafted in the first ten picks of the NBA draft, one of whom was a once in a generation talent. Yet Texas still lost 10 games in 2007 and did not make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Last year, minus Durant and with a more seasoned team the Longhorns had a better record and advanced further into the NCAA tournament.

A Return to the Salad Days?
That´s not to say that the college game will ever return back to the point where it is dominated by seniors and juniors. Freshman will continue to play key roles, if not starring roles on most quality teams. Their contributions could be dominant, such as Oden, Conley, Rose, and Love, or they could be more subtle, such as Kansas´ Cole Aldrich, whose performance off the bench in the Final Four game against Tyler Hansbrough and North Carolina was a key in their advancement to the national championship game. Whatever the case may be, recent history tells us that Final Four teams will be a mix of veterans and youth. The following data looks at the Final Four teams over the last five years and takes a look at the top six players (determined by minutes) for each squad.

2008

Kansas    3 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores
Memphis    1 senior, 3 juniors, 1 sophomore, 1 freshman
UNC    3 juniors, 3 sophomores
UCLA    3 juniors, 2 sophomores, 1 freshman

2007

Florida    2 seniors, 4 juniors
UCLA    2 juniors, 4 sophomores
Georgetown    4 juniors, 1 sophomore, 1 freshman
Ohio State    2 seniors, 1 junior, 3 freshman

2006

Florida    2 juniors, 4 sophomores
UCLA    2 seniors, 2 sophomores, 2 freshman
LSU    1 senior, 1 junior, 1 sophomore, 3 freshman
George Mason    2 seniors, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores

2005

UNC    2 seniors, 3 juniors, 1 freshman
Illinois    3 seniors, 3 juniors
Louisville    2 seniors, 3 juniors, 1 freshman
Michigan State    2 seniors, 3 juniors, 1 sophomore

2004

UConn    1 senior, 2 juniors, 2 sophomores, 1 freshman
Georgia Tech    2 seniors, 3 juniors, 1 sophomore
Duke    1 senior, 1 junior, 3 sophomores, 1 freshman
Oklahoma State    3 juniors, 3 seniors

How bout that? If the Fab Five of 1992 were to appear fifteen years later on the scene, they would still be a curiosity. We can speculate how the record books may have looked different if LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire and others were forced to spend a year on a college campus, but that is speculation. We do have two years of data to consider and while we can see how much impact elite freshman talent can have, we can also see that talents like Kevin Durant and O.J. Mayo do not mean programs can punch their ticket to the Final Four.

How does this relate to our Minnesota Gophers?
In 2009, the Gophers will welcome to campus their two highest regarded recruits in some time. While it may seem unlikely that either Royce White or Rodney Williams will be one and done players, the possibility certainly exists, especially when you see some of the names above who decided to head to the NBA after just one season. Minnesota´s recent history with early entrants has ranged from mediocre (Rick Rickert) to disastrous (Kris Humphries). If White and Williams do arrive on campus fresh off a senior year full of accomplishments and eyes towards the NBA, how will the program weather that?

There´s no way to determine that, but when you consider the factors in place where the one and dones have typically had the most team success, I think you´re looking at these three factors: an established, strong head coach; a presence of veterans on the team; and strong leadership and understanding of the game from the lead guard position. It seems pretty obvious, since those factors seem to be a key for any success on the college level, but the commitment of an elite recruit can sometimes mirror a winning start at the casino for a fanbase-unreasonable expectations and a desire to overlook some stark realities about their situation.

It´s safe to say, our head coach meets the first criteria listed. When White and Williams join the Gophers, there will be three seniors (Damian Johnson, Devron Bostick, Lawrence Westbrook), four juniors (Al Nolen, Blake Hoffarber, Trevor Mbawkwe and Paul Carter) and three sophomores (Devoe Joseph, Colton Iverson, and Ralph Sampson III) on the team, if all goes as planned. It is a nice balance between the classes with quite a presence of upperclassmen. Finally, the backcourt; the Gophers will have a senior, junior, and sophomore as primary ball handlers, all of whom should be well immersed and familiar with handling the ball, distributing the ball and Big Ten competition. It looks like this Gopher squad is well prepared to add its elite recruits and thrive with their additions. Only time will tell, and Gopher fans can hardly wait for that time to arrive.

““ Related article: Part 5 “” An Interview with Dave Telep
““ Related article: Part 3 “” Big Ten Recruiting This Decade ““ The Best & the Busts
““ Related article: Part 2 “” How Do Our Recruits Compare?
““ Related article: Part 1 “” What Do These Recruiting Classes Mean for Minnesota?

Talk about college basketball on our Gopher Basketball message board.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *