Gopher Basketball
Taking a look at the Big Ten over the last ten years, you can see some prime examples of how recruiting can lead to great things and how it also doesn’t guarantee success. Here are the numbers of Top 100 recruits for each Big Ten program spanning the last ten years:
Top 100 recruits, 1999-2008
| Michigan State | 26 | 6 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Michigan | 20 | 2 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Ohio State | 19 | 4 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Indiana | 15 | 3 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Illinois | 13 | 2 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Wisconsin | 11 | 1 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Iowa | 10 | |||
| Minnesota | 8 | 2 McDonald’s All-Americans | ||
| Purdue | 6 | |||
| Penn State | 1 | |||
| Northwestern | 0 |
Now let’s see how those recruits have translated to on the court production. I chose the years 2000-2008, since the recruits listed above could have only started playing in 2000. (The list above does include 2008 recruits who will be freshman this year however).
Big Ten Standings, 2000-08
| 1. | Wisconsin | 101-45 | .691 | 9 NCAA berths | ||||
| 2. | Illinois | 99-47 | .678 | 8 NCAA berths | ||||
| 2. | Michigan State | 99-47 | .678 | 9 NCAA berths | ||||
| 4. | Ohio State | 93-53 | .636 | 5 NCAA berths | ||||
| 5. | Indiana | 89-57 | .609 | 7 NCAA berths | ||||
| 6. | Purdue | 70-76 | .479 | 4 NCAA berths | ||||
| 7. | Iowa | 67-79 | .459 | 3 NCAA berths | ||||
| 8. | Michigan | 58-88 | .397 | |||||
| 9. | Minnesota | 55-91 | .377 | 1 NCAA berth | ||||
| 10. | Penn State | 36-110 | .246 | 1 NCAA berth | ||||
| 10. | Northwestern | 36-110 | .246 |
I´m no statistician, but I do believe there is a statistical principal where you throw out the exceptional, both positive and negative, when analyzing data. If that´s the case, we would take Wisconsin (positive) and Michigan (negative) out of the equation and what would we have? Two lists that come close to mirroring one another, with Michigan State at the top in both recruiting and results and Penn State and Northwestern at the bottom in both categories. The other programs match up pretty closely between recruiting and results, with Illinois and Purdue overachieving with their talent and Iowa and Minnesota underachieving, but the difference is minimal.
Let´s look at the exceptions now, which disprove the theory that college basketball is merely about recruiting talent. Wisconsin should be a middle of the road Big Ten program according to the recruiting rankings, but between excellent coaching and equally superb player evaluation, they have been the dominant program in the Big Ten this decade. As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Badgers will be formidable within the conference as long as Bo Ryan is running the program. Ohh, and among the eleven Top 100 recruits he has brought to Madison? Five of those players are on this year’s roster, meaning that he is only increasing the talent base of his program. Feel free to despise Bo Ryan, but you certainly must respect what he has done in building the Badgers. Retirement cannot come soon enough for Badger Bo. Michigan, led by Brian Elerbe and Tommy Amaker, gathered up great prep talent but could not but together one team worthy of the NCAA tournament. Ironically enough, I expect Michigan’s chances of ending their NCAA drought to improve greatly with John Beilein, while their Top 100 recruits diminish. Beilein has proven that he can win in a difficult conference with lightly regarded recruits, so long as they fit into his unique system.
When you examine the lists above, there is plenty of interesting information available.
Michigan State has averaged 2.6 Top 100 recruits per year; Izzo and his staff have excelled at gathering as much talent as possible, recognizing that some of the prospects will not pan out. Their company at the top of the Big Ten (Wisconsin and Illinois) has not been able to take the Spartans approach, yet show similar or superior league results. (Bear in mind that Michigan State has not won a Big Ten regular season title since 2001, while Wisconsin has won four titles and Illinois has won three titles in that same timespan*). Michigan State´s strong showings in March have saved Tom Izzo from incisive criticism.
With Illinois, the statistics do lie somewhat; after the Dee Brown/Deron Williams era, the talent level dropped off, bottoming out last season in a 5-13 league campaign. Starting with the 2009 recruiting class, Bruce Weber has rededicated himself to the recruiting trail with a vengeance, but the Illini are likely to slide behind Michigan State (and perhaps even Ohio State) in overall league records in the next couple years.
Ohio State is in an interesting position, having quickly become a school where “œone and dones” flock towards (four in the last two seasons, with two strong possibilities to go that route in this freshman class). While no one could argue the results from 2007, the Buckeyes struggled last season with some very good talent and will be challenged to establish some stability in their program when so many of their recruits are eyeing a short stint before leaping to the NBA .
I would be hard pressed to think of a basketball program that has had a more tumultuous decade then Indiana-four head coaches, an ugly end to each of the first three departures with the most recent coaching change spurring an unprecedented player exodus from the program. Yet, the Hoosiers continue to attract talent, win, and go to the NCAA tournament. The latter two will not be happening this season, but it will not be long until Tom Crean has them relevant again. I mentioned yesterday how important it is for a basketball program to reach an elite level; Indiana is proof of this. A lesser program would be crushed by this past decade.
As the recruiting statistics skew matters on Illinois, they particularly do so for Purdue. Of those six top 100 recruits, four of them arrived together in 2007. It is astounding that the Boilermakers had only two Top 100 talents come to campus from 1999-2006, yet they still appeared in the NCAA Tournament three times over that time span. Of course, they had a great dip in their program towards the end of the Gene Keady era, and those four 2007 recruits led Purdue to a 15-3 league record last year, significantly aiding their Big Ten record this decade and making it look more respectable. Expect Matt Painter to continue the uptick in Top 100 recruits at West Lafayette.
Iowa has not attracted great talent and the talent they have attracted has translated into limited success. Their recruiting classes of 2001 and 2002 serves as a cautionary tale for a program reliant on one or two solid years of recruiting. Their 2001 class brought Pierre Pierceand Marcus Sommerville; the 2002 class gave the Hawkeyes Greg Brunner and Jeff Horner, two solid four year guys. Adam Haluska transferred in a year later. Those five players could have been the core for great things; instead Pierce started committing felonies, Sommerville transferred, and what remained of this promising team ended up making it to two NCAA tournaments, losing their opening round games in 2006 and 2007, with 2007 being particularly painful, suffering a defeat to 14th seeded Northwestern State. Steve Alford left, Todd Lickliter arrived and it is hard to imagine the Hawkeyes contending in the upper division of the Big Ten anytime soon.
Minnesota is emerging from the abyss where two McDonald´s All-Americans produced nothing more than unmet expectations, victim to a roster in flux, mediocre guards, and an overmatched head coach.
Northwestern and Penn State? What can be said, other than the basement will be theirs to fight over for at least the next decade, unless something drastic changes.
Ten Top 100 recruits that would have a coach contacting his real estate agent
Whenever a program gathers in a Top 100 recruit, the coaches and fans exult-the assumption is this player will be major piece in the puzzle towards Big Ten championships, NCAA berths, and even trips to the Final Four. Things don’t always work out so well, unfortunately. Here are ten players for whom the expectations far exceeded the actual results:
Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (#2 class of ’01) It may seem harsh to have a 4 year contributor to a Final Four squad on this list, but keep in mind where Torbert was ranked and also consider that he only averaged over 10 points once in his Spartan career, as a junior. Some of the players listed behind Torbert in the class of 2001 were Tyson Chandler, T.J. Ford, Josh Childress, and Ben Gordon. Torbert was a nice role player on some talented squads, but certainly not what you’d expect from the #2 recruit in the nation.
Brandon Cotton, Michigan State (#23 class of ’03) A McDonald’s All-American, Cotton was expected to take the reins from Marcus Taylor and direct the Spartan ship, but not long into his freshman season he was leaving East Lansing to play for Detroit Mercy.
JaQuan Hart, Michigan (#26 class of ’01) Among many Wolverine disappointments, Hart ranks high on the list. Hart never actually made it onto campus due to his academics and he ended up surfacing at Eastern Michigan where he had a non-descript career.
Pierre Pierce, Iowa (#32 class of ’01) No one could question Pierce’s talent; it was his off court activities, resulting in two arrests and eventual dismissal from the Hawkeyes, that contributed mightily to Steve Alford’s struggles in Iowa City.
Dommanic Ingerson, Michigan (#42 class of ’01) Ingerson was another highly touted recruit who did make it to campus and had a solid freshman campaign for the Wolverines, averaging 8.5 points per game, but he chose to transfer to San Francisco after that year, evidently not seeing eye to eye with coach Tommy Amaker (Ingerson had been recruited by Brian Elerbe).
Richardo Billings, Ohio State (#69 class of ’02) Billings did not qualify as a freshman, but stayed with the Buckeyes. As a sophomore he averaged 3.8 points per game before transferring to Oakland University where he finished his career.
Aliou Kane, Minnesota (#75 class of ’02) Gopher fans remember this recruit well-he was the first Top 100 recruit that Dan Monson brought on board and gave us hope that it meant bigger and wider reaching things for the Gopher program. Unfortunately, he was more memorable for that than anything displayed on the basketball court, transferring to a junior college after his redshirt freshman season.
Marcus Sommerville, Iowa (#66 class of ’01) You may remember Sommerville, but it was not for anything he did with the Hawkeyes. Instead he became a star for Bradley, leading them along with Patrick O’Bryant on their surprising Sweet 16 run in 2006. Instead of teaming with Jeff Horner and Greg Brunner and perhaps making Steve Alford’s life more pleasant in Iowa City, Sommerville excelled outside of the Big Ten.
Wesley Washington, Minnesota (#82 class of ’03) Expectations for Washington were great on the Minnesota campus, but he never made it past admissions. He returned home and surfaced at Oregon State, where he was eventually dismissed for academic reasons.
Eli Holman, Indiana (#94 class of ´07) Holman barely got off the bench his freshman year with the Hoosiers, but it was his departure from Indiana that will be his legacy. In his meeting with Tom Crean to announce his decision to leave the program, Crean had to contact campus security to have Holman escorted from his office when Holman began escalating, culminating in a broken flower pot. There were higher ranked “œbusts” than Holman I could have offered for the 10th spot, but none left their Big Ten school quite as memorably.
10 Big Ten recruits outside of the Top 100 who would have gotten you a parade
Stop me if you´ve heard this before-recruiting is an imperfect science. Rather than spout clichés at you, I will give you ten players who fell outside of the national rankings to make their mark at their university, on the Big Ten, and beyond in several cases. Hopefully Al Nolen, Lawrence Westbrook, Damian Johnson, Blake Hoffarber, Colton Iverson, and/or Justin Cobbs will deserve a spot on this roster by the time their career at the “œU” is finished:
Luther Head, Illinois (class of ’01) Head was a key member of arguably the best Big Ten team since Michigan State won the title in 2000. Along with his Illini teammates he took the team to their first national championship game in school history where they lost to North Carolina. Head was a consensus 2nd team All-American in 2005 and was drafted in the first round of the draft by the Houston Rockets (pick #24).
Chris Hill, Michigan State (class of ´02) Surrounded by more hyped preps like Torbert, Alan Anderson, Maurice Ager, Paul Davis, and Shannon Brown, Hill created his own niche at Michigan State becoming an integral part of those powerful Spartan squads and finishing as the #13 All Time leading scorer in Michigan State´s storied history.
Jitim Young, Northwestern (class of ´00)For a program that consistently struggles in basketball, Young was one of Northwestern´s all time best, finishing his career ranked sixth in scoring with over 1500 points and leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, and steals both his junior and senior seasons. For a program with limited success, Young lead the Wildcats in 2004 to their first 8 win season in Big Ten play since 1968.
Terence Dials, Ohio State (class of ´01) Dials had some fans coming out of high school, showing up on a couple top 100 lists, but I would guess no one would expect the production that he showcased for the Buckeyes over his career, culminating in the Big Ten Player of the Year award in 2006, correlating with Ohio State winning the conference that year.
Geary Claxton, Penn State (class of ´04)Despite Penn State´s awful record through the decade, one clear bright spot was the consistent excellence of Claxton, who starred for the Nittany Lions when he arrived his freshman year. If not for a knee injury that prematurely ended his senior year, Claxton was on pace to finish his career in the top 3 in both points and rebounds for Penn State. He ended his Penn State career fifth all time in scoring with over 1500 points and fourth all time in rebounds with over 750.
Chris Kramer, Purdue (class of ´06)The only active Big Ten player on this list, Kramer makes the cut not because of the numbers he puts up, but the all around game he brings to the Boilermakers. A key component in back to back NCAA berths for Purdue, he was a steadying influence as the team transitioned from a veteran squad in 2007 to a team dominated by freshman in 2008. Kramer was named to the All Big Ten defensive team as a freshman and was named the Big Ten defensive player of the year as a sophomore.
Mike Wilkinson, Wisconsin (class of ´00) I apologize Gopher fans for the run of Badgers you are going to see, but there was no way to avoid it. It starts with Wilkinson, a key post player who is only the second player in Badger history to finish with over 1500 points and 800 rebounds in a career. He is the sixth all time leading scorer and third all time leading rebounder for the Badgers and more importantly, he was an essential building block for Bo Ryan´s successful reign in Madison.
Devin Harris, Wisconsin (class of ´01) Taking into account college and professional accomplishments, Harris is the most successful player on this list. Blazing through the Big Ten at such a pace that he declared for the NBA draft after his junior year (picked #5 by the Dallas Mavericks), Harris went from unheralded recruit to Big Ten Player of the Year his junior year leading the Badgers to NCAA berths and two Big Ten titles in his three seasons.
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin (class of ´02) If Harris isn´t the most accomplished player on this list, it has to be Tucker. All time leading scorer at Wisconsin, Big Ten Player of the Year in 2007 and 1st team All American that same year are the highlights of a storied career in Madison. Tucker was drafted in the 1st round of the 2007 draft by the Phoenix Suns.
Michael Flowers, Wisconsin (class of ´04) It was a tough call between Flowers and another Badger guard, Kammron Taylor for this last spot, but I went with Flowers because he offered more on the defensive end of the court. Flowers was a contributor all four years at Madison, and when they were expected to slide last season with the loss of Tucker and Taylor, Flowers stepped up and lead the team to their best Big Ten record since 1941.
The Big Ten´s best year of recruiting?
Without question, it has to be 2002. Take a look at the players gathered in this year by the Big Ten programs:
| Michigan State: | Paul Davis, Maurice Ager, Chris Hill, Matt Trannon | |
| Iowa: | Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner | |
| Illinois: | Dee Brown, Deron Williams, James Augustine | |
| Michigan: | Daniel Horton, Lester Abram | |
| Indiana: | Bracey Wright, Marshall Strickland | |
| Purdue: | Matt Kiefer | |
| Wisconsin: | Alando Tucker |
Not only were these players all standouts at their respective colleges, but they also stuck around-only Williams and Wright declared early for the NBA draft. This class also housed a couple players who originally committed to other programs but made quite an impact at the Big Ten schools they ended up transferring to-Iowa´s Adam Haluska and Minnesota´s Vincent Grier.
The Big Ten´s worst year of recruiting?
Unquestionably, that would be 2005. Only three players from the Top 100 list ended up committing to Big Ten schools (Wisconsin´s Joe Krabbenhoft, Purdue´s Nate Minnoy, and Michigan´s Kendric Price) and only one remains at their original school.
For those class of 2005 players, this is their senior year. Here is the rundown of Big Ten seniors who committed to their respective schools in 2005 (meaning no jucos, no redshirts, no transfers): Chester Frazier, Travis Walton, Jevohn Shepard, Jonathan Williams, Jamal Abu Shamala, Craig Moore, Patrick Houlihan, Jamelle Cornley, Marcus Green, Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, and Kevin Gullikson. And no, this class was not affected by players declaring early for the NBA draft. (although it should be noted that Tony Freeman, formerly of Iowa, would have been a senior this season had he decided not to transfer at the end of his junior season to Southern Illinois). I would be surprised if we see a Big Ten recruiting class this lacking in talent again.
“¢ In 2002, Wisconsin and Illinois tied for the Big Ten title, along with Ohio State and Indiana.
““ Related article: Part 5 “” An Interview with Dave Telep
““ Related article: Part 4 “” One & Done’s ““ Friend or Foes to a College Program?
““ Related article: Part 2 “” How Do Our Recruits Compare?
““ Related article: Part 1 “” What Do These Recruiting Classes Mean for Minnesota?
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