Gopher Football
Minnesota Offensive Line vs. Wisconsin Defensive Line:
The biggest key for the Badger defense this season has been the play of the defensive line; something that really not a surprise when you look at how loaded they are. All four starters are very good, and all four are seniors. If you wanted to identify a weak link, that would probably be Jonathan Welsh, but you would only arrive at him via the process of elimination. The 6’4″ 233 pound defensive end had 7 sacks last year to lead the Badgers, but his production has fallen off slightly so far in 2004. Welsh is coming off a minor leg injury but is expected to play. At the other end is the guy everyone is talking about, senior Erasmus James. After starting in 2002, James missed the 2003 season with a hip injury, but has come back and taken the Big Ten (and nation) by storm this year. Besides his 7 sacks so far, James will be remembered as the guy who knocked two Penn State quarterbacks out of the game before the first quarter of that game even ended. Against Purdue three weeks ago James suffered a high ankle sprain; an injury that is often slow in healing. After missing a game and then sitting out the bye week, it was hoped that Erasmus would be healthy for this contest. But some bad news surfaced recently for the Badgers, and it’s not uncertain as to whether or not James will be able to play this weekend. Without James this line is very good, but with him they’re phenomenal, so obviously they’re hoping he’ll be ready. If the ends weren’t good enough, Wisconsin is equally as tough up the middle. For the third season in a row, seniors Anttaj Hawthorne and Jason Jefferson hold down the starting spots. Hawthorne is the star of this duo, and one of the top few defensive tackles in the nation. Minnesota will likely have problems running up the middle in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota sports an offensive line that is hoping to get things going again in these, the final two weeks of the season. All year long the Minnesota offensive line has been going up against 8 & 9 man fronts, and that’s often left a player or two more than the line (and tight ends) can block. Not surprisingly, the vaunted Gopher running game has in turn, seen some uncharacteristic struggles. I still have confidence in the ability of the offensive line, but only if the passing game and more creative play calling can loosen up the defenses a little bit. But any improvements this week will likely be hard to come by. The game is at Wisconsin, in front of 80,000 fans, in a revenge game, against arguably the best defensive line in the nation, against a team that is fighting for nation respect and a possible BSC title berth. Things will be made slightly easier if James does not play, but even that may not be enough to make a substantial difference. Besides the great run defense, this will also be the fiercest pass rush the Gophers have seen all season. The line will definitely have its hands full in this game, no matter the situation.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Minnesota Backfield vs. Wisconsin Linebackers:
The Wisconsin linebackers are lead by junior Dontez Sanders. The 6’1″ 208 pound junior is the closest thing the Badgers have to Terrance Campbell. The former defensive back leads the team in tackles with 53, has 3.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and an interception. Along side Sanders are two sophomores, Reggie Cribbs and Mark Zalewski. This isn’t the best group of linebackers in the Big Ten, but they don’t really have to be. All this group has really needs to do this year is clean up the scraps left by the defensive line.
From Minnesota’s perspective, this is a matchup that is a must win if the offense is to solve the stingy Badger defense. If Wisconsin does as the rest of Minnesota’s opponents have done, they will be bringing the linebackers tight into the line and cheat against the Gophers outside stretch plays. The best way to counter this defense is to beat the linebackers where they were supposed to be playing with short passes to the wide receivers, passes to the running backs, and passes to the tight ends. When the Gopher offense has clicked, these plays have been there. But when Bryan Cuptio has struggled, these plays are not there and the offense can go down the tubes in a big hurry. So without a lot of over analysis, Minnesota will stand the best chance to move the ball if Cupito is able make things happen through the air. If Cupito can succeed in that, we all know what Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney can do from there. With Maroney going over 1000 yards last week at Indiana, Marion Barber needs just 119 more yards in the last two games (plus bowl game) to make this the first duo in NCAA history to go over 1000 yards in two seasons. If Barber is able to get that total this week, it would be a very good thing for Minnesota. Glen Mason knows the importance of this game, so look for him to do everything necessary to put Barber & Maroney in positions where they can excel.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Receivers vs. Wisconsin Secondary:
Like the defensive line, Wisconsin’s secondary is loaded with experience. The big play guy in the Badger secondary is senior Jim Leonhard. The 5’8″ safety reminds me a little bit of former Gopher safety Tyrone Carter. Both came into college very unheralded (Leonhard as a walkon), both are very short for their position, yet both are great football players who do nothing but make plays. Hopefully for Leonhard, a 1st team All American honor will happen for him after this season as it did for Tyrone. The other starters for the Badgers are SS Robert Brooks (SR), and cornerbacks Brett Bell (JR) and Scott Starks (SR). The surprising number for this unit is that they have only 3 interceptions on the year. You would think that with the amount of pressure the Badger defensive line applies, the defensive backfield would be feasting on a plethora of errant throws, but so far that hasn’t been the case.
Scott Starks, meet Ernie Wheelwright. This is the matchup I want to see a lot this week. If Ernie gets matched up on Starks, we will see a 7 inch height advantage (plus arm length) in favor of the Gophers. Considering Wheelwright is already one of the best WR’s in the conference at going up and getting balls, this is a matchup Minnesota would look to exploit for sure. Wheelwright is 5th in receiving yards during Big Ten play at 60 yards per game. Disappearing as of late has been Jared Ellerson. With the emergence of Wheelwright, there’s no excuse why Ellerson shouldn’t be getting the ball more. Once again, the X factor for Minnesota could be Matt Spaeth. When the game plan has gone his way, Spaeth has delivered. If Wisconsin chooses to cheat against the run, the big tight end will need to come up big. Overall, I feel this is a matchup the Minnesota can exploit, but only the Gopher offensive line can do a reasonable job at fending off the Wisconsin pass rush.
Advantage: Even
Overall Summary:
To be honest, this really isn’t the matchup the Gophers needed after scoring just 7 points in the final 3 quarters last week vs. Indiana. Wisconsin is ranked #1 in the nation in scoring defense, #2 in the nation in total defense, they’ve only allowed 23 points in the first half of all games this season, and they have as many as 3 possible 1st team All American’s. The Badger defense is good all around, but it all starts with the defensive line.
So far this year just about every team has come after Minnesota’s running game with 8 guys in the box. Most of the time this strategy has worked. Minnesota has been unable to block all of these extra defenders, and the passing game hasn’t been good enough to take advantage of this situation. But will we see something different on Saturday? Wisconsin may be as well equipped as anyone to handle Minnesota’s running game without the safeties cheating up. If they could do that, it would make it really tough for Minnesota to pass the ball. But if Wisconsin chooses to play up tight as other teams have, it will be really difficult to run, and Cupito would need to step up and deliver Either way, they keys to Minnesota’s offense falls into two areas:
1. Bryan Cupito. If Wisconsin plays 8 men in the box, Cupito will have to break out of his slump and hit some passes. If he doesn’t, the Gopher offense will go nowhere.
2. The Offensive Line. If Cupito starts hitting passes, or Wisconsin chooses not to stack the box, the offensive line will NEED to play their best game of the year. Anything less will not be enough against arguably the nation’s best defensive line.
This will be the best defense Minnesota has gone up against since Ohio State in 2002. In that game we scored 3 points, and that came off of a blocked punt. Despite the struggles as of late, Minnesota has usually done a decent job being prepared to play in the big games. Look for Minnesota to look sharp and to have some modest success. But even if James doesn’t play, I think there is too much talent up front for Wisconsin for Minnesota to move the ball with any consistency.
Overall Advantage: Wisconsin
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