Gopher Football
Minnesota is looking for its fourth consecutive win versus Penn State, something that would’ve seemed improbable even just ten years ago. The Gophers answered the big 1999 win with a home win in 2000. After a two year hiatus in the series, the Gophers went back to Happy Valley last year and knocked off Penn State 20-14 in the Big Ten opener.
Minnesota’s offense looked to be in 2003 form against Northwestern last weekend. The Wildcats did everything they could to stop the Minnesota ground game, but that didn’t stop the Gophers from rushing for over 250 yards. Penn State comes to Minneapolis with the best defense the Gophers have seen this year, but will it be enough to stop the Gopher offensive juggernaut?
Minnesota’s Backfield vs. Penn State’s Linebackers
The Penn State linebackers are led by Paul Posluszny. The true sophomore burst onto the scene late last year and is leading the team in tackles this year with 33. The other two starters at linebacker for Penn State are fairly average. BranDon Snow is an exciting young prospect who was slated as a starter, but unfortunately for the Lions he is in still in a long process of healing from a foot injury. Filling in for Snow at the linebacker position is senior Derek Wake. Wake is back at linebacker to fill in for Snow after a very short stint at defensive end. The third starter for this unit is sophomore Tim Shaw. Shaw played as a freshman in 2002 at fullback, but red shirted last year while he was switched to linebacker.
Minnesota’s backfield has not disappointed so far this year. The Gophers are lead by the two headed running back combo of junior Marion Barber III and sophomore Laurence Maroney. Both have looked very good so far and done as expected this year, with each getting their fair share of carries. Maroney (132 yards/game) & Barber (128 yards/game) are ranked #’s 1 & 2 respectively in the Big Ten in rushing yardage, and by a wide margin (the next closest is 94 yards/game). Last week Northwestern was pretty effective in slowing down Barber, holding him under 100 yards, but Maroney was there to pick up the slack. Making his fifth career start at quarterback for Minnesota is sophomore Bryan Cupito. Of the six new starting quarterbacks in the Big Ten this year, Cupito has looked the best so far. His passing efficiency rating of 174.7 ranks 2nd in the Big Ten and 7th in the Nation. Cupito has not been asked to make a lot of things happen with his arm so far this year. Rather, his biggest success has been passing off of play action fakes after the running game has the attention of the opposing defenses. As long as the running game keeps humming along, we should see Cupito continue to succeed as well.
Summary:
Outside of Iowa and Michigan, Penn State may have the best group of linebackers Minnesota will face this year. Paul Posluszny could be the next great Nittany Lion linebacker and Derek Wake is a solid guy who has experience. But if Penn State has a prayer of slowing down the Gopher offense, these guys will have to play the game of their lives. Nobody has come close to stopping the Gopher offense this year, and we’ve seen nothing so far that indicates the Gophers will stop themselves. Posluszny will be the marked man for Minnesota’s blockers, so in order for him to be effective he’ll need to stay ahead of the play and make things happen. Even if he does, there is too much talent in the Minnesota backfield to make a difference.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota’s Offensive Line vs. Penn State’s Defensive Line
Penn State is fairly inexperienced and undersized on the defensive line. They don’t have a bonafied star, but the best player up front appears to be Tamba Hali The 6’3″ 273 pound junior is the only returning starter in this group. Across the rest of the line, Penn State goes 279,275 & 262. None of these four ranks in the top 10 in the Big Ten in sacks, and as a group they have combined for only 3.5 in four games. The run defense has been pretty effective, albeit against two cupcakes. They come into this game on a bit of a downer though, as Wisconsin’s Matt Bernstein tore through the Penn State rush defense last week. The big 270 pound fullback was forced to switch to tailback during the game last week after injuries to Wisconsin’s top 3 tailbacks, and ended up running for 132 yards on 29 carries.
Injuries have been a concern for the Minnesota offensive line so far this year. Both Rian Melander and Brandon Harston have been knocked out of games, but neither of their injuries is believed to have been too serious. If you read between the lines, Coach Mason said at his press conference on Tuesday that both players are expected to be play this week, and that is certainly good news for the Gophers. When they are healthy, this line has already proved to be very good and nearly back to 2003 form. The run blocking has been good (although at times overwhelmed by defenders stacking the line), and the pass blocking has been nothing short of superb in allowing just one sack so far this year.
Summary:
This should be an easy match up win for the Gophers. The Penn State defensive line averages only about 270 per man, while the Minnesota offensive line averages about 295. Sometimes you can overcome a size disadvantage with superior technique and quickness, but unfortunately for Penn State, the Gopher offensive line also excels in both. The Penn State defensive line should provide little in the way of problems for the experienced Gopher offensive line in this one.
Advantage: Minnesota
Minnesota Receivers vs. Penn State’s Defensive Backfield
The strength of the Penn State team thus far in 2004 has been the passing defense. The Lions rank 4th in the Big Ten in pass defense, and have held Wisconsin and Boston College under 200 yards in passing. The star of the secondary (as well as the defense) is junior cornerback Alan Zemaitis. He has excellent cornerback skills, and at 6’2″ is well equipped to match up with the taller receivers out there. He is a returning 2nd team All-Big Ten player. Starting at free safety for Penn State is 6’3″ senior Andrew Guman. As one of Penn State’s biggest hitters, he is almost more of a linebacker, but his good quickness and cover skills make him a good free safety.
The Gophers wideouts have been consistent and balanced. Leading the way is junior Jared Ellerson with 13 receptions. Next is Ernie Wheelwright with 8 followed by Jakari Wallace with 7. Throw in 11 receptions by tight end Matt Spaeth and you have four different legitimate options to throw to. With Paris Hamilton starting to see the field more, pretty soon there will be a fifth. The receivers haven’t been spectacular this year, but they haven’t needed to be. They have done a good job in taking what the defense gives them, and so far this season that has been exactly what the Gophers need.
Summary:
So far this year, the Gopher offense hasn’t dictated the receivers to go out and make things happen. Rather, the running game is what makes things happen and the receivers kind of take whatever is left. Expect that to continue this week. Penn State does have a good group of cornerbacks & safeties that should be able to limit the Gopher wideouts to modest numbers. Don’t expect any particular receiver to have 8 or 10 catches, rather, expect several to see 3-4 catches. What may turn the balance here though is Matt Spaeth. At 6’6″ 270 pounds, he is a huge match up problem for any defense. A quick linebacker probably could cover him, but so far this year when Spaeth has been successful the linebacker has gotten caught up on the line by a play fake. Penn State won’t be able to stop the Gopher running game with just the front four, so expect Spaeth to see his share of opportunities again this week.
Advantage: Even
Overall Summary
Penn State does have a good defensive football team. In fact, it should easily be the best defense the Gophers have encountered this year. If this were a passing Gopher team I would be a little more concerned, but since the Gophers love to run I see Minnesota having the advantage. Penn State is going to need to commit resources to stop the Gopher running game, and although the Lion’s secondary is strong, it won’t be quite strong enough to stop the Gopher wide receivers by themselves. Expect more of the same in this game, with the Gophers coming out establishing the run, and then catching the opposition on some play fakes as the game goes on. It could be another big offensive day for Minnesota.
Overall Advantage: Minnesota
Talk about the match-up on the Gopher Football Forum message board.