Gopher Football
Minnesota Linebackers vs. Wisconsin Backfield:
Wisconsin running back Anthony Davis will face Minnesota for the 3rd and final time today. Davis tore up the Gopher defense in 2001 and 2002, but missed last years tilt because of an injury that kept him out a good part of the season. Davis healed up over the offseason and came into 2004 healthy, but in the first game of the season he suffered an eye injury which kept him out a few weeks. While Davis was absent the Wisconsin running game struggled, and first year quarterback John Stocco wasn’t able to pick up the slack. In the 3 games Davis missed, Wisconsin averaged only 14 points a game. But in the 4 games since he’s come back they’ve averaged 23, so it’s easy to see the value he gives to this team.
As mentioned, sophomore (and Minnesota native) John Stocco runs the show for the Badger offense. For the most part Stocco has been rather unspectacular. He’s ranked 10th in the conference in passing yards (151/game), 8th in the conference in passing efficiency, and tied for 7th in TD passes with 7. Stocco is in a position very similar to Minnesota’s Bryan Cuptio. Both teams like to run the ball, both are first year starters, both are sophomores, and neither are really asked to carry the offense. The only major difference between the two is that Stocco is asked to throw shorter passes, while Cupito is more apt to air it out and throw deep. Because of Wisconsin’s good running game and quick rhythm passing attack, it’s imperative the Gopher linebackers put together a good performance.
Speaking of the Gopher linebackers, the single biggest key may be which group shows up. Will it be the inspired unit that played with a chip on their shoulder and crushed Illinois? Or will it be the lackadaisical group that looked lost and struggled against Michigan State and Indiana? When the Gopher linebackers have been ‘on’, we’ve seen some nice things. Kyle McKenzie put on as good of a performance as any Gopher linebacker in recent memory against Illinois, only to come back down to earth against Indiana. Terrance Campbell remains the Gophers most steady linebacker, but with a great fullback in Matt Bernstein lining up opposite him this week, you can bet Wisconsin will have #32 scoped out on the running plays. It will be key for the Gopher linebackers to play smart this week, and TACKLE WELL! Davis isn’t the size of Ron Dayne, but he can be nearly as difficult to bring down. Wisconsin likes to throw to their TE, so it will also be imperative for the Gopher LB’s not to forget about him on the play action fakes. Sometimes when your run defense is struggling, you become so focused on trying to stop it you forget about your other assignments. That is the last thing Minnesota can afford this weekend.
Advantage: Even
Minnesota D-Line vs. Wisconsin O-Line:
The Wisconsin Offensive line is talented and experienced. They have two seniors (Dan Buenning & Jonathan Clinkscale) who have started every game dating back to the middle of their freshman season. They have one of the best centers in the nation in junior Donovan Raiola, along with senior Morgan Davis who is in his second year as a starter. As a run blocking unit, Wisconsin always is very good. But where the Badger O-Line has really turned it around this year in their pass protection. After allowing an astounding 37 sacks in 2003, they’ve given up only 6 so far this season. The highlight of the offensive line’s season has to be the Wisconsin ““ Penn State game. After injuries to several tailbacks, Wisconsin turned to 270 pound fullback Matt Bernstein. Despite Penn State having one of the best defenses in the conference, Bernstein was able to run 27 times for 123 yards behind a great performance from the line.
Like the rest of the defense, the Gopher defensive line has seen it’s share of ups and downs. With the exception of Darrell Reid, the line continues to have major struggles in generating quarterback pressure. Minnesota likes to go to a 3 man front in passing situations, but with a running team like Wisconsin up this week, I doubt you will see to many of those. If Minnesota’s defense line can take it to Wisconsin’s offensive line, it could potentially disrupt the Badger running game, and thus the whole Wisconsin offense. But frankly, I just don’t see that happening. Along with the pass rushing struggles, Minnesota has gone backwards this year and is 8th in the conference in rushing defense. Look for Wisconsin to have success in pounding the ball and grinding out yards.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Minnesota Secondary vs. Wisconsin Receivers:
There are more similarities between the Gopher & Badger offenses: Wisconsin has a good group of receivers, but in part because of the young inexperienced quarterback they aren’t putting up the numbers they are capable of. The leading receiver for Wisconsin is Brandon Williams. The junior has grabbed 26 balls for 304 yards but no touchdowns. The other two main receiving threats at WR for Wisconsin are Jonathon Orr and Darrin Charles. However, each of them has been held to less than 15 catches so far this year. Wisconsin has a very good receiving Tight End in Owen Daniels. Also a junior, Daniels was the guy who burned the Minnesota secondary twice last year for long touchdown passes. On the year Daniels has 15 receptions for 273 yards and 2 TD’s.
I just mentioned the two touchdown catches by Owen Daniels last year. Task #1 for John Pawielski and Quentin White will be to avoid the blown coverage that allowed those touchdowns last year. In all likelihood Pawielski will be playing a major part in run support. But when Wisconsin goes into play actions, Pawielski, like the linebackers, must be aware of the situation and react accordingly. Daniels is pretty quick for a tight end and will beat you down the field if you aren’t careful. At the cornerback spots, it will be interesting to see if Trumaine Banks plays this week. Banks has missed the past two games with an injury and redshirt freshman Jamal Harris has started in his place. Also missing the past two games has been starting strong safety Justin Fraley. While he has been out, Pawielski has shifted from free safety to strong safety, and Quentin White has started at free safety. Neither of the two injuries are believed to be too serious, but with coach Mason you’ll never really know. One player who has not been injured has been Ukee Dozier. There’s a good chance the Dozier will be matched up on Brandon Williams most of the day, and if that’s the case I think Dozier will hold his own. Overall, Wisconsin does have some decent receivers, but they’re just not as dangerous with John Stocco throwing the ball. If Justin Fraley & Trumaine Banks play, I think Minnesota holds the advantage here. But if neither of them do, things could get a little scary.
Advantage: Even
Overall Summary:
For Minnesota, the game plan will be pretty simple: Stop the run. Anthony Davis is a great running back, and Wisconsin has a good offensive line. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the Badgers will try to run the ball, and run it a lot tomorrow. If Minnesota can stop the run, where will the Wisconsin offense go? Probably not very far. The Badger offense hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a Big Ten game yet, despite having a defense that forces punt after punt after punt. Stop the run and you’ll stop their offense. And yes, despite the Gopher recent struggles on defense I believe it is that simple. Minnesota traditionally does better against smash mouth running teams than it does against tricky and finesse teams, so I think there is a good chance of us having some success.
But, if we don’t stop the run things become a whole lot different. We’ll have to start packing the linebackers and safeties in tight, and just like that Stocco’s job is suddenly made much easier. Considering the Gophers have a habit of turning opposition QB’s into Heisman candidates, this is a position I would rather the Gopher defense just avoid. It will take a big game by Anthony Montgomery and the rest of the Gopher front four to disrupt Wisconsin’s offensive line. Do that, and you win. Don’t do it, and you lose.
Overall Advantage: Wisconsin
Special Teams Notes:
Wisconsin’s Special Teams is led by Jim Leonhard, the leading punt returner in Big Ten history. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in the conference in punt returns, but surprisingly does not have a touchdown yet this season. Besides Jim Leonhard, neither team boasts very good return or coverage games. Badger kicker Mike Allen has struggled a little, going 18-20 on XP’s, but just 9-14 on FG’s. Minnesota’s Rhys Lloyd has gone 36-40 on XP’s and 8-12 on FG’s. Minnesota and Wisconsin are about even in punting.
Advantage: Even
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