Gopher Football
Northwestern picked up its first win of the year last week in a hard-fought home victory over Kansas. That was a much-needed win that put them at 1-2 after a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to TCU in Fort Worth and a second loss to the surprisingly potent Arizona State Sun Devils in Evanston. Minnesota has rolled to a 3-0 start by beating Toledo and Illinois State at home and Colorado State on the road.
After playing against three potent offenses, Northwestern’s defensive numbers are not terribly impressive. The Wildcats rank 93rd in the nation and 9th in the Big Ten in total defense, giving up 435 total yards per game — 114 yards rushing (46th nationally, 7th in conference) and 321 yards passing (110th nationally, 10th in conference). Northwestern ranks 93rd in the nation and last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.
They won’t get any rest this week in facing the best offense they’ve played to date. The Gophers rank 3rd in the nation and 2nd in the Big Ten in total offense, gaining an average of 572 yards per game — 359 yards rushing (2nd nationally, 1st in conference) and 213 yards passing (55th nationally, 5th in conference). Minnesota ranks 5th in the nation and 2nd in the conference in scoring offense, posting 44.7 points per game.
Minnesota O-Line vs. Northwestern D-Line
Minnesota’s heralded offensive line — senior left tackle Rian Melander (6’7″, 295 lbs.), junior left guard Mark Setterstrom (6’3″, 295 lbs.), junior center Greg Eslinger (6’3″, 285 lbs.), senior right guard Brandon Harston (6’2″, 300 lbs.), and sophomore right tackle Joe Ainslie (6’7″, 300 lbs.) — has lived up to its billing. Rimington Award and Lombardi Award candidate Eslinger has been garnering praise from media and coaches alike. While the o-line has not been as completely dominant as some fans were expecting (if that can fairly be said of a line leading the nation’s second-ranked rushing attack), the Gophers’ zone-blocking execution has been very effective.
Northwestern’s defensive line had a chance to be the Big Ten’s best this season before injuries struck. Junior Loren Howard (6’4″, 280 lbs.), arguably the conference’s best defensive end, was lost just prior to the first game of the season with an ankle injury requiring surgery. He may return yet this year, but not for several more weeks, at least. Then, his back-up, junior David Thompson (6’3″, 265 lbs.), suffered a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for more than one game, although Thompson is expected to play if not start this week. If Thompson doesn’t start at DE, the nod will go to sophomore Ryan Keenan (6’4″, 280 lbs.). Senior defensive tackle Luis Castillo (6’3″, 305 lbs.) is the d-line’s leading tackler, with 15 total tackles including one for loss, despite playing double-teamed and with a sprained elbow since the second game of the season. Junior DE Barry Cofield (6’4″, 295 lbs.) and senior DT Colby Clark (6’2″, 290 lbs.) are not far behind, with 13 tackles and 12 tackles, respectively. Cofield leads the team and is fourth in the Big Ten with 2.5 sacks. Clark is a four-year starter with 38 career starts to his credit. The ‘Cats have done relatively well against the run, but have had big problems defending passes, in part due to a lack of a pass rush.
If Northwestern were healthy, this likely would be the best battle in the trenches all year in the Big Ten. As it is, it still should be interesting. Castillo and Clark are a force in the middle, and Eslinger, Setterstrom, and Harston will have their hands full. This match-up will be the toughest test so far for the vaunted Minnesota o-line. The Wildcats’ thinness, though, means that NU probably will employ a 3-man front with regularity, and head coach Randy Walker has indicated that 2-man fronts may even come into play from time to time. Minnesota’s o-line is the best Northwestern will face this season, and the injuries will be too much to overcome.
Advantage: Gophers
Minnesota Backfield vs. Northwestern Linebackers
The Minnesota running backs have performed at or above expectations so far this year, and the expectations were unbelievably high. Junior Marion Barber III (143 rushing yards per game) and sophomore Laurence Maroney (127 rushing yards per game) have been nothing short of phenomenal, ranking first and second, respectively, in the Big Ten in rushing (they are 9th and 12th in the nation). Barber has had two rushing touchdowns in each of the first three games, and Maroney is averaging a touchdown per game himself. Third-string running back and redshirt freshman Amir Pinnix has been impressive, rushing for over 100 yards and one touchdown so far this year. True freshman Gary Russell is talented as well and is likely to see some playing time throughout the year. Redshirt freshman fullback Justin Valentine has big shoes to fill after the departure of Thomas Tapeh to the NFL following last season, but Valentine has been solid so far with blocking help and in notching two short-yardage touchdowns. While sophomore quarterback Bryan Cupito is not the scrambler that his predecessor Asad Abdul-Khaliq was, he has shown more mobility than many expected and has positive rushing yardage so far this season.
Northwestern has a fairly strong group of linebackers. Junior OLB (Will) Tim McGarigle is an all-conference candidate who led the Wildcats in tackles last season and is leading the team again this year with 28 tackles (5th in the Big Ten). Sophomore Nick Roach is listed as the starter at the other OLB (Sam) slot. Last week against Kansas, Roach had nine tackles–including three tackles for loss (1 sack)–and a pass break-up. Sophomore MLB Adam Kadela sprained his left knee last week, and so fellow sophomore Demetrius Eaton is slated to get his first career start on Saturday. Amid all of the injuries for the ‘Cats there is some good news: Senior linebacker John Pickens, who is probably NU’s second-best linebacker after McGarigle but has been out the entire season recovering from a shoulder injury, should return to play this week. Pickens is an excellent tackler, and the ‘Cats have had some tackling problems this year.
With the d-line as thin as it is, more pressure will be put on NU’s linebackers. In addition to the typical 4-3-4 defensive scheme, expect to see some 3-4-4, 3-3-5, and even 2-4-5 arrangements. The ‘Cats have some talented players and a nice mix of experience and youth, but even a good linebacking corps is going to have trouble facing Barber, Maroney, et al.
Advantage: Gophers
Minnesota Receivers vs. Northwestern Secondary
Those who might think that Minnesota doesn’t have a passing game to go with its rushing attack had better think again. With new starter Cupito in the pocket, the Gophers bring to the table a quarterback who can get the ball to open receivers better than the Gophers have been able perhaps since the days of Cory Sauter in the mid-1990s. Cupito is second in the conference and fourth in the nation in pass efficiency, and has five passing touchdowns with no interceptions so far. Minnesota’s receivers are maybe the best-kept secret in the Big Ten. Everyone knows about Michigan’s Braylon Edwards and Purdue’s Taylor Stubblefield, but fewer talk about the Gophers’ junior WR Jared Ellerson or freshman WR Ernie Wheelwright. Ellerson is eighth in the Big Ten in receiving yards per game (73 ypg), and Wheelwright’s first three collegiate catches went for touchdowns, including an 80-yarder against Illinois State and an acrobatic catch in his first game that rated as ESPN’s No. 1 play on SportsCenter’s Top Ten Plays for September 4th. Junior WR Jakari Wallace has been a dependable third option, and is the fastest player on the team. Senior WR and former JUCO standout Paris Hamilton has not seen as much playing time as many fans expected but does have a 20-yard reception to his credit. The Gophers have opened in a double-tight-end set the first three games this year, and Glen Mason has demonstrated that he’s not afraid to throw to his TEs: Junior Jarod Posthumus, originally recruited as a quarterback, picked up a 52-yard reception in the first game, and sophomore Matt Spaeth made waves last weekend with a six-reception, 71-yard, two-touchdown performance. Spaeth has been tabbed by many as one of the best tight ends in the country, and he hasn’t done anything to dispel those accolades.
The Wildcat secondary is a veteran group dominated by upperclassmen. That experience apparently has not benefited NU’s pass defense much, as the pass D sits near the bottom of the conference and national rankings. One contributory factor is–as with every other defensive position for the Wildcats–misfortune with regard to injuries, as NU lost one of its fastest players and a projected starting corner (junior Marquice Cole) to a broken ankle in the team’s August scrimmage. The play of senior strong safety Dominique Price and sophomore free safety Bryan Heinz has been generally solid. Price has the Wildcats’ lone interception this year, while Heinz led the ‘Cats with five interceptions last season and currently is second on the team in tackles. Junior CB Jeff Backes is a bit like the Gophers’ Dominique Sims, in that he was one of the most highly-decorated players in his recruiting class (Backes was Ohio’s Mr. Football in 2000 and the Division I Player of the Year after rushing for a state-record 3,354 yards and 44 touchdowns and leading his team to the Ohio state high school championship his senior year) but struggled to find his place on the team in college, moving from running back to wide receiver and, eventually, to cornerback. He is a decent tackler and has improved in his second season as a starting corner (evidenced by three pass break-ups last week) but still seems to get burned a little too often. Fifth-year senior Marvin Ward is a good tackler who had four interceptions last year, but none so far this season. NU’s starting secondary constitutes four of the Wildcat’s top six tacklers. That’s rarely a good sign because it means that a lot of tackles are being made downfield rather than at or near the line of scrimmage.
Through the first quarter of last year’s game between these two squads and into the second quarter, Northwestern shut down Minnesota’s running game like no other team. That is, it was shut down until Jared Ellerson broke out with a school-record 96-yard TD reception in the second quarter, and then the floodgates opened. Ellerson later added an 82-yard TD pass to open the second half. Those were two rare “home runs” for the Gophers last year, who typically chipped away in significant but smaller chunks of yardage the rest of the year. This year, the home runs have been coming more frequently for Minnesota, and that could be a problem for the Wildcat secondary, which has given up more than its share of big plays in three prior games. TCU’s Tye Gunn and Arizona State’s Andrew Walter probably are quite a bit better than most of the quarterbacks the ‘Cats will face in the Big Ten this year, but Bryan Cupito (and Purdue’s Kyle Orton) could cause Northwestern significant trouble.
Advantage: Gophers
Summary
What looked to be a tough and further improved Northwestern defense this spring has been beset with injuries and shown some early weakness. On the other side, Minnesota’s offense has shown almost no weakness and has been even more successful than anticipated by most. The Barber/Maroney combination is extremely hard to stop, and Cupito has eased a lot of fears by his nonconference play. The ‘Cats will play tougher defense than many Gopher fans probably expect, and if Minnesota goes in chalking this up as a win, NU will leave Minneapolis as inflated with excitement as the Dome after their big upset road win. It’s unlikely that the Gophers won’t be primed for the Big Ten opener at home, though, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a lot of points on the board for the U. The Gophers have an awful lot of arrows in their quiver, and it doesn’t appear that the Wildcats have enough shields.
Overall Advantage: Gophers
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