March Madness has that way of making a quiet Thursday afternoon feel like a final. The 2025 bracket should be no different. Early round wagers are where the market is still figuring itself out, and that uncertainty can be useful. A few lower seeds will probably punch above their weight. They always do. The trick, if there is one, is weighing late-season form, matchups, and any whispers about injuries instead of locking onto seed numbers. It sounds basic. It isn’t. This year’s board looks friendly to underdog hunters, though patience and price discipline still matter more than any single trend.
Upset radar and familiar March troublemakers
Liberty, VCU, and Utah State keep popping up in early conversations. Liberty checks the boxes for a live dog, with a scheme that travels and enough shot-making to stretch a favorite thing. VCU is sitting in that old 6 vs 11 sweet spot that refuses to die. Since 2010, 11 seeds have taken roughly 35 percent of those games, which is not nothing and probably not noise either.
Utah State against UCLA is the kind of draw that makes you pause. The Mountain West has earned some respect, and UCLA’s offense has been volatile enough to give the Aggies a path both outright and against the number. These picks all represent the core value proposition in early sports betting for March, when public focus normally hones in on blue bloods but value is usually found elsewhere.
Finding mispriced favorites and chaos spots
Not every top seed deserves a premium price. Arizona looks like one that might. The Wildcats get Akron, a high-win mid-major with a sparkling record but less high-major depth. If the spread opens below 11, backing Arizona grades out as reasonable for bracket pools and a potential cover candidate, though that edge can vanish fast if the market steams.
North Carolina’s first game against Ole Miss is a different animal. The Tar Heels arrive as an 11 seed and carry the feel of a mis-seeded team, which is often where the spread value hides. Momentum helps, but so does the perception gap. If public money pushes this number around, watch for a buy-low moment on UNC before the closer kicks in.
Moneyline rollovers and what conference muscle means
Some bettors lean to moneyline rollover routes, particularly with play-in squads. Texas shapes up as the headline option. If the Longhorns survive the First Four, a projected plus 140 price where a fair number sits closer to plus 120 gives a modest edge for game-to-game reinvestment. It gets more interesting if a potential opponent like Tennessee looks wobbly and cracks the door for a second upset.
Saint Mary’s draws Vanderbilt and profiles as one of the steadier Round 1 favorites. The upset probability appears low compared with peers in that range. Purdue against Clemson is murkier, but the nudge goes to Purdue based on continuity and the residue of last year’s run. The broader read here is that returning starters and veteran coaching temper first-round chaos, while play-in winners have lately turned that first taste of pressure into momentum. Last season hinted at it, and this bracket could echo that pattern.
Living with the swings and watching the numbers
Late injuries and form swings can flip a ticket. Iowa State is laying fourteen and a half to Lipscomb, a number that will make some backers twitch given the uncertainty around Keshon Gilbert. The defense should still travel, and Tamin Lipsey’s return steadies things, but big early lines are fragile when rotations are in flux. If the Cyclones drift upward, underdog bettors may wait for the last click before jumping.
Keep an eye on the classic 5 vs 12 and 6 vs 11 landmines, where underdogs historically win around 40 percent of the time. Auburn has the names and the ceiling, yet recent stumbles raise fair questions about covering big spreads. Teams riding real winning streaks into March have quietly been outperforming the spread since 2018, and that tends to carry until someone finally knocks them off. The storylines change by the hour in this round, and one late note from a shootaround often turns a lean into a bet.
March brings a rush, for players and bettors alike. Set limits ahead of time, know what you can afford to lose, and take a breath if the fun starts to feel like strain. Help is available if you need it, and there will always be another game.