Before every game, I ask a reporter who covers the Gophers upcoming opponent to give us a view from the opponent’s perspective.
I asked Jonah Parker from Black Heart Gold Pants’ of SBNation six questions about the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa travels to Minneapolis looking to reclaim the Floyd of Rosedale on September 21st; this will be the 118th meeting between the two rivals. NBC picked this game to be in their primetime spot.
Huge thanks to Jonah for giving us his thoughts. We are happy to once again partner with Black Heart Gold Pants!
1. Kirk Ferentz is now in his 26th year at Iowa. Last year, Iowa finished 10-4 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play. Their season ended in a 35-0 defeat against Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. The Hawkeyes have 11 straight winning seasons, three 10-win campaigns in the last four full seasons. What were the expectations of the Hawkeyes entering this year? In your opinion, how do you grade the team three games in?
Expectations were likely all over the place. Hawkeye fans are, by nature, a pessimistic bunch and I think a good portion of the fanbase was looking for a classic ho-hum 8-4 season. Vegas certainly was. But when we ran our preseason polling of the BHGP community, the consensus came out closer to 10-2. A loss at Ohio State was a foregone conclusion and then it was a tossup where the other loss came from.
But those expectations came crashing down in week two with a home loss to Iowa State in a matchup the fanbase had marked in the win column since the schedule was released. More important than simply losing at home to the Cyclones was how it happened with the defense giving up big plays and the offense reverting to last year’s ways in crunch time. That was followed up a week ago by even more reason for concern on the defensive side of the ball and I think it’s safe to say that the fanbase is universally concerned about the remainder of this season.
If we’re talking letter grades, I’d give them a C+.
2. The Hawkeyes averaged 15.4 points last year; the defense accounted for some of that as well. The offense only went above 300 total yards twice, Cade McNamara being injured more of the season didn’t help things. For the first time since 2017, Iowa enters this season with a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester. I know it’s still early in the season, but how has the offense changed under Lester so far? What changes do you expect under his leadership?
Through three games, Tim Lester gets an incomplete. We’ve seen enough to have hope, but the competition hasn’t been stellar and there have been long periods of games that look an awful lot like last year. The Hawkeyes came out in week one and if you didn’t know any better, you’d have sworn Brian Ferentz was still calling plays. It was brutal and then it was repeated in the second half of the loss to Iowa State. Predictable with the shots (see the interception that turned the tide against ISU), more predictable with the personnel groupings and formations tipping what was coming and basically no shots down the field whatsoever.
But sandwiched between those two halves was a full game worth of remarkable improvement that was largely repeated a week ago against Troy. We saw a much better mix of run and pass, a significant uptick running out of shotgun and much higher completion passing.
That was the promise of Lester and his Shanahan offense. Loads of pre-snap motion, outside zone running and play-action passing with high completion percentage thanks to a more robust passing tree than we’ve seen in seven years. I think as the season progresses we’ll see more and more of that mixed in, but the early results have been pretty heavily skewed by the massive success Lester and this offense have found running the ball. That’s in part a testament to the formation mixing that’s been better in six of the eight quarters played thus far and in part a testament to an improved offensive line from a year ago.
3. Running back Kaleb Johnson leads the nation with 479 yards on the ground. The Hawkeyes rushing attack is 18th in the country with 243 yards per game. The passing game ranks 108th in the country with 176 yards per game. No doubt the ground game is the strength of the offense; I expect Minnesota to load the box and stop the run. If that is the case, what other weapons does QB Cade McNamara have around him that Minnesota fans should know about? How confident are you in the passing game of Iowa IF the Gophers can limit the run game?
The running game and Kaleb Johnson specifically have really been the story of this season for the Iowa offense to-date. Johnson leads the nation in rushing and has found paydirt twice in each of the first three games despite being suspended the first half of game one. He’s got more 25+ yard runs through the first three weeks than the team had in all of 2023. And it’s not like the first three opponents didn’t come into Kinnick with the game plan of loading things up and making Iowa win through the air.
But the Hawkeyes did come out in the second half against Illinois State and show they can throw the ball. Cade McNamara found two different receivers for three passing TDs (6’4” freshman Reese VanderZee for two and Northwestern transfer Jacob Gill for the other), matching the season total for WR touchdowns a season ago in just a half of football. He came out a week ago and completed 19 of 23 passes while the Hawkeyes ran for 284 yards and 3 TDs and on the year is completing 64% of his passes.
Which is to say I think Cade is a competent QB who can lead this offense to success even if Minnesota loads the box. However, he is NOT a big arm guy and if Lester tries to take shots downfield, all that confidence goes out the window. McNamara has a pair of interceptions on the year, both against Iowa State, and if Iowa is forced to press downfield things could get sketchy. They’re much more adept at stretching the field horizontally and using that to spread a defense out to create space for Johnson, Kamari Moulton or Jaz Patterson (last year’s starter, Leshon Williams, is out with an ankle injury that’s plagued him since camp started) to run even with safeties down in the box.
Beyond the backs and the two receivers already mentioned, Luke Lachey was a potential Mackey finalist before he was injured last year and will be playing on Sundays soon enough. Ohio State WR transfer Kaleb Brown was Iowa’s best downfield threat a season ago but has been used sparingly this season with Kaden Wetjen carving out a role. And a sneaky name to watch is former Northwestern QB Brendan Sullivan. OC Tim Lester likes mobile QBs and had mentioned before landing in Iowa City that he strongly preferred a mobile guy in the redzone (something Ferentz has been incredibly apprehensive about for years). We saw Sullivan get in the game under live fire last week in the redzone and throw a TD pass to TE Addison Ostrenga. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that become a regular package for this offense.
4. It seems like I should just copy and paste this question every year, because that is how good Phil Parker is at running defenses. Iowa’s defense was so good last year that it almost didn’t matter how bad the offense was. The scary thing is that they return the majority of their starters from last year. Three games in, are there any concerns you have with this defensive group? What players should Minnesota fans be on the lookout for this Saturday?
It still feels like I should look over my shoulder as I type this, but yes, Phil Parker’s secondary is perhaps the biggest concern on the team at this point in the season. While the offense has done the unthinkable and jumped into the top-60 in both total offense and scoring offense, the defense has given up three plays of 60+ yards, topping their total from all of last season. One was ultimately the difference in the game against Iowa State and the two against Troy kept things competitive against an inferior opponent.
Parker lost Cooper DeJean out of the secondary and replaced him with former 4-star CB TJ Hall. Hall has all the measurables and on paper should have slid right in. But he’s been targeted on all three of the big plays this year. While his teammates have jumped in to say they missed assignments on help over the top or on re-routing receiver’s underneath, the simple truth is Hall has been burned multiple times by double moves and it would be irresponsible of PJ Fleck and the Gophers to not go at him early and often on Saturday.
Having said that, Parker truly is one of the best in the business and Hawkeye fans have more faith in him fixing the secondary (which returns every starter except DeJean) than in the offense staying competent. That’s especially true with the return of All-American LB Jay Higgins and his All-Big Ten partner Nick Jackson. When combined with Sebastian Castro, I don’t think there’s a better trio in the middle of any defense in the nation.
The real question is whether Parker can generate a pass rush with those three and the front four. Iowa doesn’t have anyone off the edge who is particularly scary, but Max Llewellyn and Brian Allen Jr are solid ends who play all three downs and Yayha Black and Aaron Graves are legitimately great in the middle. If they can hold against the Gopher rushing attack and dial up pressure to avoid those deep shots, this will be another Phil Parker special.
5. It would be irresponsible of me if I didn’t bring up what happened last year in Iowa City. P.J. Fleck was asked this week if the invalid signal play added anything to this year’s game; he said, “No, not at all.” Well I completely disagree. Both sides have made tee-shirts about the play. What was the atmosphere like last year after the Minnesota game? What is it like now entering the game this Saturday? Do you think it has added anything to an already storied rivalry?
I’m a season ticket holder and was there with my 9-year old son a season ago. Watching the DeJean return was a shared moment neither of us will forget. His reaction after is one I won’t forget either.
Entering this week, I think it’s easy for Fleck and the Gophers to not have an emotional tie in from last year but not realistic to say the same about this group of Hawkeyes. I don’t think it’s just last year’s game either. It’s not a well kept secret that Kirk Ferentz does not like PJ Fleck. Lest we forget the “take the pig, leave the timeouts” incident of a few years ago. Kirk wants to win this game in a way I don’t think he does most others and the players have been pretty open that they feel like they blew a win they should have had a year ago. I would not expect the Hawkeyes to come out flat.
6. Saturday will be the 118th meeting between Iowa and Minnesota as they battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. One of the trophies in college football. Minnesota leads the series 63-52-2 but has lost 10 of the last 12 games. This game was picked by NBC to be played in their primetime slot, meaning it is going to be a night game in Minneapolis. The last time Minnesota won two straight over Iowa was 2010 and 2011. The Hawkeyes come to Minneapolis as 2.5-point favorites. What does Iowa need to do to reclaim Floyd of Rosedale? What is your prediction for the game this Saturday?
Evergreen response: run the ball and avoid giving up big plays. That’s generally an answer for every game Iowa has played for 25 years, but feels especially true given how successful Kaleb Johnson has been rushing the ball and how problematic the Iowa secondary has become through three games. If Johnson rushes for 150 yards and a pair of TDs while the defense keeps everything in front of them, it’s hard to envision the Hawkeyes falling.
As far as predictions, though, I suspect Fleck and the Gophers will do as you described and sell out to stop the run. I would guess we see multiple shots down the field, particularly targeting Hall on double moves and I suspect they land one and Parker dials up a turnover on one. If Cade McNamara can avoid turning the ball over, I think Iowa emerges on top, but I’ll stick my neck out and say he ultimately underthrows a deep shot that ends up costing Iowa.
Minnesota 20, Iowa 17