by: Daniel House (@DanielHouseNFL)
Photo: Fox Sports
When Ohio State basketball fans wake up at night, they will be thinking about Marcus Carr. The Gophers’ guard haunted the Buckeyes all season. Earlier in the year, Carr scored a career-high 35 points in an 84-71 win at Williams Arena.
On Thursday night, the redshirt sophomore dominated in crunch time. Carr had a team-high 21 points and seven rebounds in a 62-59 road victory. His efficient performance helped Minnesota win its first game in Columbus since 2005.
While playing 36 minutes, Carr posted game-highs in efficiency (21) and game score (15.4). For a detailed explanation of these stats, see the glossary below. When factoring in the value of three-point shooting, Carr had a 65 percent effective field-goal percentage. His 59.4 percent floor percentage was the top mark among Minnesota players. Carr even drew 3.9 fouls by aggressively driving to the rim. Several of Carr’s tough finishes became key winning plays. He also drilled a trio of three-pointers, including a game-winning trey with just three seconds remaining.
In addition, Carr finished the night with a 15% assist rate. He distributed the ball and created quality opportunties for his teammates. While doing that, Carr took excellent care of the basketball. He had an impressive six percent turnover rate and maximized Minnesota’s possessions. As a team, the Gophers committed just four turnovers, which turned out to be a key x-factor.
Carr’s excellence also extended to the defensive end of the court. He led the team with eight defensive stops and a 25.1 percent defensive rebounding rate. His key rebound in the final seconds helped spark his own game-winning shot.
Despite center Daniel Oturu scoring just 11 points, Carr’s dominant performance led Minnesota to its first Big Ten road win of the year.
The Rise of Payton Willis?
Guard Payton Willis was an unsung hero during the Gophers’ 62-59 win. He finished second among Minnesota players in efficiency rating (8), defensive stops (6) and defensive rebounding rate (24.2%). Late in the second half, Willis also looked comfortable handling the ball while Marcus Carr went to the bench with four fouls. He took control of the offense, distributed the basketball and kept everything flowing. Without Willis’ timely contributions, the game may have ended differently. The redshirt junior missed three games in December with a lower right leg injury. After slowly easing back, Willis is starting to become a key contributor again. For the first time since early November, he has played more than 30 minutes per game in three consecutive matchups. This could be a sign that Willis is finally nearing full strength.
The Gophers must find ways to continue increasing backcourt production. In the month of January, guard Gabe Kalscheur has been in a scoring drought. Over the past seven games, Kalscheur is shooting just 24 percent (11-for-45) from downtown. During the same time frame he is 22-for-68 (32%) from the floor. In recent games, Kalscheur has been more aggressive off the dribble and it’s helped him get into a groove. If Willis or Kalscheur can find a rhythm, it would add another element to the Gophers’ offense. Even though he hasn’t been consistently hitting shots, Kalscheur’s defense has made a big difference. He is fifth among Big Ten players in steals (24) and superbly denies the wing.
What do the numbers tell us about this team?
This win moved Minnesota from No. 43 to 39 in the latest NET rankings. Most bracket projections have added the Gophers to this year’s NCAA Tournament field.
When looking at Ken Pom rankings, a few things stand out. First, the Gophers have played excellent competition this year. Minnesota ranks No. 2 nationally in the adjusted opponent efficiency metric (+11.01). After breaking it down further, opponents are No. 4 in offensive efficiency (107.4) and No. 3 in defensive efficiency (96.1). Early in the season, Minnesota was battle-tested with a strong schedule. It has helped them adjust to the physical demands of Big Ten conference play.
Six conference teams currently are in the top 50 (nationally) of rebounding margin. Despite losing one of the top rebounders in program history, Minnesota has held up better than anticipated. The Gophers are currently No. 77 nationally in rebounding margin (4.0), which ranks eighth in the Big Ten. If Minnesota can win this category consistently, it will help them compete against top-tier competition. This statistic is easily one of the biggest keys during tight Big Ten games. For example, after playing inconsistent team defense and struggling to rebound, Minnesota tightened up in the second half of Thursday’s win.
The Gophers also currently sit at No. 32 (sixth in Big Ten) in assist to turnover ratio (1.26). Much of this is due to the skills of Marcus Carr, who has become one of the top passing guards in the country. When Minnesota is at its best, the ball moves crisply and Oturu is getting quality touches. Not only that, but limiting turnovers was a key reason why the Gophers defeated Ohio State.
Overall, Minnesota currently ranks No. 34 in Ken Pom’s Efficiency Ratings (+17.05). When looking at this closer, the Gophers are No. 17 in adjusted offense (112.7) and No. 74 in adjusted defense (95.7). The numbers clearly tell us this team is benefiting from playing some of the best competition in college basketball.
Glossary:
For more, check out this website, but here is a summary:
Efficiency is calculated by using Manley’s formula: (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK – Missed Shots – TO).
Game score calculates a player’s single-game productivity. This is the equation: (PTS + 0.4 * FG – 0.7 * FGA – 0.4*(FTA – FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK – 0.4 * PF – TOV.)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This
Floor percentage: (% of player’s possessions where at least one point is scored)