Gopher Basketball
No. 2 seed Baylor will be a slight favorite against the No. 3 seed Gophers. The Bears (27-3) won the Big 12 regular season title and they won their conference tournament. Baylor could have easily received a No. 1 seed; instead they were the 1st No. 2 seed.
The Gophers and the Bears have a lot of similarities in their styles of play. Saturday’s match will feature 2 of the best inside tandems in women’s college basketball. Baylor is led by 6’1″ post Sophia Young, an Associated Press 2nd team All-American, and 6’2″ power forward Steffanie Blackmon, an AP 3rd team All-American. The Gophers will counter with 6’2″ AP 2nd team All-American post Janel McCarville and her very able sidekick, 6’3″ power forward Jamie Broback. Broback has led the Gophers in scoring for 7 straight games.
It will be an interesting matchup between these duos. Young and Blackmon might be slightly more athletic, but the Gophers McCarville and Broback are stronger. Both teams like to feature these players in high/low offensive sets. Both teams prefer to pound the ball inside. This means that foul trouble for any of these players could determine the outcome of the game.
Both teams pride themselves on their tenacious defenses. Neither teams fast breaks much. Baylor’s small forward Emily Neiman is a sharpshooter beyond the arc. The Gophers Shannon Schonrock is 1 trey away from breaking the U of M school record for 3’s.
Both teams usually outrebound their opponents. Both teams play man-to-man defense almost exclusively.
Baylor’s point guard Chelsea Whitaker is an intense defender who will harass the Gopher guards all over the floor, at least until she runs into 1 of McCarville’s trademark backcourt screens.
Baylor’s version of the Gophers’ Shannon Bolden is Abiola Wabara, who comes off the bench to guard the opponents’ best perimeter player. She has long arms and quick feet, but isn’t much of an offensive factor.
Finally, both teams are tournament-tested, with the Gophers coming off a Final Four appearance in last year’s NCAA tourney, and Baylor advancing to the Sweet Sixteen in the same tourney before falling victim to Tennessee in a game marred by a game-ending questionable call by an official.
Outlook for the Gophers. Baylor is probably the better team, but not by much. The Gophers can beat them. Baylor probably hasn’t played a team as physical as the Gophers. Although the Big 12 Conference is a very good basketball conference, it’s not nearly as physical as the Big 10. Pam Borton‘s Gopher teams have developed a physical style of play that has become their trademark. This all started with Lindsey Whalen and McCarville, but it’s now been embraced by the entire Gopher team, especially by Broback and April Calhoun, who brings a linebacker’s mentality to her guard position.
As we’ve said all season in games against good teams, the Gopher perimeter players will have to hold their own against more athletic opponents. However, the Gopher perimeter players have held their own in recent games against good teams Ohio State, Michigan State, and Virginia.
If the Gopher guards can hold their own, and if Broback and McCarville can stay out of foul trouble and win the battle against Baylor’s Young and Blackmon, the Gophers will have a good chance to advance to the Elite Eight game against the winner of the North Carolina-Arizona State game.
Notes and Observations:
- Although Arizona State is playing in front of its home crowd, I look for North Carolina to win this game. Over 1000 Gopher fans have already purchased tickets for the Tempe regional; if the Gophers win the 8 p.m. game against Baylor, these Gopher fans will probably hang around to join the ASU fans in cheering for underdog ASU in the 2nd game. North Carolina might feel like they’re in enemy territory, as they’ve sold only 100 tickets to the games in Tempe. North Carolina’s point guard Ivory Latta is a 3rd team All-American and she’s very good. That being said, she is a freshman and she’ll be going against ASU’s senior point guard Kylan Loney, who led her team with 20 points in their upset win over Notre Dame.
- Besides the Gopher-Baylor game, there are 2 other sweet Sweet Sixteen matchups: Stanford, a No. 2 seed, will play defending champ UConn, a No. 3 seed. (I’m reluctantly picking UConn to win.) Ohio State, a No. 2 seed, will face off with Rutgers, a No. 3 seed. (I’m reluctantly picking Rutgers.)
- When McCarville was voted 2nd team AP All-American earlier this week, she just missed being voted to the 1st team by only 5 points. TCU’s Sandora Irvin got 153 points in the voting; McCarville had 148 points.
- Gopher nemesis Penn State may not be a nemesis next year. Immediately after being upset by Liberty in the opening round of the NCAA tourney, Penn State Coach Rene Portland told 3 underclassmen that they wouldn’t be returning to next year’s team. Jennifer Harris, the team’s 3rd leading scorer was among those dismissed. With 5 seniors playing their last game in the loss to Liberty, including all-conference guards Tanisha Wright and Jess Strom, the Lady Lions could be headed for the middle of the Big 10 or lower next year. No reason has been given for the dismissal of the 3 players, although it’s presumed that these problems were festering before the upset loss to Liberty. After last season, Penn State lost highly-touted freshman Receina Russell when she announced that she was transferring out of the program because she didn’t like the way PSU used its post players. Sounds like Happy Valley might not be such a happy place after all.
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