Gopher Football
Iowa
They honeymoon is over in Iowa City. Ever since Kirk Ferentz was hired after the 1998 season the Hawkeyes had met or exceeded expectations every season, up until this year. The Hawkeyes run of four straight New Years Day bowl appearances will come to an end this year after what has already been a season of great disappointment. Iowa’s much publicized internal struggles appear to have had a significant effect on a program that is used to improving throughout the season, not get worse.
Even with all of the struggles, Iowa still is a team to be reckoned with. On offense they have a talented quarterback (even if he isn’t playing the best right now), a couple of good running backs and very good receiving tight end. Offensively things will go as Drew Tate goes. Even though he has struggled the last few games, Tate has a very good history against the Gophers. In two games against Minnesota Tate is averaging 340 yards passing, with 5 TD’s and 1 INT. But in past weeks his numbers couldn’t be any further from that. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game in a month and he’s thrown 8 interceptions in 7 Big Ten starts. For the season he’s on pace to throw for 1000 yards less than he did last season (but he has missed two games with injury).
At running back Iowa has a couple good options to go to. Starter Albert Young is a proven performer, but he’s having a very bad season when compared to his potential. Last year Young was a border line 1st team All-Big Ten player, but so far this season he has yet to rush for more then 72 yards in any Big Ten game. He has missed two conference games with injury, so his rushing total in conference games is just 235 yards. Backup Damian Sims has actually put up better numbers than young and is the more dynamic of the two. Sims is averaging 66 yards in conference to rank 8th in the Big Ten, but has only 4 receptions out of the backfield compared to Young’s 17. The running backs haven’t been getting a lot of help from the offensive line. After a few years with great offensive lines the Hawkeye front five has come back down to earth a little in past two years.
The Hawkeyes leading receiver this year is a true freshman, wide receiver Dominique Douglas. So far on the season Douglas has 547 yards on 40 catches. Near the goal line the Hawkeyes love to go to their tight ends. Senior Scott Chandler leads the team with 5 touchdown receptions, and freshman Tony Moeaki has added 3 of his own. All in all the two Iowa tight ends have account for 8 of the teams 17 receiving touchdowns.
On defense, the Hawkeyes are led by first year starter at linebacker Mike Klinkenborg. The 6’2″ 240 junior has done a great job this year in helping fill the void left by Hodge and Greenway. Klinkenborg leads Iowa with an impressive 119 tackles. The other big gun for the Iowa D is junior Bryan Mattison. The big defensive end has really emerged this year, being equally effective at stopping the run as well as pressuring the quarterback. He leads Iowa with 6.5 sacks and is second with 10 tackles for loss. As a team Iowa’s defense is pretty average all the way around. They are in the middle of the Big Ten in almost every defensive category. If there’s one area of concern right now for the Hawkeyes, it’s gotta be their pass rush. Over the last three games Iowa has just 2 sacks. That doesn’t bode well against a Minnesota passing attack that exploded for 5 TD’s in their last home game against Indiana.
Why has Iowa struggled? I don’t think there is really one answer for it, but instead a combination of things. Iowa has had to deal with some injuries, most notably to quarterback Drew Tate. How much that has affected his play is up for debate, but clearly he is not playing as well as he had the last two years. Another big issue is the play of the receivers. The Hawkeyes do have a possible star in the making in Dominique Douglas, but all in all the play of the group has been sub par, highlighted by numerous dropped passes. The Hawkeyes also had numerous personnel losses after last season (most notably at linebacker, cornerback and wide receiver), and unlike past seasons the Hawkeyes have been unable to plug those holes with equal or better quality the previous season. But maybe the biggest reason is the Hawkeyes are struggling is their state of mind. This is the worst the team has done in a few years, and it’s hurting their confidence. The swagger that Iowa football has shown the past few years just is not there right now. Add it all up and you have an Iowa team that like Minnesota is 2-5 in the Big Ten.
Minnesota
The Gophers followed up their big over Indiana with another impressive performance against Michigan State last week. After falling behind 9-0 and doing virtually nothing in the first quarter, the Gophers rebounded nicely and ended up easily beating the Spartans 31-18. Amazingly enough it was the Gopher defense who got the team back into the game. Already behind 7-0 from a blocked punt touchdown, the Gophers defense had a nice goal line stand and stopped the Spartans on fourth down. Unfortunately Michigan State recorded a safety on the next play, and got the ball back in good field position. But as the Spartans were knocking on the door again that could’ve put them up 16-0, Dominique Barber picked a pass off in the end zone and the Gophers never looked back. Minnesota went on to score 31 of the next 34 points to coast to an easy win.
The Gopher passing game continues to be the story on offense. Quarterback Bryan Cupito has another good game last week, pushing his past two weeks to 6 TD’s with 0 INT’s. Cupito is spreading the ball around, getting just about everyone involved, including struggling Ernie Wheelwright.
What is in store for this game? For some reason I have a good feeling about the Gopher offense. What I’d like to see them do is spread the field with 3 and 4 receiver sets, and find a way to get Jay Thomas involved. Iowa has been having trouble stopping spread offensive sets this year, and since the Gophers have seen some success there recently I think it’s only natural they try to exploit that. Jay Thomas gave us a taste of his potential against the Hoosiers two weeks ago, showing he is faster than anyone else on offense. Now that we’re back on the Metrodome turf I’m hoping Thomas can come back out and have a big game. Since this is another do or die game, I’d also like to see the Gophers come out with some new offensive sets and try and catch Iowa off guard. Defensively, I just want the defense not to give up big plays. In the game last year, Iowa was able to bomb away and burn the gopher D for several long plays. Nothing gets your teams confidence down more than that, so if the Gophers can at least keep Iowa from making that big play, I think they’re strong enough to keep them out of the end zone a few times.
One area to watch for the Gophers is special teams, specifically the long snaps on punts. Many fans have noticed that the snaps this year have been more rainbows than ropes, and that caught up last week when a punt was blocked for a touchdown (and several other close calls). I hope that’s something the Gophers can fix this week, otherwise I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see another blocked punt.
Bottom Line
For the third week in a row, this is another tough game for me to pick. I have to think that Iowa isn’t going to struggle forever, and I also wonder if the Gopher offense is as good as they’ve shown the past few weeks. Also, considering the Gophers have five losses in a row to the Hawkeyes, and six in a row to Wisconsin and Iowa, it doesn’t seem very likely that we’ll win. But for some reason I have a good feeling about this game. The Gophers seem rejuvenated of late and Iowa is headed in the opposite direction. Iowa will get a lot of yards offensively, but the Gopher D will make a big stop at the right time. I think it will be close, but I really like the way the Gopher offense is going right now and think they’ll come through with another big game.
Prediction: Minnesota 27 ““ Iowa 24.
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