With college football and the Gophers season almost upon us, we are starting to see predictions for the season roll in. Gophers fans are waiting in anticipation to see how this team will do this season. While there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, there are enough question marks that give fans pause to delay making bowl game plans.
Although we still have to wait until next week to see the Gophers start their season against North Carolina, I noticed that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor can now be seen for every Minnesota game except against rival Wisconsin.
One thing that stood out to me was the first game against North Carolina. While Vegas thinks the Gophers are two-point favorites, ESPN Match Predictor gives them a 45.3% chance of beating the Tar Heels. Let’s take a look at the game-by-game results according to the metrics, and find out how ESPN believes that Minnesota will do during the 2024 season.
North Carolina at Minnesota
Projected record: 0-1
Matchup predictor win percentage: 45.3%
As of today, the Gophers are 2.5-point favorites against the Tar Heels, which isn’t much obviously. ESPN metrics give North Carolina the edge, slightly. This game could go either way. ESPN metrics say the Gophers lose this one.
Rhode Island at Minnesota
Projected Record: 1-1
Matchup predictor win percentage: 96.7%
ESPN Metrics say this game is the easiest one for the Gophers in 2024. Rhode Island is the only FCS team on the Gophers schedule this year.
Nevada at Minnesota
Projected Record: 2-1
Matchup predictor win percentage: 84.4%
This will be the first meeting between the two programs. The Wolfpack are predicted to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West. ESPN metrics clearly like the Gophers chances in this game.
Iowa at Minnesota
Projected Record: 2-2
Matchup predictor win percentage: 41.9%
Minnesota catches Iowa early this season as the Hawkeyes drive up on September 21st. This game should have plenty of fireworks as the Gophers look to defend Floyd for the first time since 2015. ESPN Metrics like Iowa in this game.
Minnesota at Michigan
Projected Record: 2-3
Matchup predictor win percentage: 15.6%
The Gophers first road game is a big one in The Big House against the defending national champions. The Gophers last win against Michigan came in Ann Arbor in 2014. ESPN Metrics has this game being the toughest one for Minnesota. They have the Little Brown Jug staying in Michigan.
USC at Minnesota
Projected Record: 2-4
Matchup predictor win percentage: 33.3%
The Trojans get to be the first West Coast team the Gophers face in the new Big Ten era. USC had no problems putting points on the board last season, it was their defense that let them down. ESPN metrics seem to think their defense will do fine in Dinkytown.
Minnesota at UCLA
Projected Record: 2-5
Matchup predictor win percentage: 32.3%
The Gophers will travel to Pasadena to take on a LA school for a second straight week. This percentage does surprise me, as I think the Bruins have more question marks than the Gophers heading into the season. I also don’t think this will be a tough road environment for Minnesota.
Maryland at Minnesota
Projected Record: 3-5
Matchup predictor win percentage: 50.9%
The Gophers have won two straight against Maryland at home. This is the first matchup between the programs since 2021, when the Gopher won 34-16 in Minneapolis. ESPN Metrics say this game is a toss-up.
Minnesota at Illinois
Projected Record: 3-6
Matchup predictor win percentage: 45.1%
The Gophers will travel to Champaign looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Illini. Another streak they look to end is handing Bret Bielema his first loss against Minnesota in his career. ESPN metrics say the Gophers might have a chance of doing that.
Minnesota at Rutgers
Projected Record: 3-7
Matchup predictor win percentage: 30.5%
There is a lot to look forward to in this game. As the Gophers face off against their former starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis in New Jersey. This will be Minnesota’s second straight game on the road. I thought their percentage would be a lot higher than this, but here we are.
Penn State at Minnesota
Projected Record: 3-8
Matchup predictor win percentage: 16.1%
The Battle of Governor’s Victory Bell is the second hardest game for the Gophers, per ESPN metrics. There is a lot of optimism in Happy Valley this year, and rightfully so. The Nittany Lions arguably have the best running back duo in the nation. Last time Penn State played in Minnesota? It was 2019 when the Gophers beat No. 4 Penn State.
Minnesota at Wisconsin
For some reason, ESPN Matchup Predictor doesn’t show any percentages for this game.
The Gophers travel to Madison looking to get Paul Bunyan’s Axe back.
What percentage would I give them?
I say 39%.