Gopher Basketball
Yes, I admit, you’re likely to grow weary of hearing the word “bubble” (full disclosure, I’ll use it a lot) on ESPN and other media outlets, but for me February begins the best two-month stretch of the sporting calendar. Unless your favorite team is a college hoops dinosuar (an independent with no chance for an automatic bid), it doesn’t matter whether your squad is from a major, mid-major or small-major conference; there’s always something to play for. Some have a regular-season conference championship within their sights. Others are battling for conference tournament positioning. Some are currently on solid NCAA ground and trying not to fall back to the bubble (see Minnesota), while others that got out of the gate slowly (Penn State) simply are trying to get on it. Or some combination of the above.
So with that in mind, here’s a sneak preview of the bubble. We’ll start talking a lot more about it in a couple weeks, but for now here’s a look at 10 teams we’re likely to hear the likes of Jay Bilas, Jimmy Dykes (“first class”/last seat” on the airplane) and Doug Gottlieb pontificate about as we inch toward Selection Sunday. These are (some of) the teams I’d consider squarely on the bubble as of today but a gentle reminder, the bubble is fluid; it changes every day. Some of these bubblers will make the NCAA tourney, others won’t be as fortunate.
The envelope please.
(Please note, all RPI information is courtesy of CollegeRPI.com)
Cincinnati
RPI: 47
Record: 16-3, 3-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
The Good: Win over city rival Xavier.
The Bad: #307 nonconference schedule rank (sorry Mick, the criticism of your nonconference sked is well deserved).
Cleveland State
RPI: 34
Record: 15-3, 6-2 Horizon
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3
The Good: 6-3 in true road games.
The Bad: Has whiffed on its two best chances for quality wins (West Virginia & Butler).
Colorado
RPI: 77
Record: 13-5, 3-1 Big 12
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-2
The Good: Home win over Mizzou & road win over K-State.
The Bad: #300 nonconference schedule rank
Northwestern
RPI: 64
Record: 13-5, 3-4 Big 10
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5
The Good: No bad losses; all are to teams in top 24 of the RPI.
The Bad: #274 nonconference schedule rank
Old Dominion
RPI: 23
Record: 14-4, 5-2 Colonial
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-2
The Good: Paradise Jam title included wins over Clemson & Xavier.
The Bad: Road loss to Delaware.
Richmond
RPI: 75
Record: 14-5, 3-1 Atlantic 10
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-1
The Good: Neutral-court win over Purdue could come in handy on Selection Sunday.
The Bad: Home losses to Bucknell & Rhode Island.
South Carolina
RPI: 79
Record: 12-5, 3-1 SEC
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
The Good: Win at Florida (not sure that’s so impressive after watching Gators struggle past woeful Auburn last night)
The Bad: #270 nonconference schedule rank.
UCLA
RPI: 56
Record: 12-6, 4-2 Pac 10
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
The Good: Handed BYU its only loss.
The Bad: Home loss to Montana.
Virginia Tech
RPI: 68
Record: 12-5, 3-2 ACC
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
The Good: Neutral-site win over Oklahoma State.
The Bad: To his credit Seth Greenberg upgraded the nonconference schedule. The bad news? Hokies lost most of their key non-ACC games.
Wichita State
RPI: 54
Record: 14-4, 6-2 Missouri Valley
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3
The Good: No bad losses; all are to teams in top 69 of the RPI.
The Bad: Lost crucial home games to Missouri State & Northern Iowa.
Streams of Consciousness
(1) Much has been made out of how much stronger the SEC East is than the SEC West, and so far that has proven to be true. The East holds a 7-3 edge head to head, but there has been a bright spot for the downtrodden West. Improving Alabama, which lost early in the season to Iowa, is 2-0 vs. the East, including a 68-66 upset of Kentucky.
(2) Notre Dame’s Mike Brey is the last guy that should be trumpeting how the Big East is “far and away” the best conference in the country (I agree it’s the best, but the Big Ten and Big 12 aren’t far behind). In recent years Brey’s Fighting Irish are the poster child for middlin’ NCAA-qualifying Big East teams who after much fanfare proceed to make an early exit (see 2009-10: also Georgetown, Louisville & Marquette) from March Madness.
(3) Only six college basketball programs have appeared in every NCAA Tournament since 2000. It appears all six — Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan State, Texas and Wisconsin — will continue the streak, but the Zags (losers to Santa Clara last night) and Sparty would be well advised to pick up the pace a little bit.
(4) Sharpest uniforms in college basketball (sorry Oregon, not you)? Indiana’s unis remain classic looking with their sharp simplicity and no names, and I really like what Mick Cronin has done with Cincinnati’s road blacks.
(5) Since 2000, the Gophers are one of 11 teams from a BCS conference yet to win a NCAA Tournament game. The others are Clemson, Colorado, Florida State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State, Providence, Rutgers, South Carolina and South Florida.
(6) Now that we’re roughly one-third of the way through the Big Ten schedule, it’s time for our first “Big Ten Tournament Bracket Projection.” If the tournament were held today:
Thursday, March 10 (First Round)
1:30 p.m. — #8 Penn State (3-4) vs. #9 Indiana (1-5)
3:55 p.m. — #7 Northwestern (3-4) vs. #10 Michigan (1-5)
6:30 p.m. — #6 GOPHERS (3-3) vs. #11 Iowa (0-6)
Friday, March 11 (Quarterfinals)
11 a.m. — #1 Ohio State (6-0) vs. Penn State/Indiana winner
1:25 p.m. — #4 Michigan State (4-2) vs. #5 Wisconsin (4-2)
5:30 p.m. — #2 Purdue (5-1) vs. Northwestern/Michigan winner
7:55 p.m. — #3 Illinois (4-2) vs. GOPHERS/Iowa winner
Only once in the 13-year history of the Big Ten Tournament have the Gophers avoided playing on “play-in” Thursday. That was 2004-05, when the Gophers were the #5 seed and knocked off #4 seed Indiana (Mike Davis certainly remembers what seed the Hoosiers were) in the quarterfinals. Now would be a good time for the Gophers to achieve that feat for a second time. It won’t get any easier next season when Nebraska joins the conference. Only 4 teams (instead of 5) will receive first-round byes.
You’ve Got Mail
From the Buzz Clips mailbag. …
Question: When you make your selections for the tournament, is it better for teams to have played and lost to top competition or is better to have played fewer top teams and have won a few of those games? For example, if Michigan State had not played (and lost) to Duke, Syracuse and Texas would you give them a higher seed? — Gopher in Texas —
Answer: That’s a tough one. I tend to favor teams that have played a lot of quality teams — especially outside of their conference — so long as they won at least a couple of those games. For example, I’m more likely to select a team that played a difficult schedule and went 2-6 or 2-7 vs. top-50 teams than I am to select a team that played only 2 or 3 top-50 teams and went 1-1 or 1-2. However, each case is unique, and there are exceptions. As an example I give you the 2008-09 Gophers. The Gophers only played one significant nonconference opponent (Louisville, the eventual overall #1 seed), but they won that game. Absent that win, I think it’s likely the Gophers would have been left out of the NCAA Tournament. I don’t think the sweep of Wisconsin would have been enough.
To answer your second question, if Sparty had not played the teams you mentioned they would be in a much more precarious at-large position than they are right now. Those teams are a significant reason Sparty sits #18 in the RPI with an overall schedule ranking of #4 in the nation and a nonconference schedule ranking of #19. And it’s not like they haven’t beaten anybody. The Gophers, Washington and Wisconsin all would be NCAA teams right now, and South Carolina and Oakland (ask Tennessee) aren’t bad, either. If Sparty had not lost to Duke, Syracuse and Texas and played three cupcakes instead, I think their seed would would be similar to what it likely is now, a #6 or #7.
Question: I see Texas was your fifth pick for the final four in your first column. Do you think Rick Barnes is a good enough bench coach to get them there? — fan of Ray Williams —
Answer: I know there are a lot of folks who think Barnes can’t coach his way out of a paper bag, but I’m not in that camp. He’s facing the same thing Bill Self faced a couple years ago, and the same thing John Calipari is facing now. Uber-talented roster every year means uber-expectations. I remember on this site a couple years ago hearing a lot about what a terrible coach Self was, but somehow those sentiments mostly have disappeared since he won a national title. I do think Barnes is a good enough coach to get the Longhorns back to the Final Four, and I think it will happen sooner rather than later. Perhaps not this year, but soon.