Wow. Gophers 8-point dogs to Wisky tonight

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Ogee Ogilthorpe

Ogee Ogilthorpe

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Biased or not, I'd have to say this surprises me. I figured it would be close to a pick 'em, maybe Wisky by a point or two at the most. 8 is a bunch.

Nobody said these first 4 games were going to be easy. A 1-3 start is certainly not out of the question.

Wisky is a bad matchup for the Gophers. More and more, Wisky seems to be content with bombing away from the 3-point line these days (something like 34 attempts against Coppin State?) and obviously the Gophers have not defended the arc well this year.

Should be an entertaining game though.
 

A lot of people read the KenPom statistics.

Any team that has reasonable stats from three is going to get the benefit of the doubt against our guys this year.

This is a huge game for the Gophers. We need to assert our dominance against the Badgers shown over the last two years for recruiting purposes, etc. We caught them on a slide at their place last year, which they are not on this year. Very tough game. Bring on the best effort, go small(er) and be ready to play. They can't go in a 10 point hole before the first timeout.

Would be good to hit some free throws, too.
 

Holy Man said:
We caught them on a slide at their place last year, which they are not on this year.
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Gophs ran them out of the Barn last year, didn't play them at Kohl.

Two years ago the Gophers started their slide with the OT win at Kohl. I believe they lost the next 5 or 6 after that game.
 

GoGoGophers said:
Gophs ran them out of the Barn last year, didn't play them at Kohl.

Two years ago the Gophers started their slide with the OT win at Kohl. I believe they lost the next 5 or 6 after that game.
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Stand corrected. Age is claiming my short term memory. We still need to assert our dominance.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Biased or not, I'd have to say this surprises me. I figured it would be close to a pick 'em, maybe Wisky by a point or two at the most. 8 is a bunch.

Nobody said these first 4 games were going to be easy. A 1-3 start is certainly not out of the question.Wisky is a bad matchup for the Gophers. More and more, Wisky seems to be content with bombing away from the 3-point line these days (something like 34 attempts against Coppin State?) and obviously the Gophers have not defended the arc well this year.

Should be an entertaining game though.
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I would certainly expect better than 1-3.

The past couple years MN has taken care of Wisky; Wisky is not as good this year, and MN is a whole lot better, at least should be.

No excuse for a 1-3 record to start.
 


BarnBurner said:
I would certainly expect better than 1-3.

The past couple years MN has taken care of Wisky; Wisky is not as good this year, and MN is a whole lot better, at least should be.

No excuse for a 1-3 record to start.
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I hate the Badgers, and I don't hate much of anything, but in any year taking a game at the Department Store Arena has to be a good win, and rarely can be in the "expected" category. Have you not read that Badgers strength (threes) matches up terribly with our weakness (defending threes)?

Big game tonight, and anyone calling it automatic is either wishful thinking or trying to set them up for "unmet expectations."
 


ShowinGoldyLove said:
Really?

So besides home against Indiana, what other losses would be "inexcusable?" @WI, @MSU, or @OSU?
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Yep, I'd love to start 3-2 and would be content with a 2-3 start. It doesn't get much harder than @WI, @MSU, Indiana, @OSU, Purdue as a 5 game stretch to open conference play.
 

Automatic? There is no such thing on the road in the B10. Look at Tubby's road record in conference games.

Somebody above mentioned Ken Pomeroy and according to his "calculations" the Gophs have just a 15% chance to win tonight. That's ludicrous. I would say more like 35-45% range.

Here are the 5 toughest games remaining on the schedule according to Mr. Pomeroy

@ OSU 4%
OSU (Home) 12%
@ Purdue 13%
@ Becky 15%
@ MSU 18%

Here are the 5 easiest - obviously all home games.

PSU (Home) 77%
Indiana (Home) 74%
Iowa (Home) 74%
Michigan (Home) 69%
Northwestern (Home) 63%

Note: Not one single B10 road game is > 50%
 



Easy bet. 8 point spread in favor of Wisco?! Pshhhh. It's gonna be a lot tighter than that regardless of who wins.
 

I don't think 8-point dog is that out of line for this team in this game. I think (unfortunately) Wisconsin is going to win by 6-8. And, if this game were at Williams, I think it'd be the same in our favor.

I'm not sold on this team being a true Top-15. Win tonight, and I'll change my tune.
 

KSBGopher said:
Easy bet. 8 point spread in favor of Wisco?! Pshhhh. It's gonna be a lot tighter than that regardless of who wins.
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Probably so. But this is where free throws come into play, and lead to my nervousness.
 




Art Vandelay said:
Automatic? There is no such thing on the road in the B10. Look at Tubby's road record in conference games.

Somebody above mentioned Ken Pomeroy and according to his "calculations" the Gophs have just a 15% chance to win tonight. That's ludicrous. I would say more like 35-45% range.

Here are the 5 toughest games remaining on the schedule according to Mr. Pomeroy

@ OSU 4%
OSU (Home) 12%
@ Purdue 13%
@ Becky 15%
@ MSU 18%

Here are the 5 easiest - obviously all home games.

PSU (Home) 77%
Indiana (Home) 74%
Iowa (Home) 74%
Michigan (Home) 69%
Northwestern (Home) 63%

Note: Not one single B10 road game is > 50%
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Only a 74% chance we beat Iowa at home? Dude is on some crack. I'll give Kenny P. 3/1 and put down some major cash.
 

JimMSP said:
Probably so. But this is where free throws come into play, and lead to my nervousness.
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No doubt. A 3-point margin with 55 seconds left to play can turn into an 8-10 point loss pretty easily. That's why I don't generally bet hoops games unless it's almost a pick 'em or 1-2 points in either direction and I feel pretty strongly about one team or the other.
 

Gophers take this game by 8-10 pts.

Budgies losses were to teams that had an inside game that they had to defend and they absorbed a lot of fouls that limited PT for their front court. That'll happen tonight too. See what happens when the 3 guard second team hits the floor and pushes the perimeter D on their starters. That will give a clear indication or how to play the game. Gophers have far more flexibility in manpower assignments and floor makeup. Let their two stars score, shut down the rest and the interior, Gophs win. Don't take fouls on jump shooters.
 

Gophers being underdogs is perfect, they have their best games when underdogs. RESPECT
 

Holy Man said:
I hate the Badgers, and I don't hate much of anything, but in any year taking a game at the Department Store Arena has to be a good win, and rarely can be in the "expected" category. Have you not read that Badgers strength (threes) matches up terribly with our weakness (defending threes)?

Big game tonight, and anyone calling it automatic is either wishful thinking or trying to set them up for "unmet expectations."
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Let me be clear - I did not say this was an automatic win. I said MN success vs Wisky in the recent past has been very good, home and away. And, with Tubby's own troops maturing and getting more playing time and confidence, I do expect a W tonight.

Tubby's first class are juniors; if not now, when?
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
Really?

So besides home against Indiana, what other losses would be "inexcusable?" @WI, @MSU, or @OSU?
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Really.

At what point can we expect to go on the road and win SGL?

Next month? Next year? Hall of fame coach, mature team. No reason to lose to Wisky tonight.

After the PR tourney, all was well. Talk of winning was common.

Now the expectations have been lowered, yet again before the first conf game is played.

If MN wins tonight, what will you say?
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Biased or not, I'd have to say this surprises me. I figured it would be close to a pick 'em, maybe Wisky by a point or two at the most. 8 is a bunch.

Nobody said these first 4 games were going to be easy. A 1-3 start is certainly not out of the question.

Wisky is a bad matchup for the Gophers. More and more, Wisky seems to be content with bombing away from the 3-point line these days (something like 34 attempts against Coppin State?) and obviously the Gophers have not defended the arc well this year.

Should be an entertaining game though.
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Is this the year the Badgers are going to fall back in the Big 10 because the league is no longer weak, or is the Big 10 not strong enough for that to happen yet?

Just want to get you on record before the season starts.
 


Gophers will be more prepared tonight than any game since West Virginia. Look for intensity and great defense. Coach Smith will have them ready. If the shots fall, we win. If not, it will be close.
 

I love how people are now citing our chances of winning using Pomeroy. I don't care how many different variables he takes into account. Those percentages are meaningless.
 

Spread sounds about right. Gophers have shown lots of weakness, playing to the level of the competition. This game will tell us a lot about Tubby's coaching and a lot about the team.
 

Wisconsin

I hope they bomb away from three.. No Bohannon and no Hughes this year they made big shots last year..

I would rather see Leuer playing 20 feet from the hoop then 12 feet.. Gophers need to attack Nankivil and get some fouls on him.

The total has dropped from 127 to 125 looks like the oddsmaker expect a low scoring game if that is the case take the points/Gophs and run.
 

GVBadger said:
Is this the year the Badgers are going to fall back in the Big 10 because the league is no longer weak, or is the Big 10 not strong enough for that to happen yet?

Just want to get you on record before the season starts.
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You do realize that just because Wisky hasn't finished lower than 4th under Bo doesn't mean that it will never happen, right? It's a little absurd how some Badger fans act like it's permanently impossible. :rolleyes:

(By the way, that's TIED for 4th.)

That said...I don't think they will fall in the standings this year. I did at the start of the season until I saw how awful Illinois and Michigan State can look some games. Throw in the uninspired, sloppy play by the Gophers in recent games... I think Wisconsin will now finish about third. (Please, God, let me be wrong! :D )

The Gophers better quit having slow starts and sloppy first halves or they are going to find themselves down big at halftime on the road against the better Big Ten teams.
 

This year's Badger team: 38.2% from 3. Last year's team entering conference play: 36.4%

Leuer from 2 this year: 55/107, 1.03 pts/FGA. From 3: 30/60, 1.5 pts/FGA. Even if you took all of Leuer's FTMs (38) and added them to his 2 pt total, it'd still be 1.38 pts/FGA.

I think hoping Leuer bombs away from 3 is a bad proposition.

Roland Brooks said:
I hope they bomb away from three.. No Bohannon and no Hughes this year they made big shots last year..

I would rather see Leuer playing 20 feet from the hoop then 12 feet.. Gophers need to attack Nankivil and get some fouls on him.

The total has dropped from 127 to 125 looks like the oddsmaker expect a low scoring game if that is the case take the points/Gophs and run.
Click to expand...
 

I think tonight's game depends on three things, any of them could cost the Gophers if not taken care of.
1. for the team to play as good as before Nolan's injury. Getting back in the groove.
2. Free throws. One of the teams weaknesses. If they do not hit them tonight, at least 85 percent, they are in trouble.
3. Defending perimeter shooting. If Wisky gets hot from distance, the Gophers have to score big themselves.
 

85% from the FT line? Let's hope for 70%....and less than 12 TO's = a win for the Gophers.
 

Wisconsin will shoot more free throws than the Gophers. They usually have that advantage, especially when they are home. With Mo out this it would be very bad news if our big guys got in foul trouble.

This could be the most important game of the BT season for both teams as far as team confidence goes.

If we can beat Whiskey I think we have an even better shot at beating Sparty.
 

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