Why can't Minnesota win six games in 2011?

[RodentRampage]

Even those who don't think that the Gophers will win 6 games don't think that it is unrealistic to win 6 games. Getting to 6 wins is good, but so is exceeding expectations. If people expect us to win 6 games, then 6 wins looks pretty ho-hum. But if we are only expected to win 4 games, 6 games looks awfully good. It's hard to very confident in 6 wins for a new coach with a new system, when the team only won 3 games the previous year. I'm certainly hoping that the Gophers win 6 games.

 

[GoAUpher]

I think its interesting everyone is wanting to wait for spring practice to determin how good or bad the Gophers will be next year. If you want to know how we will look. I would guess we will look confused, lost, and at times pathetic. The players will be getting their first cracks at another new offense and a new defense which means plenty of question marks and problems.

Spring practice is not supposed to look good its supposed to be a teaching time and people put way to much stock into it.

If what you say turns out to be true (and it wouldn't surprise me if it did) then it will simply reinforce my concerns for next year. In other words, I'll feel the same coming out of Spring that I do now....cautiously optimistic but not expecting too much too soon. I won't feel worse b/c I'm not going to freak out over a team struggling with a system change.

But if they look good or show signs of picking up the new system more quickly then it might make me more optimistic.

I don't see why waiting for more data points is a bad thing personally.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Winning six games is realistic in my opinion. We have done it frequently lately in recent past history. It is important to show the 2012 recruits that progress is being made and go to a lower level bowl again....any bowl.

There is the largest group of DI Minnesota recruits in a long time. They will make other choices if we look woeful again next year (prior to closing strong this past season). It is not just a number.
Six has significance in perception beyond a 500 regular season. Going to a bowl...being a bowl team....getting the extra practices. The perception to a recruit if I sign on I can make a difference and get us to a better bowl. Versus I don't know....they are pretty bad.

60's this is a great point. Next season, it is vital that there is a shot of excitement around this football team and that would probably happen with 6ish wins. A bowl game would give us a decent amount of excitement (plus those all important bowl practices) that could really help this program with the 2012 recruits.

I also think it helps the younger guys, especially the ones who weren't signed by Kill, to go "all in" on this new guy. If Hageman comes out and has moments of showing his potential, he could be a complete beast in 2012. If Vereen and Manuel resemble a tough Big 10 secondary, even just for a few moments/games, it will go far in their development in 2012/2013 to really buying into Jerry Kill.

 

[imthewalrus]

I don't know how many games Coach Kill and the Gophers will win in 2011. I am certain that Coach Kill and his staff will evaluate the talent that they have for the 2011 season and will attempt to run an offense that will give the players that they do have the best chance to be competetive. I beieve the same will be true on the defensive side of the ball. Discipline, Team Unity and good game planning and preperation will also play a very vital and important role with these Gopher Players.

I am relatively certain that Coach Kill, his staff and the players will NOT go 0-8 in
Big Ten Play. That would not only be shocking to me, but would also prove very hard to overcome. Coach Kill and his staff will have the team ready for Big Ten play. Each and every Big Ten win that they can obtain during the 2011 season will be land marks in the building of this program. A Big Ten win can do MORE to build a Big Ten Team than anything else. The rest will begin to fall in place. It is going to be a lot of fun to watch the building that goes on within this program.

I am very impressed with Coach Kill's apparent attention to detail and also by the fact that he KNOWS what he wants to do and that what he wants to do is what he has ALWAYS done at every stop of his coaching career.

Big Ten wins are not awarded for just showing up. They have to be earned. For a Big Ten Football Team, the Big Ten season is what the football season is all about. Sure, ooc games happen, but, Big Ten games need to be what the season is all about. Certainly, ooc wins can help a team prepare for the Big Ten Season...and can help the team qualify for a bowl game.

IF Coach Kill and his team can win enough Big Ten games to get to a bowl game with the addition of their ooc wins in 2011, it would be a very remarkable event. I won't count on it happening, but, I certainly won't count it out either!

Big Ten Football WILL be back on campus in 2011. Be there!

 

[nc2mn]

I for one am enjoying fantasizing about how Bob Stoops did when he took over Oklahoma. No, I'm not thinking about a national or even big 10 title for the Gophers, but I think Brewster underperformed in coaching his teams and that there is room for Kill to take advantage of that. And Kill seems to have a good enough grasp of things to at least improve on last year's record. 3-1 non-conference and .500 in the Big 10 would be nice, and not unattainable, i think. But then, I've always been a bit of a dreamer.

 

[husker70]

Minnesota was at its best last year when Weber ran for some first downs, rather than throwing it incomplete, or being sacked. He got us out of third down with his legs. That being said, Mr. Gray has a great set of wheels, and will present a run threat, along with the running back they chose. I like Edwards. You need two threats in the backfield. Preferablly a compliment. Again I will rate the QB/RB combo a plus this year.

The offensive line. Ryan Wynn was the most athletic lineman Coach Brewster had in his first season. He I think is a senior and slotted to start at Center. Center is the most criticial position on the offensive line. And having experience is a great thing. If you don't have experience you better have all the tools. Tommy Olson has all the tools. If not a guard, he could surely press at the center. Bunders and Orton have experience as well, then you add in Ed Olson Jr., Jimmy Gjere, and Brooks Michel. The offensive line is more athletic, and a lot more nasty. I like this years offensive line. Again a plus.

Recievers, this will be in large part Grays's ability to hit the open man. Weber was crazy good when he had Decker. Without Decker not so much. Can McKnight make Gray's year? Or vice versa?
This is the key to the season. Can Gray take advantage of 8 in the box.
This I am affraid is a minus. However, there could be the one or three big strikes a game that could make the difference.

Defense, tell me we won't be better. We have an experienced D.C. who has a successfull system. This defense will play a lot like it did under David Gibbs. The defensive line will get up the field to make the tackle in the backfield, rather than shielding the linebackers so they can make the tackle. Do we have shutdown corners? Not quite. We will continue to struggle on defense, it will be a whole lot of bending trying to take the ball away. We will be better on defense.

Special Teams. Coach Kill is known for special teams play. Blocking kicks are a sepcialty. We will be better. Playing on a shorter field makes scoring a lot easier.


Will it translate into 5, 6, or 8 wins. It's why they play the games. I like our chances going into 2011.

 

[ProGopher]

Difference in next season...

The Gophers have been so one dimensional in their approach to the game for so long it's crazy. It seems as if they've fed off of one good attribute and abused it to the point that other teams make simple adjustments and win. In video games I would refer to this as "Video Abuse", using an attribute of the game over and over in order to win. The Michigan game in 04 , the 31 point comeback ,etc. Prime example of being so one dimensional we couldn't recover.

I want to see a Gopher team that can morph itself to whatever it needs in order to win or compete. I think that Kill's approach is about having the whole team involved. There were times I cringed for Eric Decker because I thought he was being hung out to get killed far too often. Kill will not call games like that, imo. If we don't see the wins I DO think we'll see a difference in the level of play.

Perhaps we lose some close games where expectations were low in the first place. I think the longterm Gopher fans will see the difference in a team that loses close competitive games vs. being blown out on talent and scheme levels..

 

[Navin]

but I think Brewster underperformed in coaching his teams and that there is room for Kill to take advantage of that. And Kill seems to have a good enough grasp of things to at least improve on last year's record.

I'm hoping Kill is to Brewster what Brenda Oldfield was to Cheryl Littlejohn.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

I am not one to make pre-season predictions as there are too many unkowns at this juncture. Here is my take on the coming season.

The season ending W's over the Illini and Iowa was impressive and rather shocking. It said a lot about the attitude of the players under a different leadership with Coach Horton and staff. The pressure was off. I believe the returning players learned a lot from those W's and realize that they have the ability to do better.

With the advent of Coach Kill, the guys will have to retool and will learn how to fit into another new system. Not just a system but one that is very demanding but has had success written all over it. But I think this is a great opportunity for the team to rally around coaches who know what they want, how to get it done and have made it work. Coach Kill has a lot to offer the players and I hope they follow his lead.

The current conditioning program is very important. From what I have read, the guys have a tough road ahead and will be held accountable to their workout and be expected to improve. If the players show significant gains in strength, flexibility and speed, etc. that should go a long way to convice them that Coach Kill can make them better.

I don't expect any defections from this squad. One bad apple is gone and Kill has put guys in bad academic standing in lock down. There is a new way of doing business. Either join in or take a hike. If Coach Kill showed Edwards the door, that had to get the attention of the rest of the squad. The same will happen for others who don't put in the work.

Kill is building a foundation and getting the type of players he wants which will take some time. But I think there is enough talent and experience around so that we could see more good things in 2011 similar to the pleasant surprise at the end of the 2010 season.

 

[corcoran1]

I mostly agree with GoAUpher. I think these coaches will do well. I believe the defense will be better than last year despite the loss of Edwards. This defense fits Kirksey and Jacobs a lot better than Cosgrove's did, and they will all be in better position to rush the passer if they do not have to start each play with a wrestling match with an offensive lineman, and then try to disengage. If Miller is as good a linebacker coach as we believe, they will be better as well, even though I think Butler did a good job, he just had too many new starters at the start of last season. It took Tinsley a long time to learn to stay in postion. They played okay at the end of the year and Beal should help. Stoudermire was the best player on defense the last month of the season, and if Royston is healthy two of four positions are covered in the dbackfield. Two of Vereen, Carter, Bouie, Watkins and Montgomery have to step up, I think that is possible. I am betting Manuel will be an OLB, but I hope he really is the big Safety we haven't had for 7+ years.
That leaves us with DE as a critical position. First, I think the system change will help, because lining up wider will mean they don't immediately start out in the grip of the OT. Secondly, I think Coach Cross was a decent coach for DTs, but our DEs never improved under him. The Brewster regime seemed to think the positions were interchangeable, that has never been my belief. I think the way the postion is played in this system, the players we have can be more effective earlier in their career than in Cosgrove's, but until we see differently, this is still the biggest hole on defense by a lot. I am hoping Garin and Wilhite can really develop, but we don't know that. Anyway barring injuries at key positions, the defense should be better.
Our offense is a complete crap shoot. Gray is the best athlete on the team, but we know from watching him play he has a lot to learn about reading defenses, especially for passing. So his effectiveness will be controlled by how good Coach Z and Coach Limegrover are in keeping the offense simple enough that he has confidence in what he is doing until he really masters the whole thing. (Weber should have been so lucky). The good news is these guys are college coaches and they understand that.
RBs, TEs, and HBs are not a problem, Coach Kill has said he likes the TE talent, Eure should be a monster at TE in this system. He is big, strong can really run, and he mostly will not have to catch the ball. Lair and the JC kid (Rabe)are good athletes, they will be good at HBack.
RB will be good, and if Edwards is the real deal it could be very good by year end.
So we come to the biggest issue on the team, the O-line. Forget the long term, the issue is this year. Ed Olson will be a good tackle, I am not convinced Michel will be able to play this year either if the concussion issue was that serious, so the remaining linemen are? My guess Gjere, Campion, Orton, Wynn at the start. Given that Wynn has been injured every season, it is a pretty good bet that T.Olson and M. Lenkwiecz may be starting by year end.
Our record will be determined by whether we are ready to beat Miami, NDSU, Michigan and Purdue early. Those have to look like they are among the winnable games on the schedule. Unfortunately for us, the most winnable BigTengames for us are on the road for a second year in a row. That is a problem for multiple reasons, but the biggest is that this team needs wins early and two of the most beatable BT teams next year should be Mich and Purdue, beating them on the road is a much tougher task. (Not winning at home is also a big fan problem and the sooner we can make this a place good teams do not want to visit the better.)
My prediction is that this team will go 4-8 or 5-7, and will actually be playing pretty good ball by mid-season, but all of their easiest games will be behind them, actually similar to last year except they will not look bad on defense early as they did last year. They could do better, but if they really struggle coming out of the gate, for example Gray has a game with multiple picks against a beatable team, we could do worse. With all of the new starters on offense, I do not believe the offense will click until midyear, and by that time we are playing really good teams. There is upside, but betting on it with a team with this many new starters in a new offensive scheme seems like a stretch to me.
Just my view.

 

[dpodoll68]

I agree with most everything you said corcoran, but I don't see how Bunders isn't starting this year, especially with the last two years under his belt. Experience on the OL will be at a premium when the depth chart will be filled with RSFr and true freshmen.

 

[MaroonGopher]

I'd be disappointed if we didn't win 8. We beat Iowa last year and have them Wisconsin, Nebraska all at home with no Ohio St or Penn St and not your Pete Carroll USC teams.

Did I read that correctly?
Eight games??????????????????????????????????? Are you *&^!#*&^!#*&^!#*&^!#ing serious????????????

 

[LonelyIowaGopher]

MaroonGopher,
How many #@!&@#%&!!! games do you think Minnesota will win next year? You seem pretty sure that it won't be eight. You must have some number in mind.

 

[corcoran1]

dpodoll, you are probably right about Bunders

 

[3399]

I see no reason why the Gophers could not win as many as 8 games this next year. With all the changes to the coaching staff and another offense and defense the Gophers could struggle to win 5 games. It could be all over the map this year which is why it makes it do interesting but also tough to say because we know so very little.

Hey everyone wants to be optimistic but this post is laughable.

I think the Gopher schedule is set up well for a high number of wins as the Non-Conference schedule isnt as tough as in past years and USC will have a tough time preparing for the Gophers with all the changes we will have. I think the timing of the USC game is as good as it could be as USC will have no tape to watch which should help the Gophers. Do you really think USC cares if they have tape?? They have talent, proven talent. What do they care if they have tape? Do you understand that Miami is coming off a bowl win and return quite a bit? They will not be a pushover. NDSU is very capable of coming to MN and winning. Remember, Northern Illinois beat Minnesota. Miami beat N Ill. Northern Ill barely , and I mean barely, beat North Dakota last year. And NDSU is a lot better than NoDak. The Big Ten schedule isnt bad either not compared to past years as team like Iowa and Wisconsin are losing some major contributers. Are you saying you would rather have the Gophers roster over Wisconsin?? Really?? Remember, the Gophers are losing some key contributors. Iowa beat themselves as much as the Gophers beat them this year. You cannot expect that again.Michigan will be going similar changes to the Gophers with a new coaching staff. But they start with more talent. Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue are not top end Big Ten teams. Depending on how quickly the new Gopher Coaches can get the systems in place and how quickly the teams accepts them will determin just how good they can be. I don't see many games where I see that is a loss but I also dont see many games where I say that is a win either.

What to like
Experienced and talented stable of RB's. ARE YOU SERIOUS??????? Did you flashback to the Maroney Barber years??? Who are you talking about??Eskridge in his career- 678 yds, 3.7 ypc; 309 yds, 4.0 ypc; 698 yds, 3.6 ypc. Bennett - 442 yds, 4.1 ypc; 140 yds, 4.4 ypc; 378 yds, 3.8 ypc; 529 yds, 4.3 ypc. Experienced, yes. But talented?? Huh?? The top talent is young but two solid veterans have been around. If the young guys are so good, how come they couldn't beat out guys who can only get 4 yards a carry?? Now throw in the fact that this team is losing four of their top six o-lineman and an inexperienced qb, and they are all learning yet another new system.

The D-line for the most part has been around and should be even better this season. Losing Edwards hurts some but this group should be better than last year which will also help the LBers.
Do you realize just how bad they were?? Now they lose Edwards, who led the team in sacks with three and TFL's with 11. Here are the numbers for the returnees- Kirksey 28 taclkles, 5.5 tfl, and 0 sacks; garin- 13 1 0; jacobs 41 6.5 2; hageman 5 0 0; Wilhite 14 2.5 1; Gregory-McGhee 4 1 1. It would be a major improvement if Kirksey had 2 sacks, Garin had 2, and WIlhite had 3. And that would not be enough. Plus, mnay of the back-ups are completely unknown. And if they were not good enogh to beat out these guys, how good can they be?

The LBers should be as improved a unit as this team has. Moving Tinlsey outside with Beal going to the middle should add another strong tackler to the defense. This should also get Tinsley blitzing more which could be a great thing because he is such a hard hitter. Beal is such an unknown. Can he stay healthy? Is he ven very good? He was a 3rd string guy on an average Florida team. Would FLorida let him get away if he was really that good?

I think this team has a couple strong pass catchers with McKnight and Lair both of whom could have big years next season. The problem is those around them will be questioned. The sooner the other pass catchers improve this unit will be a suprise if we can get them the ball. Who are these guys going to be??? Everyone will be completely inexperienced and I don't see a guy in the recruiting class that looks like a sure thing coming in this fall. Is it an All American group? Of course it isnt but it could be good enough to make the Gopher offense balanced and dangerous.

What is scarry.
The QB spot- As much as Gray's running could be a fit in this type of offense its hard to say if he will be able to throw the ball. He just hasnt done it enough to say one way or the other. His inability to work his way past Weber the last couple of years is a concern to me. It should. Gray only played one full year at QB in HS and was about a 51% passer that season. In his career at MN he is 8-23. There are a lot of questions he will need to answer. I just don't understand why some think he is such a sure thing.

O-Line I have no doubt we have more natural skill along the line top to bottom but is it ready to play? We will not know until they take the field and there will be growing pains. If this group performs at the same level or higher than last years group the Gophers will win 6 games that I do not doubt. Last years line was good for three wins. The returnees couldn't beat them out. It a group of almost no quality experienced depth.

Secondary- Royston is back to supply experience not sure if he adds much more than that. He didnt play well in his first year as a Gopher I hope he can play well this year. Carter needs to step up and get on the field. Everything is a question mark. Carter was AWFUL last year and showed he can't tackle. Tackling has to be a major concern. The two top tacklers in the sceondary from last year are gone. Royston will help, but I think it is wise to cautious with him- he had a major injury. Who knows what he will be like.


Is a 6 win season possible? Yes it is very possible IMO then again I think 8 wins is too but so it 5 wins.

Sure six wins is possible, but if they win three that will be quite an achievement. Give Kill a break, he is not a miracle worker. This is going to be a long long process.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Sure six wins is possible, but if they win three that will be quite an achievement. Give Kill a break, he is not a miracle worker. This is going to be a long long process.

Saying that winning 3 games would be "quite an achievement" is not any more absurd than predicting that we would win 8 games. It's possible that we'd only win 3 games, but could never be thought of as an impressive achievement. We are returning quite a bit (almost everything) from a 3 win team.