Why can't Minnesota win eight games in 2012?

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LonelyIowaGopher

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Since many here have already begun talking at some length about the 2012 recruiting class, why not discuss the actual 2012 football season? Based on recent comments on other threads with themes related to this one, the following consensus seems to have emerged:

1. Minnesota had a 2011 recruiting class that is considered by people here to have been C+ on average.

2. The three recruiting classes before 2011 have been downgraded significantly by most posters due to players who never made it into school, players who have left the team and so forth.

3. Minnesota goes into the 2011 season with an unproven quarterback, a young offensive line, a thin receiving corp, a terrible defensive line and a questionable defensive backfield.

4. Jerry Kill and his staff have not proven that they can recruit at the BCS level and their sytems are largely untested against Big 10 opponents.

5. Less than half of the posters here believe Minnesota will win six games in 2011.

I think all of these views are too negative and have said that Minnesota will win at least six games in 2011. In addition, I think the 2012 team will be one of the best the Gophers have fielded in a long time. It will be run by a proven quarterback (not necessarily MG), will have a more experienced and quite talented offensive line, it will have the best defense Minnesota has had in decades and its special teams will be outstanding.

I think Minnesota will win at least eight games in 2012. If they don't, Jerry Kill is going to have a long, hard slog ahead of him to get Minnesota to an eight win season. He'll have to recruit better than Brewster and coach much better than Mason to do so. I'm much more hopeful than that. Brewster did not leave the cupboard bare and, in fact, put a lot of his most talented athletes on the defensive side of the ball. Defense wins football games.
 

Just so we are all prepared, are you going to keep using the "Why can't Minnesota win _____ games in ______?" format and start a theoretically unlimited number of threads with it? Is it going to be "Why can't Minnesota win 10 games in 2013?" and "Why can't Minnesota win 12 games in 2014?" threads next, keeping with the +2 wins and +1 years format? Or are you going to shake it up a little and throw random wins and years out there? I can't speak for anyone else, but I know that I'm breathless with anticipation.
 

Is there any possibility that you may have been posting here before under a different name? Just wondering.....
 


Why can't Minnesota win 16 games in 2016?
 



If we beat USC, something must be seriously wrong with USC.
 

Remember back in 2007 when we all thought Berwster would get the team in a bowl for sure?
 




dpodoll68 said:
Remember three weeks ago before LIG was a member here? Good times, good times.
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23 threads later, we have a very annoyed dpodoll!

That's about one thread started per day...a prolific rate! I was curious to see if he could sustain it...now you've probably gone and scared him off!
 

No one is saying the Gophers can't win six games this season. No one is saying they can't win 8 games in 2012, although people aren't very focused on 2012 right now.
 

5. Less than half of the posters here believe Minnesota will win six games in 2011.
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Five wins is probably a good middle of the road number right now. I honestly think we could win anywhere from 3 to 7 games next year. We know Gray is a great athlete, but can he run the ball well and stay healthy for an entire season? We know Gray has a great arm, but can he throw with accuracy and be a team leader in practice and on the field?

And there's no way of really knowing how fast the players will pick up on the new schemes. There's always a transitional period when a new coaching staff comes in. Things could "click" early on or it could take all season. That right there can make a big difference.

I think most try to be positive, but I can understand being cautious when making predictions when there really is so much uncertainty.
 

These kinds of projections about the 2012 football team are way too early, our entire team is going to be made up of guys who we have really no idea about their ability.

Gray: We haven't seen him pass the ball much at all, who knows? He looks like he could be fantastic, but who knows.
Kirkwood: Very limited action he looked decent, but it was extremely limited amount of action
WR: We don't have anyone scheduled to be on our 2012 football team who has accomplished anything. Can you really guess how good Kiese is going to be? Harris? Crawford-Tufts? Gardiner?
TE: a complete unknown

You get my point...
 



1. But it's okay for people to start threads about 2012 and 2013 recruiting?
2. Nobody comments more on my threads than the people who post here the most every day. Do THEY have too much time on their hands?
3. Boards like this are usually full of the most loyal and optimistic followers of a team. If this one reflects the general negativity of Minnesota's most loyal and "in the know" fans, God help Jerry Kill and the Gopher football program.
4. If people don't like my threads, they don't have to read them--let alone comment on them. Over 1,500 read the thread about Minnesota winning six games in 2011. Was that because it was slightly positive on a very, very negative message board? Or are postive comments here viewed like people who watch car crashes?
5. Iowa and Wisconsin message boards have fewer negative things to say about Minnesota Gopher football than this web site does. I've read them. They're refreshingly positive.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
1. But it's okay for people to start threads about 2012 and 2013 recruiting?
2. Nobody comments more on my threads than the people who post here the most every day. Do THEY have too much time on their hands?
3. Boards like this are usually full of the most loyal and optimistic followers of a team. If this one reflects the general negativity of Minnesota's most loyal and "in the know" fans, God help Jerry Kill and the Gopher football program.
4. If people don't like my threads, they don't have to read them--let alone comment on them. Over 1,500 read the thread about Minnesota winning six games in 2011. Was that because it was slightly positive on a very, very negative message board? Or are postive comments here viewed like people who watch car crashes?
5. Iowa and Wisconsin message boards have fewer negative things to say about Minnesota Gopher football than this web site does. I've read them. They're refreshingly positive.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ide0NFj9arU
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
1. But it's okay for people to start threads about 2012 and 2013 recruiting?
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Why wouldn't it be okay? Even though it is labeled "2012 recruiting", that process has started and is ongoing until signing day next year. I don't think the coaching staff is looking ahead towards the 2012 season already. But for recruiting, they have to. I don't know how you can't see the difference in the two.
 

Come now there is room for us all. The delusional optimists, the nattering nabobs of negativism, and everyone in between.

I feel like, for the most part, that people on the boards have not been as much negative as guardedly optimistic. Which is understandable considering what the program has been through for the last 40 some years.
 

That Is Why They Play the Games

Hopefully the warm up will get people thinking about spring and off this topic. It is certainly understandable that people are thinking about this but it is very foolish to think that the answer will come from here. The answer will come from only one place and that is on the field. So Let it unfold on its own and enjoy the change that Kill is bringing to Minnesota. Go Gophers!
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
1. But it's okay for people to start threads about 2012 and 2013 recruiting?
2. Nobody comments more on my threads than the people who post here the most every day. Do THEY have too much time on their hands?
3. Boards like this are usually full of the most loyal and optimistic followers of a team. If this one reflects the general negativity of Minnesota's most loyal and "in the know" fans, God help Jerry Kill and the Gopher football program.
4. If people don't like my threads, they don't have to read them--let alone comment on them. Over 1,500 read the thread about Minnesota winning six games in 2011. Was that because it was slightly positive on a very, very negative message board? Or are postive comments here viewed like people who watch car crashes?
5. Iowa and Wisconsin message boards have fewer negative things to say about Minnesota Gopher football than this web site does. I've read them. They're refreshingly positive.
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For the record, LiG, the vast majority of people here, myself included, don't care how many threads you start. The more the better, actually. I agree, if you don't care, don't read the thread.
That said, the question starting this thread is a little silly. Of course they could win 8 games in 2012. They could also win one game, or twelve. Who the hell knows? No one.
 



RedPoo said:
For the record, LiG, the vast majority of people here, myself included, don't care how many threads you start. The more the better, actually. I agree, if you don't care, don't read the thread.
That said, the question starting this thread is a little silly. Of course they could win 8 games in 2012. They could also win one game, or twelve. Who the hell knows? No one.
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Exactly right. If you want to claim great optimism LIG, explain why you think we will win 8 games. Keep in mind we are in the toughest division in the BigTen, at this point by a lot. You try to disprove every who disagrees, but you are the person making what most people would consider to be extraordinary claims. I believe the scientific phrase for this is "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof". Prove away. Most of us would love you to be right.
 

Ron Johnson Super Fan said:
Find a friend, dude. You really must be way too lonely.
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Why do people give lonely such crap for his posts? ISN'T THIS BOARD WHAT SUCH TOPICS ARE FOR? For gopher fans to express and post their thoughts about their favorite team and ask for intelligent responses? If not, don't read, don't post and get a life yourself. Flipp'n rubes... :confused:
 

Gopher028 said:
Why do people give lonely such crap for his posts? ISN'T THIS BOARD WHAT SUCH TOPICS ARE FOR? For gopher fans to express and post their thoughts about their favorite team and ask for intelligent responses? If not, don't read, don't post and get a life yourself. Flipp'n rubes... :confused:
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Lonely didn't really get a ton of crap until he started constantly whining about people disagreeing with him. People on this board have generally disagreed on a ton of things, i've never seen anyone throw such an emo fit when people don't agree with them. It's fine though, he can continue posting, but he will always get crap when he goes hyperemo on the thread.
 

In my posts about Minnesota winning six games in 2011 and eight games in 2012, I started by listing the many reasons why I think both are possible only to have posters comment, "Why don't you give us reasons why you say what you do?" Quite the discussion board.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
In my posts about Minnesota winning six games in 2011 and eight games in 2012, I started by listing the many reasons why I think both are possible only to have posters comment, "Why don't you give us reasons why you say what you do?" Quite the discussion board.
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Lonely, we get it, everyone here sucks and you don't like our posts... Well I have news for you, no one is forcing you to stay here. You existed prior to gopherhole as did we, perhaps we were both happier when our lives were separate. You have great admiration for the Iowa and Bucky boards, maybe you should switch your posting talents to one that is more positive that might appreciate what you bring in a proper fashion as they are obviously wasted on us negative jerks here. I'm proposing that rather than continuing to try to convert us heathens you simply go somewhere where people have similar ideas.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
In my posts about Minnesota winning six games in 2011 and eight games in 2012, I started by listing the many reasons why I think both are possible only to have posters comment, "Why don't you give us reasons why you say what you do?" Quite the discussion board.
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Grab a handful of kleenux to wipe your tears and then lets talk football.

You said that you thought we'd win 8 games because we were going to have an experienced QB, will have a more experienced and talented OL, the best defense in ages, and great special teams.

I merely pointed out that a large chunk of that 2012 is a complete unknown.

-I'll give you the experienced QB bit because I am pretty confident that MG is going to do a fine job.
-Our OL will almost certainly be less experienced in 2012. I am assuming that Bunders (a 5th yr SR), Orton (a 5th yr SR), and Wynn (a 5th yr SR) all play a significant role on the team and likely start. We will be replacing them with guys who "seem" to have more talent, but those three guys have nearly 60 starts between them going into their senior seasons. We will be with an offensive line without a SR. I'm not saying that our offensive line won't be better in 2012 than it is in 2011, but we will be pretty young and as of right now (when your prediction is being made), you are basing your prediction off of 1 player who you've seen play (Ed Olson) significantly and another player who played some (Michel). I don't mean to rip your opinion, but it is sort of a hunch more than supported by a ton of actual on the field results.

As far as our defense, well, I think that's a jump.
Our defensive line will likely be : Garin - Tauaefa - Hageman - Wilhite
-This isn't a group that has shown much at all. Garin struggled quite a bit last season and the DT's have shown nothing. Wilhite has flashes some OK play. My point isn't that these guys won't improve, my point is that it is impossible to really guess we will get from these guys.
-Our LBs, this should be a good group: Cooper - Beal - Rallis
-Our defensive backs are a complete unknown. We have to assume M. Carter keeps himself on the up and up and show that he can improve. Vereen struggled a ton last year. Montgomery hasn't taken a college snap. Etc, etc. Our Dbacks are completely unproven.

My point is that guessing what the 2012 football team is RIGHT NOW, is extremely hard. There are so many players who will be key players in 2012 that we haven't seen anything from yet. It doesn't mean they won't be get better, but it is almost impossible to guess what the team will do in 2012.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
In my posts about Minnesota winning six games in 2011 and eight games in 2012, I started by listing the many reasons why I think both are possible only to have posters comment, "Why don't you give us reasons why you say what you do?" Quite the discussion board.
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That response, "Why don't you give us reasons why you believe they CAN?" is exactly how a thread should start. Instead of asking for reasons why they won't win 8 games (and there are MANY reasons why they might not, including but not limited to a the program getting the death penalty from the NCAA next season, a couple bad breaks in winnable games, or a gigantic meteorite hitting Chicago tomorrow and wiping out the next 185 college football seasons) you should start by explaining how you think it could happen. I don't disagree that it's a possibility, but if you're asking for someone to prove something isn't going to happen, you first have to explain why you think it will.


Again, I'm not trying to be a dick, and I welcome every new thread we get. I'm just explaining how a reasonable discussion/argument might go.
 

Bob Loblaw,
Thank you for your informed response. That is all I've been seeking--informed responses. If you'll review this thread you will see that there have been very, very few of them.

My original thread on this subject concluded with me predicting that Minnesota would win six games in 2011. I gave many specific reasons why I thought this was possible. Again, the vast majority of comments that followed were either nonresponsive (dealing with anything but Minnesota football) or expressed the opinion that the Gophers would not win six games in 2011.

My follow-up thread took my original thoughts one more year out. Obviously, no one knows for sure how many games Minnesota will win in 2011 and 2012. That's why they play the games, I guess. But if a fan thought Minnesota would win at least six games in 2011 (like I do), why wouldn't that fan assume the Gophers would be even better in 2012? A more athletic defense will have two full years of experience under its belt, the special teams should improve steadily and the new offense will be fully installed.

I get the impression more and more around here that Tim Brewster couldn't even recruit. I don't believe that. It is my belief that Minnesota has a solid corp of athletes who were very, very young in 2010. They got infinitely better as a team by November of last year. This is partially due to being so terrible in September and October. But the wins over Illinois and Iowa showed the Gophers have talent and character. Those are things upon which a good coaching staff can build. I see the three wins in 2010 followed by at least six wins in 2011 and (hopefully) eight wins in 2012. It's the kind of progression you always see when a college football program is being turned around.

Finally, the Big 10 is just not that great a football conference these days. Winning six to eight games a year shouldn't be that hard to do. Doing so will only get you into a minor bowl game. How hard is that to do? Can't Minnesota fans even expect that from their football program? My Lord, even Tim Brewster did it twice.
 

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