Which college football teams are most helped — and hurt — by conference realignment?

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MisterGopher

MisterGopher

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It was an uphill climb for the Gophers in the old system...maybe we had optimism it shouldn't have been...but it was.

I think playing in the Big Ten if do put together a 10 win season that we probably have a better chance to be one of 12 teams in the playoffs. In the old system we had to play Ohio State or Michigan and beat them to advance. Now, if we are one of the 12 we probably play somebody we beat in 1960 or something...so there will be optimism we can do this.

This could be the year...we are predicted to either win 10 or 5...lets try 10...see what happens.
 

60's Guy said:
It was an uphill climb for the Gophers in the old system...maybe we had optimism it shouldn't have been...but it was.

I think playing in the Big Ten if do put together a 10 win season that we probably have a better chance to be one of 12 teams in the playoffs. In the old system we had to play Ohio State or Michigan and beat them to advance. Now, if we are one of the 12 we probably play somebody we beat in 1960 or something...so there will be optimism we can do this.

This could be the year...we are predicted to either win 10 or 5...lets try 10...see what happens.
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Where have you seen 10 wins predicted (outside of Gopher Hole, that is!)? I'd love to see it happen, but if it does, I'm not sure who is going to be able to say they called it.
 


It's hard to know. The list just happens to have the power teams at the top and then declining power from there.

Can any prediction be made yet?

I love the Gophers playing a slaughter schedule because maybe Gophers up their game and eat bigger game, already eating fine.
 


context - in case people haven't read the article. the author says up front that this was a general look at how the realignment impacts programs. he states that he did not consider coaching or rosters in this assessment. so it's all based on a historical perspective of the program.

a lot of it seems to come down to whether realignment gives a school a better or worse chance of making the expanded CFP Playoffs. he also puts a lot of weight on how schools are impacted by the end of Divisions, and mentions NIL as a factor. You will note that, of the B1G West schools, Nebraska got a 0 while the others all got negative scores. Please note who tied for the worst score........

To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

Here's the B1G rundown:
OSU +4
Michigan +3
Penn State +3
MSU +2
Oregon +2
Maryland +1
Rutgers +1
Nebraska 0
Wisconsin -1
Illinois -2
Indiana -2
USC -2
Washington -2
Minnesota -3
Northwestern -3
Purdue -3
Iowa -4
UCLA -4
 

Not surprised to see most of the former West teams on the negative side. They are the ones who were hurt most by the additions of the west coast teams and the elimination of divisions.

Especially Wisconsin (who I think should have a score like -4) and Iowa. They were the best programs in the old West division during it's 10 year existence and got to 4 B1G championship games largely due to playing in a weak division.

Now either of them will need many factors to align to make a championship game appearance.
 

Ski-U-Ham said:
Where have you seen 10 wins predicted (outside of Gopher Hole, that is!)? I'd love to see it happen, but if it does, I'm not sure who is going to be able to say they called it.
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Correct, the majority of predictions I have seen are predicting the Gophers to miss a bowl game...5 wins.
And I'm not saying we will win 10 games but myself and some others on Gopherhole feel like it is possible. I don't believe it happens if we lose game 1. 5 of the first 6 games are at home. Win those and we can dream...and I do believe they are winnable. Possibly favored in all 5 of the first 6 games at game time if we win week one. So, it's not really even unlikely if we are who I think we are.
 

B10 better form some kind of regional divisions again because no one is going to care about team #11 or lower. The old rules have to be brought back about transferring to end the chaos, and the NCAA has to go back into federal court to get a measure of sane governance back in its hands - all the way to SCOTUS, if it has to. In all likelihood, Nebraska is moving up and the Gophers are not in this new system.
 



I agree generally. The thing is, there are still only 9 games on a conference schedule in an 18-team league. Some years will be tougher than others.

This is a hugely subjective list, but my only real disagreement would be Michigan State. Both MSU and UM won't be up at the same time. Dantonio's MSU was good when UM was mediocre then that reversed once Harbaugh picked up steam.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I agree generally. The thing is, there are still only 9 games on a conference schedule in an 18-team league. Some years will be tougher than others.

This is a hugely subjective list, but my only real disagreement would be Michigan State. Both MSU and UM won't be up at the same time. Dantonio's MSU was good when UM was mediocre then that reversed once Harbaugh picked up steam.
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the author's point on MSU is that MSU - in his opinion - is no longer 'blocked' by being in the B1G East where it was behind OSU, Mich and PSU. so, in theory, if a MSU team managed to have a 10-2 season, it could qualify for the expanded CFP playoffs.

as I said, the author puts a lot of weight on the end of divisional play. as he sees it, teams in the old East division could wind up with easier schedules if they don't have to face OSU, Mich and PSU every year. conversely, teams in the old West division could wind up with harder schedules.

I'm not saying I buy his logic 100%, but his whole thing is whether the new setup makes it easier for teams to potentially make the CFP playoffs.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
the author's point on MSU is that MSU - in his opinion - is no longer 'blocked' by being in the B1G East where it was behind OSU, Mich and PSU. so, in theory, if a MSU team managed to have a 10-2 season, it could qualify for the expanded CFP playoffs.

as I said, the author puts a lot of weight on the end of divisional play. as he sees it, teams in the old East division could wind up with easier schedules if they don't have to face OSU, Mich and PSU every year. conversely, teams in the old West division could wind up with harder schedules.

I'm not saying I buy his logic 100%, but his whole thing is whether the new setup makes it easier for teams to potentially make the CFP playoffs.
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Teams in the East also used to get automatic wins vs Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland.
 

The elimination of the BG10 East positive impact is really just the elimination of playing Ohio State every single year and Michigan to a lesser extent. Michigan will still play OSU and MSU every year and effectively substitute Penn State for other teams (some of which might be better) but they also won't play the perennial dregs of the BG10 in Rutgers, Indiana and Maryland as often. If the goal is to make the 12-team playoff and not a championship, yeah, Michigan is better off, but so is every single team in the conference as it will be easier to be a top 12 team than a conference champ. The analysis seems inconsistent.
 



I don’t understand how realignment is helpful to any of these teams. Their chance to win a conference championship has been significantly reduced.

The expansion of the CFP definitely helps all teams. One step forward, two steps back.
 

4 teams are out west. Would need two more to create 3 Big Ten divisions.

Divisions don't mean what they used to. Poll rank is what people talk about, not if team won B1G West.
 

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