Which B1G team has the most favorable 1-plays?

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SelectionSunday

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Based on preseason expectations and 1-plays, which B1G team do you think has the most advantageous conference schedule for the 2012-13 season?

AND

Which one has the most difficult road to a B1G championship?

All CAPS = home game.

Team 1 (Indiana): @ Illinois, NEBRASKA, @ Northwestern, WISCONSIN

Team 2 (Michigan): IOWA, @ Minnesota, NEBRASKA, @ Wisconsin

Team 3 (Wisconsin): @ Indiana, MICHIGAN, @ Northwestern, PURDUE

Team 4 (Michigan State): ILLINOIS, @ Iowa, NORTHWESTERN, @ Penn State

Team 5 (Ohio State): IOWA, MINNESOTA, @ Penn State, @ Purdue

Team 6 (Minnesota): MICHIGAN, @ Ohio State, PENN STATE, @ Purdue

Team 7 (Iowa): ILLINOIS, @ Michigan, MICHIGAN STATE, @ Ohio State

Team 8 (Purdue): MINNESOTA, @ Nebraska, OHIO STATE, @ Wisconsin

Team 9 (Northwestern): INDIANA, @ Michigan State, @ Nebraska, WISCONSIN

Team 10 (Illinois): INDIANA, @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, PENN STATE

Team 11 (Penn State): @ Illinois, MICHIGAN STATE, @ Minnesota, OHIO STATE

Team 12 (Nebraska): @ Indiana, @ Michigan, NORTHWESTERN, PURDUE

I had the advantage of knowing the teams, but I'd go with #9 as the easiest schedule (play IU, Sparty & Bucky only once + no trip to Bloomington or Madison) and #4 as the toughest (all 4 1-plays are vs. teams generally projected to finish in the bottom half of the B1G).
 

Depends on how you define favorable.

Favorable because they don't play top tier teams? Favorable because they get extra chances to improve their seed?
 

Good question. ... in this instance "favorable" being the easiest path to a conference championship (fewer games vs. top-tier teams).
 

Home and road matters too, and I don't have an answer. Better to play the best teams on the road or at home. I used to think it was better to play the best of the best teams only at home. Now I wonder if it is better to play the worst at home and lock up a home win than lose a home game to a better team when it would have been a road loss anyway.
 



First thing to look at is the easiest overall road slate, so if you miss two tough road contests by playing those two only at home you have a much better chance of going 5-4 on the road.

For the better teams, winning at home is expected even against the top clubs and avoiding picking up a road loss is going to be the difference in positioning in the league.

Looking at the above, #9 & #11 miss out on two of the top contenders on the road.

Conversely, the easiest schedule should have all 3 of the "easy" road wins (PSU, NW, Neb) on the slate. That eliminates 1/2/4/6/10/12 from the easy along with any of those teams themselves (since they could only play at most 2 of the easy road games).

Toughest home slate appears to be #4.
 

The Teams

I listed them in my current predicted order of finish.

1 = Indiana
2 = Michigan
3 = Wisconsin
4 = Michigan State
5 = Ohio State
6 = Minnesota
7 = Iowa
8 = Purdue
9 = Northwestern
10 = Illinois
11 = Penn State
12 = Nebraska
 

dpodoll68 said:
Team 4, easily.
Click to expand...

You think playing ILLINOIS, @ Iowa, NORTHWESTERN, @ Penn State only once is the most favorable? I would say they would have one of the most difficult schedules. Maybe that's what you are looking for.
 

Gold Vision said:
You think playing ILLINOIS, @ Iowa, NORTHWESTERN, @ Penn State only once is the most favorable? I would say they would have one of the most difficult schedules. Maybe that's what you are looking for.
Click to expand...

They have the easiest 1 plays to beat, but I agree that this makes them the least favorable because these are the teams you'd want to face twice. The only thing missing is a switch of either Illinois or Northwestern for Nebraska.
 



Gold Vision said:
You think playing ILLINOIS, @ Iowa, NORTHWESTERN, @ Penn State only once is the most favorable? I would say they would have one of the most difficult schedules. Maybe that's what you are looking for.
Click to expand...

Looking back, I realize that I basically misunderstood the question. I thought the question was who has the easiest set of 1-play games. I still maintain that it's Michigan St. (#4), but you're right in that having the easiest set of 1-play games likely makes their 2-play games the most difficult.
 

I think Iowa or Northwestern have the most favorable. Especially since they are both likely to be fringe tournament teams looking for a nice total win number rather than a high seed.
 


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