Where do NFL 1st rounders come from?

[GophersInIowa]

Thought I would change it up a little in here. Decided to look at NFL 1st round draft picks and what kind of succes their college team had the year before.

2009
Of the 32 players drafted in the 1st round:
9 came from a college team that finished in the Top 10 of AP poll the year before
8 came from teams finishing 11-25
The remaining 15 from teams that finished unranked

2008
8 from Top 10 teams
8 from teams ranked 11-25
16 from teams unranked

2007
12 from top 10
9 from 11-25
11 from unranked

2006
11 from top 10
9 from 11-25
12 from unranked

Certainly, elite programs like USC and Florida are producing a good number of 1st round draft picks. But it looks like in recent years, an increasing number of 1st rounders have come from unranked teams.

In looking at OT (where Henderson plays), over that 4-year span, players at that position drafted in the 1st round have come from:
Alabama
Baylor
Boise St.
Boston College
Central Michigan
Michigan
Mississippi
Penn St.
Pittsburgh
USC
Vanderbilt
Virginia (2)
Virginia Tech

There are some good programs like USC, Alabama, and Penn St. in there but there are just as many average/below average programs like Baylor, Central Michigan, Mississippi, Vandy, and Virginia.

Draw your own conclusions from the info, I just thought it was interesting to look at.

 

[Gopher07]

However, think about this --

In 2009, 53% of first rounders came from 21% of teams
In 2008, 50% of first rounders came from 21% of teams
2007, 65% from those 21%
2006, 63% from 21%

So, top 25 teams perform well above the average when it comes to producing NFL talent. Like you said, it has slipped in the past two years, but it's still really high.

 

[ruralgopher]

Someone posted a link to a USA today interactive in the bt 5* thread that I spent some time looking at the other day. I don't remember the time frame of that interactive, but over that time Cal produced i think 10 1st round ot's and USC produced 9. obviously both are big time football but USC dominated over that stretch where Cal has been very pedestrian. I think lineman especially scouts will find anywhere because the body can change so much from the age of 17-18 to 22-23. a lot of tight-end type frames in HS can fill out to be very athletic lineman in college.

 

[GophersInIowa]

However, think about this --

In 2009, 53% of first rounders came from 21% of teams
In 2008, 50% of first rounders came from 21% of teams
2007, 65% from those 21%
2006, 63% from 21%

So, top 25 teams perform well above the average when it comes to producing NFL talent. Like you said, it has slipped in the past two years, but it's still really high.

Yeah but that percentage difference has a lot to do with the fact that very few 1st rounders come from non-BCS teams. Just looking at last years draft (don't have enough time now to look back at the last 4 years), 31 of the 32 1st rounders came from BCS schools. Of the 31, 17 of them came from schools that finished in the top 25. There are 65 BCS schools. That means that last year, 55% of the first rounders came from 38% of the BCS teams.

There's still a gap there but it's not as big as some may think. I don't know if this is a trend that will continue or not, may just be coincidence.

 

[Jeshurun]

Storks.