What Should I Expect This Season?

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SplitDecision

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Looking at the last Four Seasons statistically from Colorado St. under Niko Medved, and Minnesota coached by Ben Johnson, the sample size is big enough to build some expectations. Coaching styles differ, the level of competition is higher in the Big Ten, but statistical trends have developed under Medved and Johnson.

Each team took about 56 Field Goal Attempts/game, but Colo St. made 48.2% ranking them in the top 20.
Minnesota shot 44.6% over that time, ranking them outside the top 175 teams

Colo St. made 56.6% of 2pt FGA, ranking them in top 20 nationally, while MN made 50.6% and rank #197.

Colo St. had a 3P% of .356 placing them in the top 100 rank, while MN made .342 with ave. rank #171.

Colo St. averaged FT% .761 ranked 41st in college bb, MN FT% .673 at #291 ranking.

Offensive rebounding was never a concern/strength at Colo St. as they were never inside the top 326 teams, while MN was only slightly better at 254th ave rank.

Assist totals favored Colo St. as they averaged 16.3 asst/gm ranking them 34th in college bb over 4 yrs, while MN had respectable 15 assts/gm inside the top 100 teams.

Total Points/game had Colo St. consistently at 74pts/gm, while MN averaged 68 pts/gm.

Both teams averaged 11 TO/gm, and MN had one more block/gm than Colo St.

Looking at 4-year trends, I would expect MN to clearly shoot the ball better from all distances as well as FT%.
Clearly, the Gophers should score more points and should average into the 70's per game.
Over the four years evaluated, the talent level has been comparable with MN and Colo St. (Garcia/Battle/Payne/Willis/Christie/Hawkins vs Roddy/Tonje/Stevens/Evans/Clifford), so the results shouldn't be expected to vary tremendously. However, MN talent '25/'26 is expected to drop, but clearly not as much as Torvik suggests. Turner, Tyson have been added.

Arbitrary statistical expectations/hopes for MN '25/26 per game:
FG 26.6, FGA 56, FG% .475, 2P% .550 (35pts/gm via 2PFG), 3PA 24/gm, 3P% .361 (26pts/game via 3's), FTA 17, FT% .720 (12pt/gm via FT), ASST/gm 16.6, PTS/gm. 73, STL 5 , BLK 2.8, TOV 11.

Too lofty?
 


Putting numbers on it is probably pretty difficult? ... I think we know Niko will have a better, more efficient offensive team than Ben. But, the MW is not the gauntlet the Big Ten is. The league has different players than last year as do the Gophers. But we do know the points of emphasis for Niko. Flip side: How effective will the Big Ten defenses be taking away our strengths?

Any where higher than 10th in the standings will be a roaring success!
 

I like what Niko has put together. I think this is going to be the quickest group of guards we have had in a long time. Willis, Asuma, Reynolds and Stephens are all quick. I like our chances of finishing higher than 10th. Just a feeling.
 

I’d expect a team that tries hard but is not that talented. 6-8 B10 wins is my prediction
 





bga1 said:
I like what Niko has put together. I think this is going to be the quickest group of guards we have had in a long time. Willis, Asuma, Reynolds and Stephens are all quick. I like our chances of finishing higher than 10th. Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
I think we'll compete for certain but these teams are all in somebody's Top 25:
Purdue, Michigan, UCLA, USC, Michigan St, Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Ohio St, Indiana and Washington...count 'em up that is 12 teams with some Top 25 buzz because of their portal additions.
Minnesota is anonymous to anybody talking Top 25 or talking Big Ten teams to be on the lookout for. Anonymous, unmentioned.
So yes, we can do it....but the rich get richer and most all those teams attracted bigger name players on paper. It's going to be very tough to finish 10th or higher....possible? For sure! Also, nobody in the basketball world other than somebody on Gopherhole is picking us to do it....you and I are hopin' I believe.
Who of the 12 can anybody say..."Well, for sure we'll finish ahead of them?"
And Maryland probably makes 13 as an afterthought.
 
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bga1 said:
I like what Niko has put together. I think this is going to be the quickest group of guards we have had in a long time. Willis, Asuma, Reynolds and Stephens are all quick. I like our chances of finishing higher than 10th. Just a feeling.
Click to expand...
Every season there is a team that "surprises". Maybe its our turn. But I know that could be an uphill battle as many teams seem to have more talent. But..........
 

60's Guy said:
I think we'll compete for certain but these teams are all in somebody's Top 25:
Purdue, Michigan, UCLA, USC, Michigan St, Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Ohio St, Indiana and Washington...count 'em up that is 12 teams with some Top 25 buzz because of their portal additions.
Minnesota is anonymous to anybody talking Top 25 or talking Big Ten teams to be on the lookout for. Anonymous, unmentioned.
So yes, we can do it....but the rich get richer and most all those teams attracted bigger name players on paper. It's going to be very tough to finish 10th or higher....possible? For sure! Also, nobody in the basketball world other than somebody on Gopherhole is picking us to do it....you and I are hopin' I believe.
Who of the 12 can anybody say..."Well, for sure we'll finish ahead of them?"
Click to expand...
I agree it always looks not very good on paper, but who knows. Didnt think we would sweep Los Angeles and beat Oregon last year and then lose some games at home against crap teams. Cant predict anything now. Injuries can be factor too. Gonna have to play well obviously!
 


60's Guy said:
Who of the 12 can anybody say..."Well, for sure we'll finish ahead of them?"
Click to expand...
Three of those 12 - USC, Indiana, and Iowa have nearly completely new rosters so I really don't know how anyone can say with any certainty what they will do.

The roster churn in college basketball is so extreme that trying to pin down how any team is going to do before the remade rosters take the court is a fools errand. Purdue is probably the only truly safe bet because unlike most of the rest of the conference they managed to keep their roster mostly in tact.
 




Maybe it's a little unfair, but every year I'm just thinking get to the NCAA tournament.

In reality, NIT is probably OK and I'd feel alright.
 

To me the biggest change from the last 12 years that you/I should expect is a system/structure. Pitino and CBJ IMHO didn't have great sets on offense, it was the nba model, hey we have a star, give him the ball and just let him go. CSU was 13th in assists per possession last year and 5th the year before (to be fair the gophers were 6th 2 years ago, im baffled as to how ha). Along with that, better shooting from top to bottom, 3pt, FT etc.

There is no doubt some teams have more physical talent aka $$$, but I think we will be competitive throughout the year and a team that will at least be tough to play against and a but more consistent.
 

With a proven and seasoned HC on board we no longer can play the CBJ card. That "should" result in more BT wins. Enuf to get a NCAA bid? Probably not but a legitimate NIT spot is my expectation.
 

Over the last four seasons, here are the average KenPom ratings:

Team​
ORtg​
DRtg​
Minnesota​
108.4​
103.1​
Colorado State​
113.9​
100.2​

These are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for quality of opponent. So the difficulty of the B1G is baked into the metrics. Medved runs an offense focused on getting quality shots and values shooting on his roster, but the team generally neglects offensive rebounding in favor of getting back on defense.

One thing that jumped out at me looking at the ORtg numbers from recent seasons: Medved's average team over the last four seasons performed slightly better than the 2023-2024 Gopher team that was CBJ's best unit. On the defensive side, CSU had an awful season defensively in '22-'23 (106.1 DRtg) and the four year average is still better than any single Gopher season under CBJ.
 

skiumah1 said:
Maybe it's a little unfair, but every year I'm just thinking get to the NCAA tournament.

In reality, NIT is probably OK and I'd feel alright.
Click to expand...
NCAA tournament should always be the goal just shouldn't be the expectation in year one.

I'm hopeful that Niko can have the team in the middle of the pack and playing competitive basketball most nights. He has assembled a roster where most of the players on it can come back next year as well so hopefully we see some positive signs this year and he is able to keep the roster mostly in tact to build on that the following year.
 

leib0039 said:
To me the biggest change from the last 12 years that you/I should expect is a system/structure. Pitino and CBJ IMHO didn't have great sets on offense, it was the nba model, hey we have a star, give him the ball and just let him go. CSU was 13th in assists per possession last year and 5th the year before (to be fair the gophers were 6th 2 years ago, im baffled as to how ha). Along with that, better shooting from top to bottom, 3pt, FT etc.

There is no doubt some teams have more physical talent aka $$$, but I think we will be competitive throughout the year and a team that will at least be tough to play against and a but more consistent.
Click to expand...
assist per possession:to be fair the gophers were 6th 2 years ago, im baffled as to how ha

Elijah Hawkins with 7.5 assists per game was the reason, so quick and not the best finisher, he gave up scoring stats to get easy buckets for teammates.

Willis could be as quick and a legit 6-2. It will be interesting to see a backcourt of Willis and Asuma. I am thinking Willis is the scoring Pg mostly. Asuma the better shooter, off the ball and as the backup PG. Also, Willis averaged 1.8 steals last year. Both could be above average defenders, if they buy in.
 

skiumah1 said:
Maybe it's a little unfair, but every year I'm just thinking get to the NCAA tournament.

In reality, NIT is probably OK and I'd feel alright.
Click to expand...

Assuming the College Basketball Crown continues next year, Big Ten teams are required to play there if the CBC invites them and they aren't selected to play in the NCAA tournament. No Big Ten teams were in the NIT in 2025. Conference teams can decline to play in both the NIT and CBC but they can't decline a CBC bid to play in the NIT.
 


I tried to look up the ratio of close 2s/far 2s/3s (both offense and defense) for CSU vs. MN, but it's more work than I have time for today. This would give you a clue about both offense and defensive style, as well as whether analytics is understood and incorporated. The simplistic idea is to limit the far 2s on offense and concede them on defense.

CSU was good at this on defense, but average to slightly above on offense in '25. MN was actually ok defensively, too (mostly by being good at limiting 3FGAs), but offensively, the ratio of close 2 to far 2 was inferior, and they took less 3s, too.

Based on just last year's data, what I take from this is a) Medved does incorporate analytics better than his predecessor, and b) the offense should be better while the defense might be similarly effective.
 

formerlybis said:
I tried to look up the ratio of close 2s/far 2s/3s (both offense and defense) for CSU vs. MN, but it's more work than I have time for today. This would give you a clue about both offense and defensive style, as well as whether analytics is understood and incorporated. The simplistic idea is to limit the far 2s on offense and concede them on defense.

CSU was good at this on defense, but average to slightly above on offense in '25. MN was actually ok defensively, too (mostly by being good at limiting 3FGAs), but offensively, the ratio of close 2 to far 2 was inferior, and they took less 3s, too.

Based on just last year's data, what I take from this is a) Medved does incorporate analytics better than his predecessor, and b) the offense should be better while the defense might be similarly effective.
Click to expand...
I would assume that a coach might modify what he allows from year to year depending on the players he has. To take an extreme situation, in the pros SGA just thrives on the mid range- so while a coach might not generally want that shot- they do with him. I assume that Clifford, for example, was green lighted to take a mid range if he could get it.

CSU was terrific on their 2 point shots at nearly 57% compared to the Gophers' 50.7%.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Assuming the College Basketball Crown continues next year, Big Ten teams are required to play there if the CBC invites them and they aren't selected to play in the NCAA tournament. No Big Ten teams were in the NIT in 2025. Conference teams can decline to play in both the NIT and CBC but they can't decline a CBC bid to play in the NIT.
Click to expand...
Ah interesting. Didn't know that was a thing.
 

MNVCGUY said:
NCAA tournament should always be the goal just shouldn't be the expectation in year one.

I'm hopeful that Niko can have the team in the middle of the pack and playing competitive basketball most nights. He has assembled a roster where most of the players on it can come back next year as well so hopefully we see some positive signs this year and he is able to keep the roster mostly in tact to build on that the following year.
Click to expand...
I would be very happy if Niko can finish in the top 12 of the B1G, which I think would be a good first year goal to have. And I would be ecstatic if they went 10-10, which last year was good enough for 9th (Indiana).
 



bga1 said:
I would assume that a coach might modify what he allows from year to year depending on the players he has. To take an extreme situation, in the pros SGA just thrives on the mid range- so while a coach might not generally want that shot- they do with him. I assume that Clifford, for example, was green lighted to take a mid range if he could get it.

CSU was terrific on their 2 point shots at nearly 57% compared to the Gophers' 50.7%.
Click to expand...
Personnel does matter, but even the best college basketball mid-rangers still shoot those at a lower make percentage than the average for close 2s. Purdue was high-volume mid-range and had some of the best make percentages, but TKR and Loyer were still only around 50% (Braden Smith was much worse if you're wondering - less than 40%) on those compared to the team average of 68% on close twos. If you look at it in points per FGA, that's 1.36 close to the rim, and 1.0 - for the very best players - for mid-range. Purdue overall averaged 44.6% (0.89 points per attempt) for midranges, which ranks very high nationally.

CSU was much better at close 2s than MN (67% vs 59%), and pretty similar at midranges (42% vs 39%). Except for unique talents that pretty much do not exist in college, you don't want to take an abundance of midranges.
 

I’m expecting this season to be a work in progress. I had higher hopes before we didn’t get as many transfers with experience in his system. Historically speaking it sounds like it takes a year for Niko to get up and running. Always hoping for the best!
 

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