What is a 'must win' at this point?

[howeda7]

Most seem to agree that 11-7 in the regular season should get us in the NCAA's. There was some debate in the chatroom over whether the OSU game today was a 'must win'. Some thought it was, I disagree. To be the schedule breaks down as follows:

Home Games: (need to go 7-2)

Must Wins:

PSU
Iowa
Indiana

Should Win:

OSU
Michigan
Northwestern

Need to win at least 1: (2 if one of the above is lost)

MSU
Wisconsin
Purdue

Road Games: (Need to go 4-5)

Need to win 4 of these 5: (No single road game is 'must-win' but Iowa and Indiana are close)

Iowa
Indiana
PSU
Michigan
Northwestern

Nice if you can get one:

MSU
Purdue
Illinois
OSU

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

Most seem to agree that 11-7 in the regular season should get us in the NCAA's. There was some debate in the chatroom over whether the OSU game today was a 'must win'. Some thought it was, I disagree. To be the schedule breaks down as follows:

Home Games: (need to go 7-2)

Must Wins:

PSU
Iowa
Indiana

Should Win:

OSU
Michigan
Northwestern

Need to win at least 1: (2 if one of the above is lost)

MSU
Wisconsin
Purdue

Road Games: (Need to go 4-5)

Need to win 4 of these 5: (No single road game is 'must-win' but Iowa and Indiana are close)

Iowa
Indiana
PSU
Michigan
Northwestern

Nice if you can get one:

MSU
Purdue
Illinois
OSU

Good analysis. I think Gophers need/should W 7 or 8 at home and 4 or 5 away for 11 to 13 W in B10. I don't think 20 W (alone) will earn NCAA bid.

 

[howeda7]

Good analysis. I think Gophers need/should W 7 or 8 at home and 4 or 5 away for 11 to 13 W in B10. I don't think 20 W (alone) will earn NCAA bid.

From prior threads, I know you disagree on 11-7 being the magic #. 11-7 is probably going to slot us into the 4 or 5 slot in the BTT though. And I don't see the Selection Committee punishing us for losing the 4/5 game to OSU or whoever it might be. Our non-conference didn't help us, but it didn't do terrible damage. It basically left us a blank slate. An 11-7 (or 10-6) Big 10 team has never been left out, and I don't think it would happen this year, unless it's Michigan.

The only scenerio where I agree it wouldn't be enough is if we were somehow 11-7 and the #6 seed in the BTT. In that case a loss to Iowa would be devastating. But a win there should not somehow make us look better then if we'd simply been the #5 seed and gotten a bye.

 

[camken78]

I figured it would be in our best interest to be no worse than 6-3 in the conference going into February(2 losses to mich st and the 1 to purdue).Anything better than that is a bonus.