To me, We will be favored on point spreads in all of our OOC (not saying we are the better team, will win, etc. but we will be the Vegas favorite)
In conference, we will be favored vs Purdue, vs Northwestern, @ Illinois,
We will be underdogs @ Mich, vs Iowa (though this one may be a push, will largely depend on how the year plays out), vs OSU, @ Neb (although could be a push), and @ Wisc.
Reasons why we will be favorites.
We are currently projected higher than our OOC opponents. TCU is the only "test" in the eyes of the college FB world right now and is coming off a rough season. Most pundits expect them to be weak on offense to start the season as they try find their QB. Thus, given our returning talent, we will be projected to win despite this being on the road. If we were playing late in the season, I would guess that TCU is the favorite. Remember we're just looking at being favored, not the better team.
We will be favored vs Northwestern by virtue of having the game at home, NW likely will be coming off two losses @ PSU and vs Wisc and could easily have another loss OOC. We will be coming off a bye and hopefully be at least 4-1. Odds will be pushed towards us.
We will be favored vs. Purdue by virtue of home game, we should have a better record, we will appear to be the better team at that time.
We will be favored at Illinois based upon record differential (hopefully) at this time. We should be sitting at 5-2 or better hopefully with Illinois looking at a 4-3 or so record with wins against no-names almost entirely. There's really no reason, unless we play much poorly and lose some games I think we should win, that Vegas should favor Illinois in this one.
Why we're dogs
@ Michigan. Has been a house of horrors at times. It's our first conference game. It's us vs a helmet school. Michigan could have some real legit wins if it beats both ND and Utah which will definitely make them the favorite.
vs Iowa. This one is solely on who we've played to this point. Iowa should have much more highly touted wins (comparatively) if everything goes to plan. They could very likely be undefeated at this time with how their schedule sets up and the points will swing towards them even if we only have 1 loss at this time. Conceivably we could both be in the top 25 if things go well which could make this a pretty enticing late season game.
Vs OSU. OSU is odds on pegged to be at either undefeated or with one loss at this point, with the loss to MSU. I don't really see any way we're favored in this one in Vegas. Just too many factors playing against us. Now if we're undefeated and they have a loss to MSU, we're looking at a different story. I just don't see that being the case.
@ Neb. I think this one could easily see us being favored and am tending to put it in push category, but I'll put it here for now off the virtue of us likely having 2+ losses at this point and this being a tough place to play. Neb could definitely have 3 losses at this point, but that won't be enough to swing the discussion in our favor.
@ Wisc. Until we beat them, I don't think you'll be seeing us favored. Especially in Camp Randall.
Overall: Favored in all our OOC, vs. Purdue, NW, and @ Ill. Dogs for sure @ Mich, vs OSU, @ Wisc. Pushes but I'm leaning towards dogs for now vs Iowa and @ Neb.
