What do you think the line will be vs Iowa?

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With Iowa looking as good as they did today, I am guessing the Hawkeyes open up as 4.5 point favorites.
 

Iowa will open 3 point favorites.


Go Gophers!!
 

I'll say it opens Iowa by 5.5 and moves up slightly throughout the week
 







I don't know how much TCF stadium is worth, but on a neutral field I would think the line would be 7.5-8.5
 



Iowa -14


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Per Vegas insider, line opens Minnesota -1
 

Some guy said:
I don't know how much TCF stadium is worth, but on a neutral field I would think the line would be 7.5-8.5
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That would be my thought as well. Home field is usually worth 3.0 - 3.5, so my guess is regardless of what it is when betting opens, it's probably going to end up around Iowa -5.0.
 




I am very surprised by that line.

I guess if you look at entire resumes it should be an even game.



Maybe everyone is too focused on the last game myself included.
 

So Vegas is much less down on the Gophers than the collective wisdom of Gopherhole.

What a surprise. ;)
 

MrC said:
So Vegas is much less down on the Gophers than the collective wisdom of Gopherhole.

What a surprise. ;)
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Don't really get the people who were predicting the line would heavily favor Iowa. I figured it would be a point or two either way since the teams have identical records, and outside of the game Iowa just played neither team has looked all that impressive this year. With it being at TCF this would have the look of a tossup game from a gambling standpoint without a clear cut favorite.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Don't really get the people who were predicting the line would heavily favor Iowa. I figured it would be a point or two either way since the teams have identical records, and outside of the game Iowa just played neither team has looked all that impressive this year. With it being at TCF this would have the look of a tossup game from a gambling standpoint without a clear cut favorite.
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This post might have been more impressive had it not been done after the line was posted.
 

Spoofin said:
This post might have been more impressive had it not been done after the line was posted.
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True but it still doesn't change the fact that common sense would have pointed towards a small line with the only thing potentially skewing things would be a knee jerk reaction to Iowa's win over Northwestern yesterday. I will say that if the game was in Kinnick I would have expected Iowa to open as nearly a 7 point favorite.
 

MrC said:
So Vegas is much less down on the Gophers than the collective wisdom of Gopherhole.

What a surprise. ;)
Click to expand...

Whoa. The collective wisdom of GopherHole is 0.
 

I seriously figured Iowa would probably be double digit favorites. My gambling past and knowledge that Vegas usually knows best has me a little more optimistic about the outcome but I can't really see a way the Gophers keep it close unless our last two games were an aberration.
 

BleedGopher said:
Looks like the line already moved to Minnesota +1.

Go Gophers!!
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That's about what I would expect - an opening of +1 to reflect about a 4 or 5 point rating differential but reduced by a 3 to 4 point home advantage.

My guess is that it moves to somewhere between +3 to +6 by game day.
 


GopherHomer said:
I seriously figured Iowa would probably be double digit favorites. My gambling past and knowledge that Vegas usually knows best has me a little more optimistic about the outcome but I can't really see a way the Gophers keep it close unless our last two games were an aberration.
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Vegas is all about getting action on games and getting people to bet with their hearts and not their heads. The house always wins and it usually wins because the collective wisdom of bettors is usually off the mark. My guess is Iowa's win on Saturday has moved money toward them, but the house usually likes home dogs when it comes to making money.

It's hard to say this week. I think Iowa is very physical (they always are), but they aren't that challenging in terms of speed on offense. If we can match them up front, I think this is going to be a great game.
 



MrC said:
So Vegas is much less down on the Gophers than the collective wisdom of Gopherhole.

What a surprise. ;)
Click to expand...
I think it is probably more people being up on Iowa due to last week. Both teams are probably pretty mediocre...but Iowa looked really good last Saturday.
 

As noted - point spreads are created to generate action by the gamblers - not to indicate the relative strength of the two teams. The sports books will manipulate the point spread in order to encourage more betting.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
As noted - point spreads are created to generate action by the gamblers - not to indicate the relative strength of the two teams. The sports books will manipulate the point spread in order to encourage more betting.
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It's a toss up, pick em game. It's going to be great!!!
 

short ornery norwegian said:
As noted - point spreads are created to generate action by the gamblers - not to indicate the relative strength of the two teams. The sports books will manipulate the point spread in order to encourage more betting.
Click to expand...

Very true but they also tend to be fairly accurate in terms of predicting the type of game that will be played. Don't have any data to back this up but it would sure seem like games with a small point spread typically end up being reasonably close overall.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Very true but they also tend to be fairly accurate in terms of predicting the type of game that will be played. Don't have any data to back this up but it would sure seem like games with a small point spread typically end up being reasonably close overall.
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Iowa was a 3.5 point favorite over Northwestern last week.
The over-under was 36.5

Iowa won by more than the over/under. :cool:
 

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