What do we expect out of this team?

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bleedsmaroonandgold

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It seems like after two meaningless exhibition games, there are a lot of people upset (even though we won both of the throwaway games). There are also a lot of people upset at the people who are upset. I feel like both extremes are well represented on the boards, with some people saying that close exhibition wins against D2 schools means that Tubby is a terrible coach, and other people who think that Tubby can do no wrong and last season's struggles were totally out of control. Like most things, I think the truth lies in the middle. I believe Tubby is a good coach, and I think that Gopher Basketball will get better and more exciting to watch over the next couple of years, but I am also concerned with how last season went. I did not like that we lacked the personnel to insulate us from Nolen's injury, and I disagreed with the decision to move Hoffarber to point guard (I felt like he was a marginally better point guard than Maverick, and certainly not enough better than Maverick justify letting one injury cost us our top PG and SG). Having said that, I would like people's thoughts on high and low water marks. For Tubby criticizers, how far would this team have to go for you to say "that was a good season, I am happy with what Tubby did"? For Tubby lovers, at what point will you say "all right, this is not acceptable, we expect better"? For me, if we miss the tournament, I am going to be very upset and will be starting to doubt Tubby. If we go to at least the second round, I will definitely feel like we are turning a corner and be very happy with Tubby's work. I will still be annoyed if we are one and done, we have spent too many years rebuilding just to establish that we are between the 33rd and 64th best team in the country. However, I will acknowledge that it is an improvement from the year prior.

Go Gophs!
 

It will be tough to justify the season if we don’t make the Tourney. Period. However, if some of the guards on the roster develop to be well rounded legit ones, the season will not have been completely lost.

Also, I believe getting/developing the core players will prove to be critical in determining our future collaboration with Tubby no matter what people say. Tubby at least must show that we have some good players to build a top 25 program with in future.

I will stay positive (and supportive of Tubby) during the season. But, if we don’t make the Tourney AND do not have the core players to build a future with (we will be on a serious down-swing), I think we will have to consider the possibility of dissolving the partnership.
 

going into year 5 with Tubby myself and I assume the majority of others thought the program would be farther along that it is.

some of this has been out of Tubby's control but some of the recruiting decisions have been curious.

to me this appears to be a team that will be competitive but more than likely NIT bound. when Tubby was hired if someone had said in year 5 the NIT was where the team would be at this point I would have to consider that a disappointment.
 

Hard to tell.

I think the Gophers could be a very strong team top 6 in the Big Ten but it will all come down to the guard play. This team needs the guards to play well and that isnt a given. Its hard to rely on point guards when you have a JUCO transfer and True Freshman getting most of the minutes. Tubby's offensive system is also not very good which makes it harder on younger players.
 

The reasonable expectation at this point should be that the team makes the tourney. In my mind the way the NCAA tournament is set up, a program such as ours , paying for a top flight coach should at least be in the tournament 60% of the time. We should also finish in the top 3 in the conference once every 5 years.

That's the reasonable expectation in my view- but I have no idea whether or not this squad can do it. It seems that there is enough raw talent to make the tournament and it depends on whether or not the coach can mold a winning squad from it. If you look at how this squad is built we really, really need for Andre Hollins to be the real deal- a guy who can be looked at for all Big Ten in a few years and a player that can do a credible job of running the team this year.

I've not spoken to one person, ever, who thinks Tubby has a good offensive scheme so the hope is that it gets done with defense, effort and a lot of points off turnovers. I think this willbe a better shooting team than last year- taking Tubby's word for it.
 


I expect to make the tourney and have a shot at a win or two. However, I will not be upset by early season slips as this team should be the opposite of last year. I think we will struggle early and finish strong as our backcourt is brand spanking new...its not realistic to expect everything to be humming after a game or two. That said, no reason we shouldn't be be good by end of year.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
It seems like after two meaningless exhibition games, there are a lot of people upset (even though we won both of the throwaway games). There are also a lot of people upset at the people who are upset. I feel like both extremes are well represented on the boards, with some people saying that close exhibition wins against D2 schools means that Tubby is a terrible coach, and other people who think that Tubby can do no wrong and last season's struggles were totally out of control. Like most things, I think the truth lies in the middle. I believe Tubby is a good coach, and I think that Gopher Basketball will get better and more exciting to watch over the next couple of years, but I am also concerned with how last season went. I did not like that we lacked the personnel to insulate us from Nolen's injury, and I disagreed with the decision to move Hoffarber to point guard (I felt like he was a marginally better point guard than Maverick, and certainly not enough better than Maverick justify letting one injury cost us our top PG and SG). Having said that, I would like people's thoughts on high and low water marks. For Tubby criticizers, how far would this team have to go for you to say "that was a good season, I am happy with what Tubby did"? For Tubby lovers, at what point will you say "all right, this is not acceptable, we expect better"? For me, if we miss the tournament, I am going to be very upset and will be starting to doubt Tubby. If we go to at least the second round, I will definitely feel like we are turning a corner and be very happy with Tubby's work. I will still be annoyed if we are one and done, we have spent too many years rebuilding just to establish that we are between the 33rd and 64th best team in the country. However, I will acknowledge that it is an improvement from the year prior.

Go Gophs!
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I watched the Arizona's game last night. If the 16th team in the country plays like that all season, we will have a great chance of going to sweet 16 this year.

Go Gophers
 

Trying not to take sides

I have been a Tubby apologist in some ways. In years 2 and 3 when there were legal issues and injuries with players that were out of Tubby's control, some hard times were expected. My expectations were met in those years once I adjusted for the personnel challenges.

However, going 1 for 11 in any stretch of games is NOT acceptable. That was the first time in those 4 years that I actually thought Tubby and co might be part of the problem; that a change would be necessary, like a new assistant. Even without Nolen and Joseph, that team coulda' woulda' shoulda'...losing to Northwestern again and again.

That said, our expectations might be better measured by evaluating the current roster. Seeing who we will have available I try and imagine the worst case and best case scenario.

Best: Welch is a legit starting point guard. Austin, Williams, and Sampson fulfill their destinies and all average 9+ ppg with 40%+ shooting. Dre, Coleman, Armelin, Ingram, and Elliason all contribute and settle into clear roles. Beat Michigan State at least once during the regular season: 25-5 regular season, 2 NCAA wins.

Worst: Welch's injury lingers, Dre starts and has freshman hands; with Mav, team has poor a/t ratio again this year. Sampson and Williams take off too many plays and are a liability on both ends of the floor. Austin can't hit a shot. Armelin, Coleman and Oto aren't hitting any better. Ingram and Elliason get pushed out the block in B1G play leaving Mbakwe to play 37 minutes a game. He gets frustrated and team chemistry falters. Other injuries or defections arise: 17-13 (same as last year) regular season, no wins against Michigan State, Wisky, Ohio State, Purdue or Michigan. NIT?

I'll say one thing about the Augastana game. The box score is misleading. Sampson had a bad game but had many good plays and I don't think he is going backward in production, he'll have a good (not great) SR year. Williams was agressive and his 10 points weren't just from uncontested dunks. Ingram is pretty good, I like his game, he can defend. Elliason can rebound. Armelin can hit shots under pressure. Austin is a good defender and clear starter. The whole starting crew had a lot of deflections against a very intense Vikings team. Whole team appears to moving faster than last year, it may not result in more possesions but movement is better. I think many non con games will go the same way. The opponent will have a player get hot from 3 and take the lead into half but it will be only a matter of time before Mbakwe and supporting cast will wear them down and get many more FTs than them.
 

I preface (my expectations) by saying this:

We're not where I expected to be (in search of its first NCAA win & no above-.500 finishes in a B1G regular season) heading into Year 5. The program exceeded my expectations in Years 1 and 2, then fell below them in Years 3 & 4. I think Tubby would say the same?

My general expectations for this Gopher team, specifically, one with a stud All-American type forward, yet with a lot of new faces and major question marks at the guard positions?

(A) I expect Year 5 to be more like Years 1 and 2. I expect to be feeling good about this program after the season is over.

(B) No worse than 11-2 during the nonconference slate, but 12-1 is the expectation. Though loaded with NC home games, odds are the Gophers are going to stub their toe somewhere in November/December.

(C) All things considered -- (1) what looks like a down B1G, (2) don't have to play OSU or Purdue on the road, (3) 19 of 31 games at home -- what I'm thinkin' is above .500 in the B1G at 10-8 or 11-7, with the ceiling at 12-6.

(D) I expect to win at least 1 NCAA Tournament game, 2nd round preferred, but even if it's the First Four I'll take it in a heartbeat. It's been too long since we've experienced the feeling of the Gophers being part of the tournament for more than 2 hours.

What all that adds up to? About 23 or 24 wins, one way or another.
 



I think they will be a solid bubble team as far as conference play is concerned, the next 3 weeks could very well deterimine whether they get into the NCAA or not.
 

I think I'm happy our non-conference schedule is stocked with home games, so the new guys can work their kinks out hopefully while still getting wins. Working in like 7 new players isn't easy. My expectation is NCAA tourney, anything below that has to be a disappointment, there's no other way to look at it IMO. Last year, my expectations were to not be on the bubble, but now, the bubble sounds okay for the time being.

If our young guards can emerge and be productive, and maybe we barely make it in or just miss out, I'll still be optimistic going forward, as guard play can take you places in college basketball. If we have a good year, but it's basically Trevor beasting all over guys, doing 23 and 10 a game and we still only sneak in or something, that will be concerning since he won't be here after the year is up.
 

The Sports Book at the Vandelay Hotel & Casino in Vegas has the over/under on regular season wins 17.5 and conference wins at 7.5.

The squad will be sweating it out again on Selection Sunday for an NIT bid.
 

I'd certainly take the over on regular-season wins, simply because of all the home games. I like the over on B1G wins, also, but not quite as much as the regular-season wins. Can't be sure at all how a team with so many newcomers will perform on the road.
 




Non-conference grades:

A: 12-0
B: 11-1
C: 10-2
D: 9-3
F: Anything less than 9 wins

Conference Grades:

A: 11-7 or better
B: 10-8
C: 9-9 or 8-10
D: 7-11
F: 6 wins or less
 

We have 13 nonconference games. ... but I think your conference grading scale looks pretty much dead on! I might even go as far to say 7-11 joins the F curve, with 8-10 as a C-/D+.
 


HOOP DREAMS said:
Based on an exhibition game that he played very limited minutes?
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Dreams- I am guessing that he meant- under defensive pressure. Armelin is one of the few on the team who has shown the propensity to be able to create his own shot. Rarely has Tubby installed him under pressure except for a Big Ten game late last year that Armelin nearly hleped pull out with some lat escoring.
 

As much as I want to believe (and I'm notoriously overly optimistic), this could be a more frustrating season than most think.

Shooting is still a major issue.

As much as most want to believe that play from the PG position last year was the primary factor for sliding down the stretch, the shooting was more of an issue. Guard play certainly played a role, but the fact that Ralph may have very well been the second best/most consistent shooter from outside of 6 feet was a MAJOR problem. Losing Devoe hurt tremendously not as much because he could have filled the void created when Nolen went down, but MORESO because he was the only player they had that could create his own shot and consistently hit a mid-range jumper.

If some of the youngsters can step up on the area of shooting (Andre, Austin H, Welch, Oto, Chip, or whoever), they could have a really nice season. The potential is there if they can get some consistent perimeter shooting to keep defenses honest.

But if the Gophers continue to see all 5 opposing defenders sagging 3-4 feet INSIDE the 3-pt line all season, it could be a really frustrating season.
 

An NCAA win or bust. It's time for Tubby to show that he is the right man for the job. His team under performed last year, and it's time for this year's squad to over perform!
 

Maroon colored glasses foggin' up

I don't see how we make the tournament. Optimistically we are on the bubble come selection time...all the home games against lousy teams will hurt more than it helps.

How can we be better next year? Clearly our two best players will be gone.
There isn't an all Big Ten performer in the making to lead us in the future is there? We got two marginal recruits coming. We have a collection of role players.

If we could play just incredible, unbelievable defense...that's only chance I see to surprise people. Mo being able to play would also make a difference this year.
 

Not to be a downer, but I would be shocked if we made the tourney. The team is just too young. One star player isn't enough. I see it getting worse next year if Walker doesn't come back strong. I hope I'm wrong.
 

I think this year will be NIT all the way with 15 to 18 wins. Next season...yikes. I think all Gopher fans, even the most alcoholic maroon kool aid drinkers, know next year could be brutal. I dont think the program will be down for long though. Look at Iowa, they have one of the premier recruiting classes coming in next season and they have been very poor recently. Same with Indiana. With the right coach and dedication from the administration, this ship can easily be spun in the right direction in a very short time.
 

the whole realm of expectations are up to Tubby and the Team... All of our "expectations" are hopes and bull$hit.
 

You simply cannot win at a high level in college basketball without excellent guard play. It derailed our season last when we lost Nolen and Cheech and it will hinder this squad again this year. If we can play .500 ball in the Big 10 I will be happy but not satisfied if that makes any sense.
 

Here is how you assess the talent and prospects for this team. Take the projected starting lineup for Gophers and match it up with the other teams in the B1G.

Mbakwe starts for everyone. Hardly anyone else on the MN roster starts for any other team at any position. Try it.

Tubby does not develop players well, and he does not run an effective offense that draws top recruits into his system. What top offensive basketball recruit wants to play in Tubby's system? It is called over-coaching and uber-controlling.

Tubby will not change. This is not Kentucky, so recruiting his more difficult. Going to be a long season my friends.
 

Honyocker said:
Here is how you assess the talent and prospects for this team. Take the projected starting lineup for Gophers and match it up with the other teams in the B1G.

Mbakwe starts for everyone. Hardly anyone else on the MN roster starts for any other team at any position. Try it.

Tubby does not develop players well, and he does not run an effective offense that draws top recruits into his system. What top offensive basketball recruit wants to play in Tubby's system? It is called over-coaching and uber-controlling.

Tubby will not change. This is not Kentucky, so recruiting his more difficult. Going to be a long season my friends.
Click to expand...

You may be overestimating the other Big Ten rosters. Sampson would start for a number of them as would Hollins and Williams. Too early to tell on the younger guys.

Certainly there are concerns. Let's see what this team can do. What did you think would happen the year we started the year with Greer, Hagen, Lawson, Robinson and Stamper? After one game you might have said there were zero players that would start for another Big Ten team. Were you thinking NCAAs? I wasn't.

Shooting is the big obvious issue. If it turns out that Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins and Welch shoot a decent three point percentage- we will have a good year.
 

Ralph would start for every team in the Big Ten, though not necessarily at center.
 


Michigan State started Payne last night who managed to stay on the floor a whopping 11 minutes. OSU doesn't start anyone taller than 6'7'' besides Sullinger. Ralph would start for both.
 

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