It's looking more and more possible that only four Big Ten teams will play in the NCAA tournament, unless someone other than Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue or Wisconsin wins the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis. Illinois really needs to win a couple of games -- and beat somebody of importance -- to move itself back to the right side of the bubble. The Illini lost for the fifth time in six games on Sunday, not the kind of impression you want to leave with the NCAA selection committee.
Illinois [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 73, SOS: 49] Illinois' late-season collapse is complete after it lost to Wisconsin 72-57 at home on Sunday, its fifth defeat in six games. The Illini are 4-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 5-11 against the top 100. Illinois' high-end victories over Vanderbilt (home), Wisconsin (road), Michigan State (home) and Clemson (road) and its 6-4 record in true road games might help its chances. But the NCAA selection committee might not like the fact that 13 of its 18 victories came against teams which are ranked No. 115 or worse in the RPI ratings. The Illini are the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis and will play No. 4 seed Wisconsin on Friday. They need that one.
Minnesota [18-12 (9-9), RPI: 75, SOS: 39] The Gophers are probably a fringe bubble candidate at best, but they're back on the board after routing Iowa 88-53 on Sunday to finish 9-9 in Big Ten play. Frankly, the Gophers have as much of an argument as Illinois to be included in the NCAA field. The Gophers are 4-4 in their last eight games, including a 62-60 victory at Illinois on Feb. 27. The Gophers have three high-end victories, having beaten Wisconsin (home), Butler (neutral) and Ohio State (home). Minnesota is 3-6 against RPI top-50 foes, 4-7 against the top 100 and 3-7 in true road games. The Gophers have five losses to RPI sub-100 opponents, including an ugly 83-55 defeat at Michigan on Tuesday night. The Gophers are the No. 6 seed in the Big Ten tourney and play No. 11 seed Indiana on Wednesday.
I agree with you and so does ESPN Bubble Watch.