Wednesday At-Large Update (down to 10 available bids)

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SelectionSunday

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As of Wednesday morning, we're down to 22 teams battling for the final 10 at-large bids. Cleveland State shrinks the bubble with a gutty win over Butler.

On tap for today. ...

(1) In Oklahoma City. ... Oklahoma State is pretty safe anyways because of its strong finish, but I'll lock up a bid for the Cowboys if they get by Iowa State.

(2) In New York. ... Providence simply will try to avoid the "bad loss" when it takes on lowly DePaul. Winning the game does nothing for the Friars' resume, but it would give them a crack at Louisville.

(3) In LaLa Land. ... my choice among major-conference schools to steal an at-large bid (Wazzu) begins play in the Pac 10 Tournament vs. Oregon. If Wazzu can get past Oregon and then UCLA tomorrow, be very afraid bubble dwellers. Taylor Rochestie is the West Coast version of Ben Woodside, a stone-cold silent assassin.

Punched Ducat (12)
19. Siena (26-7)
27. Gonzaga (25-5)
45. Western Kentucky (23-8)
50. VCU (24-9)
55. Cleveland State (22-10)
60. Northern Iowa (22-10)
86. North Dakota State (24-6)
114. Cornell (19-9)
116. East Tennessee State (21-10)
131. Radford (18-11)
141. Morehead State (17-15)
180. Chattanooga (16-16)

Highest Remaining Conference Tournament Seed (19)
3. North Carolina (26-3)
6. Michigan State (25-5)
7. Kansas (25-6)
8. Memphis (28-3)
9. Louisville (25-5)
13. Washington (23-7)
15. Xavier (24-6)
21. BYU (23-6)
28. Utah State (26-4)
37. LSU (25-6)
77. American (23-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (17-7)
89. Binghamton (21-8)
113. Robert Morris (23-10)
117. Portland State (19-9)
135. Morgan State (19-11)
151. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
165. Bowling Green (16-12)
203. Alabama State (17-9)

Locks (24)
1. Pitt (27-3)
2. Duke (25-6)
4. UConn (27-3)
5. Oklahoma (27-4)
10. Wake Forest (24-5)
11. Mizzou (24-6)
12. Utah (21-8)
14. Villanova (25-6)
16. Florida State (23-8)
17. Clemson (23-7)
18. Syracuse (22-8)
20. Illinois (23-8)
22. Tennessee (19-11)
23. Dayton (25-6)
24. Butler (25-5): 2-1 vs. RPI top 50, 12-3 vs. RPI top 100, 11-3 R/N, SOS 93
26. West Virginia (21-10)
29. Texas A&M (22-8)
30. UCLA (24-7)
31. Marquette (23-8)
32. Purdue (22-9)
33. Cal (22-9)
34. Arizona State (22-8)
35. Texas (20-10)
36. Ohio State (20-9)

On the Verge (6) -- a lock with 1 more win
25. Oklahoma State (20-10): vs. Iowa State, Big 12 1st round (today)
38. Wisconsin (18-11): vs. Ohio State, Big 10 quarterfinals (Friday)
41. GOPHERS (20-9): vs. Northwestern, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
42. Michigan (18-12): vs. Iowa, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
54. Arizona (19-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
58. Boston College (21-10): vs. Virginia, ACC 1st round (Thursday)

On the Bubble (16)
39. Creighton (26-7): 2-2 vs. RPI top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI top 100, 11-5 R/N, SOS 107
40. Temple (19-11): vs. Saint Joseph's/Charlotte, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
43. San Diego State (19-8): at UNLV, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
46. St. Mary's (23-6): Eastern Washington (Friday)
48. Florida (22-9): vs. Arkansas, SEC 1st round (Thursday)
49. South Carolina (21-8): vs. Mississippi State/Georgia, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
52. Miami-Florida (17-11): vs. Virginia Tech, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
56. UNLV (21-9): San Diego State, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
59. New Mexico (21-10): vs. Wyoming, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
63. Virginia Tech (17-13): vs. Miami-Florida, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
64. Penn State (21-10): vs. Indiana, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
65. Rhode Island (22-9): vs. Duquesne/UMass, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
66. Auburn (20-10): vs. Florida/Arkansas, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
67. Maryland (18-12): vs. NC State, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
70. Northwestern (17-12): vs. GOPHERS, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
72. Providence (18-12): vs. DePaul, Big East 2nd round (today)

Note: Depending on computer access in Indy, I'll attempt to update this between now and Saturday. However, it's possible this could be the final at-large update until I post my final "Field of 65" selections either very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
 

SS ??

"Note: Depending on computer access in Indy, I'll attempt to update this between now and Saturday, but it's possible this could be the final at-large update until I post my final "Field of 65" selections either very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning"

Not only did the Hoosiers stink this season but they dont have computers or access to the inter-tubes! How backward are they? :)

Try a coffee shop. They have inter-tube access and I for one want to here from you!
 

No laptop for this guy. If our hotel has a business center, which I've been told it does, we'll be good to go. Otherwise. ...
 

I think he may be referring to his own access, meaning he'll be a bit busy watching ball and wreaking havoc on Naptown.

A huge thanks again for all of the work you do leading up to SS. Someone get Hodger on the payroll.
 

SS, how many bids does the Big 10 get. Do you think they will get? And with the Big 10 teams that are "On The Verge" can you rank them to order of most likely to get a bid to least likely? Thank you in advance.

MNBoiler.
 


Most likely 7

"How many bids do you think the Big 10 will get?"

In the end, looking at BTT matchups, etc., my guess is the final number will be 7. Odds are at least one of the bubble teams is going to lose & play their way out.

"And with the Big 10 teams that are "On The Verge" can you rank them in order of most likely to get a bid to least likely?"

(I'm including Penn State in my answer)
1. Wisconsin
2. Michigan
3. Gophers
4. Penn State

Wisconsin in all likelihood is in, even with a loss to OSU.

3 & 4 could just as easily be reversed because of Penn State's better wins within the conference and the Nitts' stronger finish than the Gophers. There's one simple fact I can't get out of my head about the Gophers. ... they've won 3 games since the calendar turned to February 1. ... only 3. And 1 of those 3 wins was vs. a historically bad Indiana team. No matter what the Gophers' resume says, that doesn't scream of "we deserve an at-large bid" if they fall to Northwestern.

If all 4 bubble teams win their first game, Big 10 commissioner Jim Delany is going to be smiling. That would make it very difficult for the committee not to take all 8. My prediction is that won't happen. Wisconsin and Michigan will lock up bids, while at least one of Gophers/Penn State will lose to make things more cut & dry in establishing the final pecking order.
 

Thanks SS, for all the info. I dont know what I'll do over the weekend without an updated bubble list....I hope you find a computer somewhere there. Damn Cleveland State!
 

I don't like the way this is shaping up. Seven is seeming more like the likely number. Anytime you have to leapfrog a team in conference standings to get in in my mind you just became an underdog. It is looking more and moe like us, PSU or both.
 

Providence 32 Depaul 31 at the half. If Providence loses ?
 



If Providence loses, I'd say its at-large chances are slim and none, and I'm guessing slim will have left the building. But if all the bubble teams continue to lose down the stretch, they'll have to select somebody just to fill out the bracket. Who knows?
 



DePaul down 2 with 4:44 left

Providence
2-8 vs RPI top 50, 72 RPI, SOS 49? No way they have a better resume than us at this point.
 



DePaul looks to be faltering down the stretch. Cinderella has left the building.
 

TubbytownUSA said:
DePaul down 2 with 4:44 left

Providence
2-8 vs RPI top 50, 72 RPI, SOS 49? No way they have a better resume than us at this point.
Click to expand...

And it looks like Providence is going to get the win. They play Louisville tomorrow at 12 ET, lets hope they lose.
 

I know SS has Texas Tech as a lock, but they suffered a bad loss to Texas Tech tonight. I wonder if they are truly a lock after this? They were 29 in the RPI, but this will likey knock them into the low 30's not much higher then us.
 

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