Way Too Early 2020-21 Big Ten Projection

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SelectionSunday

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For the record, I picked Gophers 7th in 2018-19 (finished 7th) and 10th (finished 12th) in 2019-20.
 



And I’ll answer the question before it’s asked. ... Gophers in the 5-7 range if Oturu returns.
 



B1G will be hard to project (again) due to the lack of high-end NBA talent in the league and on any one team. Gophers have a good chance of finishing .500 or better.
 

Only three players in the entire league leaving early. Wow.
 

Way too hard to do this with spring recruiting still left, transfers, and NBA draft decisions. Only two things that look like pretty safe bets to me right now are Iowa and Wisconsin should be near the top of the league. Other than that I can't even begin to make any guesses right now.
 

Garza has a shot to go in the first. Still might want to go pro like Coffey
 



OP has the Gophers at 13th next season. At this present moment, I think that's a fair spot. Without Oturu and with the inconsistent shooting this team has shown, any higher pick would just be wishful thinking.
 

MennoSota said:
OP has the Gophers at 13th next season. At this present moment, I think that's a fair spot. Without Oturu and with the inconsistent shooting this team has shown, any higher pick would just be wishful thinking.
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Oh c'mon. They can be every bit as successful as this year's squad. A 12th place finish isnt too optimistic, IMO.
 


Just for context regarding 12th place. This is the first time since the league expanded to 14 that the 12th place team has finished with a 40% in conference winning percentage. Also the lowest percentage in those years for the conference winner
The rest of the years:
18-19: 3 tied at 35%
17-18: 2 tied at 22%
16-17: 1 at 33.3%
15-16: 1 at 27.8%
14-15: 1 at 27.8%

So to finish 12th also likely means a regression record by a game or two.
 



Goldteam said:
It doesn't seem that Garza's game translates will to the NBA. He plays balls to the wall though, and I love that.
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I find that weird he has size and can shoot from anywhere on the floor and like you said very high motor
 

SelectionSunday said:

For the record, I picked Gophers 7th in 2018-19 (finished 7th) and 10th (finished 12th) in 2019-20.
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Anything above 12th with this roster would be surprising.

No depth, no size (Oturu is gone imo).

Very fair assessment.

In other words, same old crap in a different year.
 

If that's the betting line, I will take the over on the Gophers. Like I said in the other thread, Richard will find a way to cobble together some lineups without a true center, and he'll be coaching with career-preservation desperation. Besides, Carr will be a year better, and he was pretty dang good last season; and Gabe will get his feet back under him.
 

If we can somehow pull a top tier center out of the grad transfer market, have a healthy Curry, get quality minutes out of Freeman, and have Mashburn ready to take some of the load off of Carr, then we'll see a tourney-contending team.

In other words, I'm not optimistic.
 

If the betting line were 12th i would also jump on that. The problem is 7th or worse is simply terrible.
 

If I were Vegas and the Gophers are without Oturu, I’d set the over-under at 10th. Probably get equal action on both sides with that number.
 

I think he could play offense in the NBA. He couldnt guard anyone, he is very unathletic. He couldn't guard pick and rolls. As for college he is top notch.

Reminds me of big country reeves who dominated in college but didn't have the athleticism to succeed in the NBA. Mike Daum, Caleb Swanigan-really a bunch of Purdue's big men, were like this.

GopherBlood666 said:
I find that weird he has size and can shoot from anywhere on the floor and like you said very high motor
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march madness said:
Reminds me of big country reeves who dominated in college but didn't have the athleticism to succeed in the NBA. Mike Daum, Caleb Swanigan-really a bunch of Purdue's big men, were like this.
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Yes, Purdue big men, on the whole, didn't translate so well into the NBA. Glenn Robinson and Joe Barry Carroll, of course, were exceptions although Robinson's career was a bit shorter than expected. Carl Landry had a pretty long and solid career as well.

Perhaps the most surprising Purdue big man was Brad Miller. He wasn't even drafted but had the second most (next to Robinson) NBA minutes played among Purdue players over his 13 year NBA career.

Of course, there was also Brian Cardinal (not a big man per se) who must be considered the luckiest Purdue player ever. Somehow, some way, Cardinal managed to earn over $39 million dollars in his NBA career.
 

If this projection ends up anywhere close to accurate it will be a long slow painful end to the Pitino era.
 

Michigan State will be excellent - would take so many things going wrong for them to not be a top-six team in the Big 10.
Iowa looks like a top-5 team in the country if Garza stays. If he leaves, they've still got the talent in house plus in recruiting to be a top-half Big 10 team.
Ohio State is likely a top-10 team in the preseason. Loaded if Towns grad transfers there and Carton returns.
Michigan is likely a top-15 team in the preseason. Excellent freshman class and at least four rotation guys back before hitting the transfer market.
Purdue returns most of its team and all it's top guys.
Illinois has a great class coming in plus a solid crop of should-be returners.
Rutgers should be solid again - may take a step back with some losses but not bad.
Nebraska will be much better. Hoiberg has multiple transfers sitting out, plus a top JUCO transfer coming in along with King. And they'll be active in the transfer market.
Wisconsin returns four starters and several key reserves plus has a decent group of freshmen coming in with Davis and Carlson.
If Jackson-Davis comes back to Indiana, the Hoosiers should be competitive again.
Maryland will lose two starters but returns Wiggins, Ayala and Morsell - would expect them to drop but remain solid.
I expect all of these teams to be better than the Gophers.
I'd expect MN to be fighting with Penn State and Northwestern to stay out of the bottom of the league.

The question then becomes "is it fair to call for a coaching change since being bad was expected?"
 

If this is close to accurate, Coyle just made a bad mistake.
 


One way or another, looking almost inconceivable that the Gophs would break the streak and finish ahead of Wisconsin in the league. :sick:
 

Biggsohnasty said:
Michigan State will be excellent - would take so many things going wrong for them to not be a top-six team in the Big 10.
Iowa looks like a top-5 team in the country if Garza stays. If he leaves, they've still got the talent in house plus in recruiting to be a top-half Big 10 team.
Ohio State is likely a top-10 team in the preseason. Loaded if Towns grad transfers there and Carton returns.
Michigan is likely a top-15 team in the preseason. Excellent freshman class and at least four rotation guys back before hitting the transfer market.
Purdue returns most of its team and all it's top guys.
Illinois has a great class coming in plus a solid crop of should-be returners.
Rutgers should be solid again - may take a step back with some losses but not bad.
Nebraska will be much better. Hoiberg has multiple transfers sitting out, plus a top JUCO transfer coming in along with King. And they'll be active in the transfer market.
Wisconsin returns four starters and several key reserves plus has a decent group of freshmen coming in with Davis and Carlson.
If Jackson-Davis comes back to Indiana, the Hoosiers should be competitive again.
Maryland will lose two starters but returns Wiggins, Ayala and Morsell - would expect them to drop but remain solid.
I expect all of these teams to be better than the Gophers.
I'd expect MN to be fighting with Penn State and Northwestern to stay out of the bottom of the league.

The question then becomes "is it fair to call for a coaching change since being bad was expected?"
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Ha--they'll finish 10th, and he'll be a coach-of-the-year candidate! It's like when Trump appears presidential for a brief, isolated moment.
 

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