Purdue could be. They played us tough up here two years ago, and we're not talented enough to take anyone lightly. Every single conference game needs 100% output from our guys to ensure a win. And, of course, we're dealing with a bunch of 18-23 year olds so who knows what team is going to show up.
That said, if we give that 100% output I would be surprised at an upset, given how the teams match up stats wise. Purdue is pretty horrendous against the run, with the notable exception of the Nebraska game:
Maryland: 46 carries, 400 yards (8.7 ypc - season average, 5.7 ypc)
Illinois: 46 carries, 315 yards (6.8 ypc - season average, 5.1 ypc)
Iowa: 53 carries, 365 yards (6.9 ypc - season average, 4.6 ypc)
Nebraska: 37 carries, 157 yards (4.2 ypc - season average, 4.5 ypc)
Penn State: 38 carries, 257 yards (6.7 ypc - season average, 4.3 ypc)
We average 4.6 ypc this season, which isn't great, but given track records I would expect we'll be in the 5.5-6.5 ypc range on Saturday. That's a great recipe for a win, unless we start turning the ball over.
On the flip side, Purdue throws the ball a ton but doesn't do it with much efficiency - they have a lower YPA than we do. Our pass efficiency D is pretty dang good (#24 in the country) and their pass efficiency offense is pretty bad (#106 in the country). If we play how we can on D with Hardin back there, don't turn the ball over and commit to establishing the run through Brooks and Smith, I like our chances.