Vannini: The gap between the best CFB teams and the middle-tier teams hasn't been this small in at least a decade and it makes every week a wild ride.

[BleedGopher]

The downside of the Transfer Portal Era is many - lack of loyalty, fans feeling disconnected from the roster, coaches having to re-recruit their own kids throughout the season, etc., but the potential upside is that college football may inch closer to the NFL and become a true week by week sport...where more upsets happen, fans of mid-tier programs have more hope, etc.


Go Gophers!!

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Is there data or is this just a comment? It contradicts the prevailing narrative that the changes to the landscape are widening the gap between the top schools and the next tier. But I tend to think he's right.

 

[Word]

Is there data or is this just a comment? It contradicts the prevailing narrative that the changes to the landscape are widening the gap between the top schools and the next tier. But I tend to think he's right.

Transfer portal evens things out, but NIL has the opposite effect. Will be interesting to see which is a bigger factor in the next few years.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Is there data or is this just a comment? It contradicts the prevailing narrative that the changes to the landscape are widening the gap between the top schools and the next tier. But I tend to think he's right.

I wonder if one of the unforeseen and unpredictable effects of NIL is on culture: reduced player motivation and attention and camaraderie. The top programs are probably top heavy with higher paid guys, a pool of lower paid guys with the usual job hunting, dissatisfaction, checking out/quiet quitting familiar to everyone in the corporate world.

The story about the MSU players ready to do a work stoppage ahead of the Iowa game is bonkers, but maybe understandable when the collectives overprimised and underdelivered. Maybe that’s why Ohio State laid an egg in Eugene (only half kidding).

 

[Mr. 131]

I wonder if one of the unforeseen and unpredictable effects of NIL is on culture: reduced player motivation and attention and camaraderie. The top programs are probably top heavy with higher paid guys, a pool of lower paid guys with the usual job hunting, dissatisfaction, checking out/quiet quitting familiar to everyone in the corporate world.

The story about the MSU players ready to do a work stoppage ahead of the Iowa game is bonkers, but maybe understandable when the collectives overprimised and underdelivered. Maybe that’s why Ohio State laid an egg in Eugene (only half kidding).

It's a dynamic you can't ignore. I think that will for sure be a factor as things develop further. There's gonna have to be a base salary decent enough for the regular guys.

 

[btowngopher]

I think the free transfers more than NIL are evening things out. The top tier still have the elite players, but they no longer have the same kind of experienced and talented depth staying around and learning the system. Guys want the NIL money, but they also want to be able to play to chase the NFL money.

 

[fmlizard]

Minnesota and other schools near the same level are in the best spot for the Portal.

Several players typically enter from the "blue bloods" each offseason, and we can also get proven guys like Brosmer transferring up from G5 and FBS.

Meanwhile, it's rare for Minnesota to lose a player to a college "transfer up". The only guy that Minnesota wanted to keep in the Portal era but was bought off us was Bucky Irving. Most of the guys who excel at Minnesota and want to take the next step enter the NFL Draft, just as they did before the Portal.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

great, let’s celebrate when we actually sign Alabama and LSU transfers. Right now it’s hard to tell if we can capitalize on it. Tyler Williams came from Georgia but according to all reports he’s still a year away from being a big piece in the offense

 

[MaxyJR1]

It seems that this is happening, but really need a whole season to play out. Vandy over Alabama is not a trend. It's like MN beating Michigan once every 20 years.

The schedules are so unbalanced that records are very tight 3-4 games into the conference schedule.

The average margin of victory through 29 B1G games is 15.

B1G
11 of 29 have been 1 score games.
14 of 29 have been 3+ score games.
11 teams of 18 are .500 or better through 3-4 conference games.

SEC
23 Games Played and average margin of victory is 10.8 ppg
13 of 23 games have been 1 score games
5 of 23 games have been 3+ score games

So is NIL causing the Top of the SEC to be down?
Is this really a SEC parity thing with kids transferring to other SEC schools?

 

[MaxyJR1]

great, let’s celebrate when we actually sign Alabama and LSU transfers. Right now it’s hard to tell if we can capitalize on it. Tyler Williams came from Georgia but according to all reports he’s still a year away from being a big piece in the offense

We literally had an LSU transfer cause the pressure on Koi's first interception.

 

[btowngopher]

great, let’s celebrate when we actually sign Alabama and LSU transfers. Right now it’s hard to tell if we can capitalize on it. Tyler Williams came from Georgia but according to all reports he’s still a year away from being a big piece in the offense

Doesn’t really matter where they come from as long as they can play. We have picked up transfers from most of the blue bloods over the years including Bama and LSU in the past decade.

 

[BronkosGhost]

The downside of the Transfer Portal Era is many - lack of loyalty, fans feeling disconnected from the roster, coaches having to re-recruit their own kids throughout the season, etc., but the potential upside is that college football may inch closer to the NFL and become a true week by week sport...where more upsets happen, fans of mid-tier programs have more hope, etc.


Go Gophers!!

What exactly is he basing this on?

 

[upnorthkid]

What exactly is he basing this on?

His own thoughts.

So far in the top 25 there have been:
Week 1: 2 win by an unranked over ranked team; 10 FSU to Ga Tech (10.5pt dog), FSU to BC (16.5pt dog)
Week 2: 3 wins; NIU over 5 ND (28.5pt dog), Ill over 19 Kansas (4.5 pt dog), Syracuse over 23 Ga Tech (2.5pt dog)
Week 3: 0 wins
Week 4: 2 wins; Buffalo over 23 NIU (12.5pt dog), BYU over 13 K State (7.5pt dog)
Week 5: 2 wins; Kentucky over 6 Ole Miss (15.5pt dog), AZ over 10 Utah (7.5pt dog)
Week 6: 6 wins; Syracuse over 25 UNLV (5.5pt dog), Vandy over 1 Bama (22.5pt dog), Ark over 4 TN (14.5pt dog), Wash over 10 Mich (favored by 1.5), SMU over 22 LVille (6.5pt dog), MN over 11 USC (9.5pt dog)
Week 7: 1 win; ASU over 16 Utah (5.5pt dog)
Total: 16 wins

Teams who were these favorites who have lost
FSU: 1-5
ND: 5-1
Kansas: 1-5
Ga Tech: 5-2
NIU: 4-2
K State: 5-1
Ole Miss: 5-2
Utah: 4-2
UNLV: 5-1
Bama: 5-1
TN: 5-1
Mich: 4-2
LVille: 4-2
USC: 3-3

Those who pulled the upset who are now ranked: SMU, BYU, Illinois

Only 6 of these teams are still ranked (ND, K State, Bama, Ole Miss, TN, Michigan). There have been a couple of highlight games, same as there are every year. In 2021 there were 16. In 2022 there were 13, in 2023 there were 6. It's a relative thing where it felt so chalky last year with the top tier teams and this year it's been back to the normal variance we usually see with much of it being driven by that people are typically horrible at prognosticating which teams should be ranked and missing on teams like Illinois, BYU, and SMU who were actually better than the teams they beat (in addition to Ga Tech and BC who are better than a very mediocre FSU team)

To me his data doesn't have much actual support aside from a couple memorable ones (NIU, Vandy, Ark) that we see in typical years.

Further, 15 teams have made the CFP since its inception which is kind of nuts in 10 years. 7 of them are in the top 10 (top 10 teams who haven't made a CFP--> PSU, Miami, Iowa State)

 

[btowngopher]

The downside of the Transfer Portal Era is many - lack of loyalty, fans feeling disconnected from the roster, coaches having to re-recruit their own kids throughout the season, etc., but the potential upside is that college football may inch closer to the NFL and become a true week by week sport...where more upsets happen, fans of mid-tier programs have more hope, etc.


Go Gophers!!

College football has always been a true week by week sport, more so before playoff expansion. It was the only true week by week sport, not sure why people like it trying to replicate the NFL. The NFL has never been a week by week sport. The week by week results are meaningless for the first 75% of the season, and the last 25% only matter for the teams still in playoff contention.

 

[upnorthkid]

College football has always been a true week by week sport, more so before playoff expansion. It was the only true week by week sport, not sure why people like it trying to replicate the NFL. The NFL has never been a week by week sport. The week by week results are meaningless for the first 75% of the season, and the last 25% only matter for the teams still in playoff contention.

Agree with this entirely. You add to the playoff, you dilute how much every game matters. Yes it eliminated some teams earlier, but if you think the playoff games are the only ones that matter, then we might as well all make it from week 1.

I personally would love if the ncaa would stay as far away from the pro game as possible, but seems unlikely with the direction things are Heading

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

We literally had an LSU transfer cause the pressure on Koi's first interception.

You’re leaving out the obvious fact that he’s he’s a hometown kid that transferred back after not being able to break through the rotation (and likely for other reasons as well)

 

[60's Guy]

We beat Maryland and the question will become...Do you think the Gophers will get a home game to start the playoffs?

 

[MaxyJR1]

You’re leaving out the obvious fact that he’s he’s a hometown kid that transferred back after not being able to break through the rotation (and likely for other reasons as well)

You’re leaving out the fact he’s a 4 star with 4 years to develop and play. Tomato, tomato.

As long as they contribute here, I really don’t care where they come from.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Agree with this entirely. You add to the playoff, you dilute how much every game matters. Yes it eliminated some teams earlier, but if you think the playoff games are the only ones that matter, then we might as well all make it from week 1.

I personally would love if the ncaa would stay as far away from the pro game as possible, but seems unlikely with the direction things are Heading

Agree with both of you 100%. I remember when it was first being discussed on here a few years ago, the response from people liking the changes was a primitive, "more football = good".

Sigh.

 

[MNVCGUY]

It will be interesting to see how the playoff plays out. In the end this extra "parity" will still probably lead to mostly helmet schools dueling it out with a few other teams mixed in and having an outside shot of winning it all.

Champ is still likely coming from the Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon.....tier of teams, so not really that different then how it was with 4 teams.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Eh, i doubt it.

Best teams take some losses sure... still have vast talent advantage.

 

[MaxyJR1]

It will be interesting to see how the playoff plays out. In the end this extra "parity" will still probably lead to mostly helmet schools dueling it out with a few other teams mixed in and having an outside shot of winning it all.

Champ is still likely coming from the Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon.....tier of teams, so not really that different then how it was with 4 teams.

The x factor is that only 2 of those teams get auto bids to the quarterfinals. 3 of them will have to play an extra game.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Champ is still likely coming from the Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon.....tier of teams, so not really that different then how it was with 4 teams.

First, we didn't really care for 4 teams either. Go back to the top 2. Then, your sentence is still correct that the champ most likely comes from that group, but the joy of the regular season was watching them get eliminated when they'd lose to some team they should have beaten. Every year that stuff would happen where a top 5 team would fall to an unranked team, drop in the polls, and they'd need other upsets to happen in order to get back in the convo.

That was the excitement. Now the teams you mentioned each get 1 - 2 mulligans every regular season.

 

[Dave H]

You’re leaving out the obvious fact that he’s he’s a hometown kid that transferred back after not being able to break through the rotation (and likely for other reasons as well)

He didn't leave it out...it was not material to the point you made that he was arguing against.

 

[GopherRock]

This sport is cyclical. Some years, there is a clear gap between the top and the rest. Think 2005, where USC and Texas were well clear of everyone else. Some other years, it's complete chaos. This is one of the latter years.

 

[MNVCGUY]

We are definitely seeing the effects of unrestricted free agency for every player every year and the talent is probably a little more spread out than it has been in the past. But there is still a top tier and then everyone else. The top tier might be a little bigger and there might be more upsets when the other group plays the top tier but there is still a pretty clear distinction between the top (true NC contenders) and the rest.

 

[upnorthkid]

This sport is cyclical. Some years, there is a clear gap between the top and the rest. Think 2005, where USC and Texas were well clear of everyone else. Some other years, it's complete chaos. This is one of the latter years.

Minus that factually, it isn’t. The typical best teams are all still there and going to make the playoff. Except now they get a mulligan for losing to a bad team that might’ve bounced them before (Bama getting into the top 2 having lost to Vanderbilt is a non starter, top 4 even tough unless other losses and they win the SEC). The results are actually pretty in line with a typical year and the teams that will be in the playoff are going to be 75% the same usual suspects

 

[jonnyganas]

great, let’s celebrate when we actually sign Alabama and LSU transfers. Right now it’s hard to tell if we can capitalize on it. Tyler Williams came from Georgia but according to all reports he’s still a year away from being a big piece in the offense

We've had LSU and Alabama transfers in the Fleck era.
Jaxon Howard transferred from LSU.
OJ Smith transferred from Alabama.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

This sport is cyclical. Some years, there is a clear gap between the top and the rest. Think 2005, where USC and Texas were well clear of everyone else. Some other years, it's complete chaos. This is one of the latter years.

Well, since you said it, can you name those years? Maybe 2007? Otherwise, I think for most of this century it's been pretty obvious who was at the top after Thanksgiving weekend.

I will say though that for many of those years, there would be people in October blabbing about how there are so many good teams and not enough spots, like a few years ago when Michigan and Iowa were both ranked top 5. But it almost always seemed to settle itself out by the end of the season, except for one or two seasons.

I'll gladly take college football seasons where once every 10-20 years one team (#3) doesn't get to compete for the National Championship even though they might be a legit contender for it, versus every season having about 8 teams invited to compete that have no business being there.