Iceland12
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Started thinking about this after taking a look at TCU yesterday after all the discussion about scheduling. For years there is always a big discussion here about how some non-BCS teams can have such great years. How they can put 10-11-12 game winning seasons together without all that "4 and 5 Star talent". How if "they can do it there how come we can't do it here?" That discussion probably takes place among fans of all the "have not" BCS schools. It leads to arguments about stars, scheduling and coaching and it happens every year. Usually more than once.
Around the country these discussions center on how fair or unfair it is to exclude those teams from a shot at the National Championship game. Fairness, credibility, sports offered, East Coast bias and money spent were added to our discussions. These discussions centered around four schools: Utah, TCU, BYU and Boise State.
The discussion will take place again this year to be sure but it shouldn't, it should be settled by now. They appear to be more products of their schedule rather than legit contenders. BYU has fallen out of the discussion the last few years because they have't been that impressive. Their move to independence hoping for a national TV network has proven the height of folly or more likely hubris. Utah and TCU? Their move to the PAC 12 and BIG 12 respectively has shown them to be average players on a BCS scale. It's a small sample to be sure, but it appears that the arguments about how mush easier it must be to play only 2-3 BCS teams a year rather than 7-8 have been proven pretty solid.
Personally couldn't be HAPPIER that TCU is on the schedule. Good road spot, name school, Texas school, BCS school it's all good! Just please, no arguments about how massive an upgrade they are over UNC. They are not. You can make the argument that their fans should look at the Gophers as a "walkover". A couple of easy BCS wins. If they look at the Gophers history over the last 40 years they have every right to think that. It's been mediocre to brutal, with only 4 or 5 seasons where Gopher Fans could take a lot of pride in their overall and/or Big Ten records. Hell, if the stories are true TCU is so confident about a win that we're not even paying them to come up here!
Maybe they shouldn't feel that confident though. Just like Utah in the PAC12, TCU was a mediocre team when they got back to playing a "Big Boy" schedule. "Back to" actually applies only to TCU. They were part of the SWC before it feel apart do to the worst Conference wide cheating schedules in NCAA history. They didn't dominate that Conference and they won't dominate the BIG 12 either. They might get better that's for sure. Their recruiting is going well and Patterson is a good coach, but they're not there yet and now that they're playing Nine BSC teams rather than two, it's going be tough.
Utah was 10-3 and 7-1 in the MWC in 2010. 2011 they were 8-5 and 4-5 in the Pac 12. They lost to USC, Washington, Arizona State, California and Colorado. 2012? 5-7 and 3-6. They lost to Utah State, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington and Arizona.
TCU was 11-2 and 7-0 in the MWC in 2011. They played one BSC team, Baylor, and lost to them. 2012? 7-6 and 4-5. They lost to Iowa State, OK, OK State, Texas Tech, Michigan State and Kansas State.
Now, the Gophers have been bad, VERY bad, but in the last few years we've beaten Michigan State and had toss-up games against Iowa State, USC and Texas Tech. All excuses for those schools aside, one score changes the outcome of any of those games. TCU should be a winnable game, maybe it won't turn out that way, probably shouldn't, but it could.
Now, all that's left is Boise State. 2012 they played two BSC teams. They lost to Michigan State and beat Washington. 2011 they beat Georgia to start the season and Arizona State to end it. 2010 they beat Virginia Tech a very good team and Oregon State a bad one. They bailed on the Big East and head back home to the MWC this year for arguably some good reasons. Credit them for not going the BYU route though. Looks like we'll never know how they might do if they play 3, 6 or 9 BCS teams a year rather then 2 of them.
The results of Utah and TCU suggest that it wouldn't go well
Around the country these discussions center on how fair or unfair it is to exclude those teams from a shot at the National Championship game. Fairness, credibility, sports offered, East Coast bias and money spent were added to our discussions. These discussions centered around four schools: Utah, TCU, BYU and Boise State.
The discussion will take place again this year to be sure but it shouldn't, it should be settled by now. They appear to be more products of their schedule rather than legit contenders. BYU has fallen out of the discussion the last few years because they have't been that impressive. Their move to independence hoping for a national TV network has proven the height of folly or more likely hubris. Utah and TCU? Their move to the PAC 12 and BIG 12 respectively has shown them to be average players on a BCS scale. It's a small sample to be sure, but it appears that the arguments about how mush easier it must be to play only 2-3 BCS teams a year rather than 7-8 have been proven pretty solid.
Personally couldn't be HAPPIER that TCU is on the schedule. Good road spot, name school, Texas school, BCS school it's all good! Just please, no arguments about how massive an upgrade they are over UNC. They are not. You can make the argument that their fans should look at the Gophers as a "walkover". A couple of easy BCS wins. If they look at the Gophers history over the last 40 years they have every right to think that. It's been mediocre to brutal, with only 4 or 5 seasons where Gopher Fans could take a lot of pride in their overall and/or Big Ten records. Hell, if the stories are true TCU is so confident about a win that we're not even paying them to come up here!
Maybe they shouldn't feel that confident though. Just like Utah in the PAC12, TCU was a mediocre team when they got back to playing a "Big Boy" schedule. "Back to" actually applies only to TCU. They were part of the SWC before it feel apart do to the worst Conference wide cheating schedules in NCAA history. They didn't dominate that Conference and they won't dominate the BIG 12 either. They might get better that's for sure. Their recruiting is going well and Patterson is a good coach, but they're not there yet and now that they're playing Nine BSC teams rather than two, it's going be tough.
Utah was 10-3 and 7-1 in the MWC in 2010. 2011 they were 8-5 and 4-5 in the Pac 12. They lost to USC, Washington, Arizona State, California and Colorado. 2012? 5-7 and 3-6. They lost to Utah State, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington and Arizona.
TCU was 11-2 and 7-0 in the MWC in 2011. They played one BSC team, Baylor, and lost to them. 2012? 7-6 and 4-5. They lost to Iowa State, OK, OK State, Texas Tech, Michigan State and Kansas State.
Now, the Gophers have been bad, VERY bad, but in the last few years we've beaten Michigan State and had toss-up games against Iowa State, USC and Texas Tech. All excuses for those schools aside, one score changes the outcome of any of those games. TCU should be a winnable game, maybe it won't turn out that way, probably shouldn't, but it could.
Now, all that's left is Boise State. 2012 they played two BSC teams. They lost to Michigan State and beat Washington. 2011 they beat Georgia to start the season and Arizona State to end it. 2010 they beat Virginia Tech a very good team and Oregon State a bad one. They bailed on the Big East and head back home to the MWC this year for arguably some good reasons. Credit them for not going the BYU route though. Looks like we'll never know how they might do if they play 3, 6 or 9 BCS teams a year rather then 2 of them.
The results of Utah and TCU suggest that it wouldn't go well