Updated: Sunday, March 9 Snapshot Look at the Field of 68; SIU-E & Omaha are Dancing

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SelectionSunday

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Thursday morning edit: George Mason and San Francisco are no longer under at-large consideration.

Through March 5. ...

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31)
America East: Bryant
American: Memphis
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Lipscomb
Atlantic 10: VCU
Big East: Saint John's
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Michigan State
Big XII: Houston
Big West: UC-San Diego
Coastal: Towson
Conference USA: Jacksonville State
Horizon: Robert Morris
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: New Mexico
NEC: Central Connecticut
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SoCon: Chattanooga
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Omaha
Sun Belt: South Alabama
WCC: Saint Mary's
WAC: Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (25)
Alabama
Arizona
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Wisconsin

Win Next Game & They're Locked In (5) -- though not locks, currently assumed into the field
Baylor (Houston)
San Diego State (Nevada)
Utah State (Air Force)
Vanderbilt (@ Georgia)
West Virginia (UCF)

Squarely on the Bubble (9 teams for 7 spots)
Arkansas
Boise State
Georgia
Indiana
North Carolina
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Wake Forest
Xavier

Longshots (6)
Colorado State
Dayton
Nebraska
SMU
Texas
UC-Irvine

Thursday Bracket Impact Things to Watch
1. We have action in 8 conference tournaments Thursday: ASUN (semifinals), Horizon (quarterfinals), Missouri Valley (1st round), OVC (quarterfinals), Patriot (quarterfinals), Summit (quarterfinals), Sun Belt (3rd round), WCC (1st round)

1. Can #8 seed Kansas City (the preseason favorite) knock off Summit League champion Omaha? The Mavericks swept the season series by a combined 31, both by double digits.
 
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Through March 6. ...

Available At-Large Bids = 11

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31)
America East: Bryant
American: Memphis
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Lipscomb
Atlantic 10: VCU
Big East: Saint John's
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Michigan State
Big XII: Houston
Big West: UC-San Diego
Coastal: Towson
Conference USA: Jacksonville State
Horizon: Robert Morris
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: New Mexico
NEC: Central Connecticut
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SoCon: Chattanooga
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Omaha
Sun Belt: South Alabama
WCC: Saint Mary's
WAC: Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (25)
Alabama
Arizona
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Wisconsin

Almost There; Win Next Game & They're Locked In (5)
Baylor (Houston)
San Diego State (Nevada)
Utah State (Air Force)
Vanderbilt (@ Georgia)
West Virginia (UCF)

Squarely on the Bubble (11 teams for last 7 spots)
North Carolina (IN)
Ohio State (IN)
Xavier (IN)
Boise State (LAST 4 IN)
Indiana (LAST 4 IN)
Oklahoma (LAST 4 IN)
Georgia (LAST TEAM IN)
Wake Forest (FIRST TEAM OUT)
Arkansas (FIRST 4 OUT)
Dayton (FIRST 4 OUT)
Texas (FIRST 4 OUT)

Longshots (4)
Colorado State
Nebraska
SMU
UC-Irvine

Friday Bracket Impact Things to Watch
1. For the second straight day we have action in 8 conference tournaments, with the Coastal and SoCon starting play in Washington, D.C. and Asheville, NC, respectively. Keep your eyes on Arch Madness in Saint Louis, where #1 seed Drake kicks off Missouri Valley Conference tournament play vs. #8 Southern Illinois. I'm confident in the Bulldogs' ability to garner an at-large if they don't earn the MVC auto bid, but I wouldn't recommend getting dumped by the Salukis in the quarterfinals.

2. We have a huge bubble matchup in the Mountain West, where Boise State (among last 4 in) hosts Colorado State (longshot) at 8 p.m. on FS1. Boise State enters the game on a 5-game winning streak, while Niko Medved's Rams squad tops that with 6 straight wins. Something has to give.

3. In the Summit League, half of a potentially hellacious semifinal Saturday is set after top seed Omaha and #2 seed St. Thomas cruised in their respective Thursday quarterfinals. Today #4 seed North Dakota State (vs. #5 South Dakota) and #3 South Dakota State (vs. #6 North Dakota Fighting Sioux) look to join the Mavericks & Tommies. Word is circulating that versatile NDSU stud big man Jacksen Moni is out for the tournament with a wrist injury, but NDSU has not confirmed that. Hoping the young man can play, as the 4-5 game shapes up to be a frenetic, high-scoring doozy.

4. Dayton @ VCU in the A-10 is a big one. Rams have clinched the #1 seed in the conference tournament, but can’t afford a slip-up in the event they have to go the at-large route. NET ranking is shiny (#29), but resume is flimsy. And the Flyers have to win to remain in the bubble conversation.
 
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The big news is that in the Patriot League, the #3 Seeded Colgate Raiders will have to go on the road for the first time since March 7, 2018 when they lost to Bucknell in the Championship that year.

Yesterday Colgate handled #6 Army 84-55. It looked like the home court streak could be extended, as #1 Bucknell was forced to OT by Loyola (MD) but eventually won 76-72. Bucknell will take on #5 Navy.

#2 American also outlasted Lafayette 71-69, so Colgate will head to Washington, DC for the Sunday Semifinal on CBS Sports.
 

Ope3 said:
The big news is that in the Patriot League, the #3 Seeded Colgate Raiders will have to go on the road for the first time since March 7, 2018 when they lost to Bucknell in the Championship that year.

Yesterday Colgate handled #6 Army 84-55. It looked like the home court streak could be extended, as #1 Bucknell was forced to OT by Loyola (MD) but eventually won 76-72. Bucknell will take on #5 Navy.

#2 American also outlasted Lafayette 71-69, so Colgate will head to Washington, DC for the Sunday Semifinal on CBS Sports.
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Patriot looked ripe for upsets last night but ended up basically chalk. Roll the dice on the Midshipmen. Live a little.
 

Holy Man said:
Patriot looked ripe for upsets last night but ended up basically chalk. Roll the dice on the Midshipmen. Live a little.
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I'm going to definitely root for the Middies. Hard to believe Ed DeChellis is in his 13th Season at Annapolis.
 
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Hodger, huge win for Dayton. Does this put them in or do they need to go far in A10?

Go Gophers!!
 

BleedGopher said:
Hodger, huge win for Dayton. Does this put them in or do they need to go far in A10?

Go Gophers!!
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I think they have a decent shot, enough so that I moved them into the field today. But I don't expect it to stick unless they at least get to the final.
 
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Through March 7. ...

Available At-Large Bids = 11

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31)
America East: Bryant
American: Memphis
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Lipscomb
Atlantic 10: VCU
Big East: Saint John's
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Michigan State
Big XII: Houston
Big West: UC-San Diego
Coastal: Towson
Conference USA: Jacksonville State
Horizon: Robert Morris
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: New Mexico
NEC: Central Connecticut
OVC: Southeast Missouri State
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SoCon: Chattanooga
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Omaha
Sun Belt: South Alabama
WCC: Saint Mary's
WAC: Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (25)
Alabama
Arizona
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Wisconsin

Almost There; Win Next Game & They're Locked In (5)
Baylor (Houston)
San Diego State (Nevada)
Utah State (Air Force)
Vanderbilt (@ Georgia)
West Virginia (UCF)

Squarely on the Bubble (11 teams for last 7 spots)
Ohio State (IN)
Xavier (IN)
North Carolina (IN)
Colorado State (LAST 4 IN)
Oklahoma (LAST 4 IN)
Dayton (LAST 4 IN)
Georgia (LAST TEAM IN)
Indiana (FIRST TEAM OUT)
Arkansas (FIRST 4 OUT)
Boise State (FIRST 4 OUT)
Texas (FIRST 4 OUT)

Longshots (4)
Wake Forest
UC-Irvine
Nebraska
SMU

Saturday Bracket Impact Things to Watch
1. The first automatic bid gets doled out tonight. The OVC championship game pits #1 Southeast Missouri State vs. #2 SIU-Edwardsville (8 p.m./ESPN2).

2. All 5 of my "Almost There" teams can lock up a bid with a win today: Baylor; San Diego State; Utah State; Vanderbilt; and West Virginia. Baylor by far has the toughest task doing so, hosting Houston. Ohio State @ Indiana feels like a de facto play-in game, but I'm not quite ready to lock either team in no matter the winner.

3. Oklahoma (last 4 in) @ Texas (first 4 out) is a critical bottom end of the bubble classic. Despite its 5-12 SEC record, I have the Sooners (because of a stellar non-conference performance) with a much stronger resume than Texas, whose SEC record isn't much better (6-11).
 
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Love what you do every year around this time!!!.

Why would Gonzaga be a lock? If the rolls were reversed between St. Mary's and Gonzaga this year most likely St. Mary's would not be a lock. Just curious.
 



RockChalk said:
Love what you do every year around this time!!!.

Why would Gonzaga be a lock? If the rolls were reversed between St. Mary's and Gonzaga this year most likely St. Mary's would not be a lock. Just curious.
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Thank you, very fair question.

I don't like Gonzaga's resume much at all. Really, the only good wins the Zags have are Baylor, San Diego State, and Indiana, and all 3 of those are "bottom end of the bracket" at-larges. Bottom line is their predictive metrics are strong (read: they blow out bad teams), and they have a NET ranking (#8) in the top 10. In my opinion, the committee isn't going to leave out a team in the top 10, even if it's not a brand name.

Please note, for my projections I'm trying to match what the Selection Committee will do, not what I think they should do, though in all honesty I think they get it right (at-large selections) most of the time.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thank you, very fair question.

I don't like Gonzaga's resume much at all. Really, the only good wins the Zags have are Baylor, San Diego State, and Indiana, and all 3 of those are "bottom end of the bracket" at-larges. Bottom line is their predictive metrics are strong (read: they blow out bad teams), and they have a NET ranking (#8) in the top 10. In my opinion, the committee isn't going to leave out a team in the top 10, even if it's not a brand name.

Please note, for my projections I'm trying to match what the Selection Committee will do, not what I think they should do, though in all honesty I think they get it right (at-large selections) most of the time.
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If #8 in the Net doesn’t have any impressive resume, something is really wrong with the metric.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thank you, very fair question.

I don't like Gonzaga's resume much at all. Really, the only good wins the Zags have are Baylor, San Diego State, and Indiana, and all 3 of those are "bottom end of the bracket" at-larges. Bottom line is their predictive metrics are strong (read: they blow out bad teams), and they have a NET ranking (#8) in the top 10. In my opinion, the committee isn't going to leave out a team in the top 10, even if it's not a brand name.

Please note, for my projections I'm trying to match what the Selection Committee will do, not what I think they should do, though in all honesty I think they get it right (at-large selections) most of the time.
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Thank you for sharing.
 

Oklahoma beats Texas. I guess OU is close to a lock with their 6-12 SEC record.
 



Through March 8. ...

Available At-Large Bids = 8

Automatic Bid/Placeholders (31) -- bold/italic = clinched auto bid
America East: Bryant
American: Memphis
ACC: Duke
ASUN: Lipscomb
Atlantic 10: VCU
Big East: Saint John's
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
Big South: High Point
Big Ten: Michigan State
Big XII: Houston
Big West: UC-San Diego
Coastal: Towson
Conference USA: Jacksonville State
Horizon: Robert Morris
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Drake
Mountain West: New Mexico
NEC: Central Connecticut
OVC: #2 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Auburn
SoCon: Chattanooga
Southland: McNeese
SWAC: Southern
Summit: #1 OMAHA
Sun Belt: South Alabama
WCC: Saint Mary's
WAC: Utah Valley

Non-Auto Bid Locks (29)
Alabama
Arizona
BYU
Clemson
Creighton
Florida
Georgia
Gonzaga
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oregon
Purdue
San Diego State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
UConn
Utah State
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Almost There; Win Next Game & They're Locked In (3)
Indiana (vs. TBD)
Vanderbilt (vs. Texas)
Xavier (vs. Marquette)

Squarely on the Bubble (7 teams for 5 spots)
Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Colorado State
Dayton
Oklahoma
UC-Irvine

Longshots (6) -- must win at minimum 2 games to get to the bubble
Nebraska
North Carolina
Ohio State
SMU
Texas
Wake Forest

Sunday Bracket Notes
1. Georgia, San Diego State, Utah State, and West Virginia earned lock status with their wins Saturday. Baylor's loss to Houston moves them to the bubble with all the rest.

2. SIU-Edwardsville (OVC) and Omaha (Summit) earned the first two autoamtic bids. Omaha's comes by virtue of St. Thomas (ineligible) making the championship game, thus earning the #1 seed Mavericks the automatic spot no matter who wins tonight's title game. UST coach Johnny Tauer already has announced they will not play in the postseason (CBI), which clearly would have a spot for the Tommies if the interest was mutual.

3. Three more automatic bids Sunday:
Big South: #1 High Point vs. #3 Winthrop, 11 (ESPN2)
ASUN -- #2 North Alabama @ #1 Lipscomb, 1 (ESPN2)
Missouri Valley: #1 Drake vs. #2 Bradley, 1:10 (CBS)

The Omaha-St. Thomas Summit League championshp game is at 8 p.m. on CBS Sports Network.

4. Interesting spot for Nebraska today. The Cornhuskers must beat Iowa to make the 15-team Big Ten Tournament field, but if they do they'll still be in the mix for an at-large bid with a 2- or 3-win showing in Indianapolis. The bubble is nuts!

5. A quick note on previously mentioned Drake. At this point I'm about 95% sure if DU loses I will put the Bulldogs into the field as an at-large. Them and UC-San Diego are the two mid-majors I feel like the committee has to have in the field, win or lose in their conference tournament.
 





Hypothetical;

Gophers win today.
The way it works out is they get 11

Path is: northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, Michigan state

They win all 5:
What seed would they be?


They win the first four and lose to Michigan state:
How far away from the tourney are they?




By the way I don’t predict they win today 😂
 

Holy Man said:
Why would St. Thomas turn down post season? Getting on the portal recruiting trail? Cost to St. Thomas?
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I know cost is an issue.

Would like to see them in the postseason, but I I can understand the decision not to play. In effect, this Summit League Tournament is their postseason. Win or lose tonight, the CBI would be a letdown. How fired up would they be to play in it after (in a perfect world) making school history?

The recruiting trail would make sense, too. They really, really need a post presence (especially defensively) to complete an already strong roster. Need a dude that can rebound. Of course, that assumes free agency doesn't strip them of any key returnees.
 

Any chance the loser of Bradley/Drake gets in the dance?
 

SelectionSunday said:
I know cost is an issue.

Would like to see them in the postseason, but I I can understand the decision not to play. In effect, this Summit League Tournament is their postseason. Win or lose tonight, the CBI would be a letdown. How fired up would they be to play in it after (in a perfect world) making school history?

The recruiting trail would make sense, too. They really, really need a post presence (especially defensively) to complete an already strong roster. Need a dude that can rebound. Of course, that assumes free agency doesn't strip them of any key returnees.
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They’re going to start spending their NIL now that they’re eligible
 


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