Updated Field of 68 (through Monday 3/11)/Field Projection Stats

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SelectionSunday

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Davidson, Gonzaga, Iona, James Madison, and Western Kentucky earned automatic bids Monday.

Saint Mary's remains on the bubble. Saint Mary's resume (1-3 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI top 100) really is not all that different than Middle Tennessee, other than its BracketBusters win over Creighton. That said, if push comes to shove and I have to pick one of those two, easily it's Saint Mary's.

Three more auto bids will be doled out tonight:
Northeast: #5 Mount Saint Mary's @ #3 Long Island, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Horizon: #3 Wright State @ #1 Valpo, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Summit: #1 South Dakota State vs. #3 North Dakota State, 8 p.m. (ESPN2)

In addition, the Big Boy conferences get underway when the Big East (as we know it) kicks off its final hoops extravaganza on ESPNU. ... #12 Seton Hall vs. #13 USF (6 p.m.) and #11 Rutgers vs. #14 DePaul (8:30 p.m.).

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed in Conference Tournament (31)
#2 New Mexico (Mountain West)
#4 Miami-Florida (ACC)
#5 Indiana (B1G)
#6 GONZAGA (West Coast)
#7 Florida (SEC)
#8 Kansas (Big 12)
#10 Georgetown (Big East)
#16 Memphis (Conference USA)
#18 BELMONT (Ohio Valley)
#25 CREIGHTON (Missouri Valley)
#27 Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)
#29 UCLA (Pac 12)
#46 Louisiana Tech (WAC)
#51 Akron (MAC)
#52 Bucknell (Patriot)
#60 Valparaiso (Horizon)
#61 DAVIDSON (Southern)
#64 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#72 South Dakota State (Summit)
#88 Montana (Big Sky)
#92 FLORIDA GULF COAST (Atlantic Sun)
#93 HARVARD (Ivy)
#96 IONA (MAAC)
#111 Long Beach State (Big West)
#126 Vermont (America East)
#155 WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
#168 Norfolk State (MEAC)
#180 JAMES MADISON (Colonial)
#185 Long Island (Northeast)
#189 Southern U (SWAC)
#286 LIBERTY (Big South)

Locks (24)
#1 Duke
#3 Louisville
#9 Michigan State
#11 Marquette
#12 Michigan
#13 Arizona
#14 Ohio State
#15 Colorado State
#17 Syracuse
#19 North Carolina
#20 Kansas State
#21 Butler
#22 UNLV
#23 Oklahoma State
#24 GOPHERS
#26 VCU
#28 NC State
#35 Missouri
#38 Temple
#39 Wichita State
#40 Pitt
#42 Wisconsin
#43 Illinois
#44 Notre Dame

In, But Require 1 More Win to Seal a Bid (7)
#31 San Diego State
#33 Oklahoma
#36 Colorado
#37 Boise State
#47 Iowa State
#48 Cal
#49 Cincinnati

On the Bubble (18)
#30 Middle Tennessee (out)
#32 Saint Mary's (in)
#34 Southern Miss (out)
#41 LaSalle (in)
#50 Kentucky (out)
#53 Villanova (in)
#54 Oregon (in)
#55 Tennessee (in)
#56 Ole Miss (out)
#57 Denver (out)
#58 UMass (out)
#62 Baylor (out)
#63 Alabama (out)
#65 Stanford (out)
#67 Virginia (in)
#77 Iowa (out)
#78 Xavier (out)
#80 Arkansas (out)

Last 4 In: Saint Mary's (#32), LaSalle (#41), Oregon (#54), Virginia (#67)
First 4 Out: Kentucky (#50), Ole Miss (#56), Baylor (#62), Alabama (#63)

PROJECTING THE AT-LARGES/STATS/MISCELLANEOUS
SS Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2011-12)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
Totals: 678/720 (94.2%)
Last 5 Years: 171/176 (97.2%)
Last 10 Years: 330/346 (95.4%)

SS At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
Last 3 Years: 104/108 (96.3%)
Since Field of 68: 71/74 (95.9%)

Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State instead)
Last 3 Years: 104/108 (96.3%)
Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
Last 3 Years: 103/108 (95.4%)
Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)

Five Worst At-Larges by RPI (circa expansion to 68)
67. USC – 2010-11 (First Four)
64. Marquette -- 2010-11 (#11 seed)
57. Clemson -- 2010-11 (First Four)
57. West Virginia -- 2011-12 (#10 seed)
55. Florida State -- 2010-11 (#10 seed)

RPIs of First Four At-Larges (Best to Worst)
31. UAB (2010-11)
37. Cal (2011-12)
40. Iona (2011-12)
45. BYU (2011-12)
49. VCU (2010-11)
52. USF (2011-12)
57. Clemson (2010-11)
67. USC (2010-11)
 

SS, You are the MAN! Great job.

Two Questions:

1. If the Gophers lose to Illinois what seed do you think they will get?

2. If Baylor beats K State thursday, are they in?
 

Section201 said:
SS, You are the MAN! Great job.

Two Questions:

1. If the Gophers lose to Illinois what seed do you think they will get?

2. If Baylor beats K State thursday, are they in?
Click to expand...


1. They'll be a low 9 or a high 10. Loss to Illinois won't matter much.

2. Depends on what other teams are doing.
 

Section201 said:
SS, You are the MAN! Great job.

Two Questions:

1. If the Gophers lose to Illinois what seed do you think they will get?

2. If Baylor beats K State thursday, are they in?
Click to expand...

Appreciate it, thanks.

1. 10 or 11 (10 if not many wacky things happen in the conference tourneys)

2. Baylor plays Ok State, but. ... I'd say no. The Bears need to get to the Big 12 finals to feel comfortable about getting a bid. I don't think beating only Ok State will be enough.
 

Baylor reminds me of the Missouri team about 10 years ago (could it be that long ago already) that was super talented, super dreadful, and then made the sweet 16 or elite 8 as a 12 seed, just like they should have all along.
 


From the Barn said:
Baylor reminds me of the Missouri team about 10 years ago (could it be that long ago already) that was super talented, super dreadful, and then made the sweet 16 or elite 8 as a 12 seed, just like they should have all along.
Click to expand...

Ah, the Quin Snyder days at Mizzou.
 

From the Barn said:
Baylor reminds me of the Missouri team about 10 years ago (could it be that long ago already) that was super talented, super dreadful, and then made the sweet 16 or elite 8 as a 12 seed, just like they should have all along.
Click to expand...

I recall that. They were a 12 seed and had an opening match-up with a vastly over-seeded Miami. I actually picked that Elite 8 run (it was a weak top half of that bracket.) I still didn't win my pool. I must have really tanked the rest of it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Appreciate it, thanks.

1. 10 or 11 (10 if not many wacky things happen in the conference tourneys)

2. Baylor plays Ok State, but. ... I'd say no. The Bears need to get to the Big 12 finals to feel comfortable about getting a bid. I don't think beating only Ok State will be enough.
Click to expand...

Thanks SS for the feedback. Yes, I did mean the first round Baylor - OK State game. Got my "States" mixed up.
 

You are getting better as time goes along SS!! Appreciate your posts.

And yet still some are predicting the Gophers to miss the tourney?! Well, I guess someones got to be wrong. lol
 



There's no way Kentucky doesn't make it in....They are 2nd place in the SEC...5 bids coming for the SEC....That Conference is too powerful when it comes to pull within the NCAA.
 

If Kentucky loses to Ark or Vandy on Friday, they won't make it in.
 

Neither of those teams are capable and KY will be dancing as always...Probably make the elite 8 too.
 




Moses87 said:
Neither of those teams are capable and KY will be dancing as always...Probably make the elite 8 too.
Click to expand...


Elite 8? What illegal substance are you currently ingesting?
 

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