Updated Field of 68 Projection Totals: SS vs. Palm & Lunardi

[SelectionSunday]

Using the first year of the Field of 68 (2010-11 season) as a starting point, heading into Selection Sunday Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, and I were tied selecting at-larges. Am disappointed to report I've dropped to 3rd place. I missed 4 this year, making it two straight disappointing years (last year missed 3). Palm missed 2 this year, Lunardi 3.

Yesterday marked the first time since the 1997-98 season I've missed more than 3 at-larges. I hope to get some street cred back next year! Thanks for following along.

For what it's worth, I'm not shocked Tulsa or any of my other misses made the field, it's more the fact Monmouth didn't. I was (wrongly) confident Monmouth would make the field.

The Leader: Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 35/36 (Colorado State/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 34/36 (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure; Tulsa/Vanderbilt instead)
Since Field of 68: 210/219 (95.9%)

2nd Place: Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 34/36 (Colorado State/Temple; Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 33/36 (Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State; Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt instead)
Since Field of 68: 209/219 (95.42%)

3rd Place: SS At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36 (Colorado State/Old Dominion/Temple; BYU/Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 32/36: (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State; Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt/Wichita State instead)
Since Field of 68: 208/219 (95%)

SS Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2015-16)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
Totals: 815/865 (94.2%)

 

[justthefacts]

Well, kudos for all the effort and analysis. I find it really helpful throughout the year.

One thing I notice about the last 2 years is that the committee has chosen Power 5 / "Name Brand" schools whereas you had predicted mid-majors. This is consistent with a complaint I saw a lot on Twitter yesterday. I believe the committee when they say they basically ignore conference and just look at the individual game results, but I wonder how the conference affiliation is getting reflected in the numbers. I wonder if the mid-majors just tend to end up with fewer top 50 wins and more 150+ losses.