Updated Field of 68: available bids at 13 after Notre Dame, Colorado seal the deal

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SelectionSunday

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Only a couple additions since Monday. I've added Notre Dame and Colorado to "lock" status after their wins over Saint John's and Oregon, respectively. I've included each team's weekend game.

Conference Leader/Highest Remaining Seed in Conference Tournament (31)
#2 New Mexico (Mountain West) -- @ Air Force (Saturday)
#3 Miami-Florida (ACC) -- CLEMSON (Saturday)
#4 Louisville (Big East) -- NOTRE DAME (Saturday)
#5 Kansas (Big 12) -- @ Baylor (Saturday)
#6 Florida (SEC) -- @ Kentucky (Saturday)
#8 Gonzaga (West Coast) -- vs. Santa Clara/Loyola Marymount winner, WCC semifinals (Saturday)
#10 Indiana (B1G) -- @ Michigan (Sunday)
#18 Memphis (Conference USA) -- UAB (Saturday)
#22 Belmont (Ohio Valley) -- vs. Tennessee State, OVC semifinals, 6 p.m.
#25 Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt) -- vs. Louisiana/North Texas winner, SBC quarterfinals (Saturday)
#29 VCU (Atlantic 10) -- @ Temple (Sunday)
#33 Creighton (Missouri Valley) -- vs. Drake, MVC quarterfinals, 12:05 p.m.
#35 UCLA (Pac 12) -- @ Washington (Saturday)
#45 Akron (MAC) -- KENT STATE, 6 p.m.
#47 Louisiana Tech (WAC) -- @ Denver (Saturday)
#53 Bucknell (Patriot) -- ARMY, Patriot semifinals (Saturday)
#61 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) -- TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (Saturday)
#62 Valparaiso (Horizon) -- GREEN BAY/UIC winner, Horizon semifinals (Saturday)
#68 South Dakota State (Summit) -- vs. IUPUI, Summit quarterfinals (Saturday)
#69 Stony Brook (America East) -- vs. Binghamton, A-East quarterfinals (Saturday)
#76 Davidson (Southern) -- vs. Wofford/Georgia Southern winner, SoCon quarterfinals (Saturday)
#93 Montana (Big Sky) -- NORTHERN ARIZONA (Saturday)
#110 Long Beach State (Big West) -- @ Pacific (Saturday)
#112 Princeton (Ivy) -- @ Yale, 6 p.m., @ Brown (Saturday)
#113 Robert Morris (Northeast) -- MOUNT SAINT MARY'S, NEC semifinals (Saturday)
#121 Niagara (MAAC) -- vs. Marist/Siena winner, MAAC quarterfinals (Saturday)
#129 Mercer (Atlantic Sun) -- USC-UPSTATE, A-Sun semifinals, 4:30 p.m.
#157 Northeastern (Colonial) -- vs. George Mason/Drexel winner, CAA semifinals (Sunday)
#162 Norfolk State (MEAC)
#183 Charleston Southern (Big South) -- vs. VMI, Big South semifinals (Saturday)
#188 Southern (SWAC)

Locks (24)
#1 Duke (ACC) -- @ North Carolina (Saturday)
#7 Michigan State (B1G) -- NORTHWESTERN (Sunday)
#9 Michigan (B1G) -- INDIANA (Sunday)
#11 Marquette (Big East) -- @ Saint John's (Saturday)
#12 Georgetown (Big East) -- SYRACUSE (Saturday)
#13 UNLV (Mountain West) -- FRESNO STATE (Saturday)
#14 Colorado State (Mountain West) -- NEVADA (Saturday)
#15 Arizona (Pac 12) -- ARIZONA STATE (Saturday)
#16 Ohio State (B1G) -- ILLINOIS (Sunday)
#17 Syracuse (Big East) -- @ Georgetown (Saturday)
#19 North Carolina (ACC) -- DUKE (Saturday)
#20 GOPHERS (B1G) -- @ Purdue (Saturday)
#21 Kansas State (Big 12) -- @ Oklahoma State (Saturday)
#23 Oklahoma (Big 12) -- @ TCU (Saturday)
#24 Colorado (Pac 12) -- OREGON STATE (Saturday)
#26 Butler (Atlantic 10) -- XAVIER (Saturday)
#27 NC State (ACC) -- @ Florida State (Saturday)
#28 Oklahoma State (Big 12) -- KANSAS STATE (Saturday)
#30 Missouri (SEC) -- @ Tennessee (Saturday)
#32 Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) -- LASALLE (Saturday)
#37 Illinois (B1G) -- @ Ohio State (Sunday)
#39 Pitt (Big East) -- @ DePaul (Saturday)
#41 Wisconsin (B1G) -- @ Penn State (Sunday)
#44 Notre Dame (Big East) -- @ Louisville (Saturday)

In for Now, But Not Quite Locked In (7)
#31 San Diego State (Mountain West) -- @ Boise State (Saturday)
#34 Saint Mary's (West Coast) -- vs. BYU/San Diego winner, WCC semifinals (Saturday)
#36 Wichita State (Missouri Valley) -- vs. Missouri State, MVC quarterfinals, 6:05 p.m.
#40 LaSalle (Atlantic 10) -- @ Saint Louis (Saturday)
#43 Temple (Atlantic 10) -- VCU (Sunday)
#48 Cincinnati (Big East) -- USF (Saturday)
#52 Villanova (Big East)

On the Bubble (11)
#42 Boise State (Mountain West) -- SAN DIEGO STATE (Saturday)
#49 Cal (Pac 12)
#50 Oregon (Pac 12) -- @ Utah (Saturday)
#51 Iowa State (Big 12) -- @ West Virginia (Saturday)
#54 Kentucky (SEC) -- FLORIDA (Saturday)
#55 UMass (Atlantic 10) -- @ Rhode Island (Saturday)
#56 Tennessee (SEC) -- MISSOURI (Saturday)
#57 Ole Miss (SEC) -- @ LSU (Saturday)
#66 Alabama (SEC) -- GEORGIA (Saturday)
#71 Baylor (Big 12) -- KANSAS (Saturday)
#73 Virginia (ACC) -- MARYLAND (Sunday)

Longshots (10) -- barely breathin'
#38 Southern Miss (Conference USA) -- UCF (Saturday)
#63 Stanford (Pac 12)
#64 Denver (WAC) -- LOUISIANA TECH (Saturday)
#74 Saint John's (Big East) -- MARQUETTE (Saturday)
#75 Iowa (B1G) -- NEBRASKA (Saturday)
#79 Providence (Big East) -- @ UConn (Saturday)
#81 Xavier (Atlantic 10) -- @ Butler (Saturday)
#84 Arkansas (SEC) -- TEXAS A&M (Saturday)
#86 Maryland (ACC) -- @ Virginia (Sunday)
#96 Arizona State (Pac 12) -- @ Arizona (Saturday)
 

All these bubble teams losing pretty much puts the Gophers in no matter what at this point.
 

I personally think that the RPI calculation underrates Iowa and that they'll be one of the better teams to not get in (if they don't get in, of course).
 

It's just weird to think the Gophers are a lock. It just feels like they are on the wrong side of the bubble. I guess I'll believe it when I see it.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
It's just weird to think the Gophers are a lock. It just feels like they are on the wrong side of the bubble. I guess I'll believe it when I see it.
Click to expand...

All you gotta do is look at the resumes of the bubble teams and you'll see how the Gophers size up. We may get seeded low because of our trip ups late in the year, but we should definitely be in the field.
 


Quality road/neutral wins are Example A of why Gophers are a lock

One additional thing working strongly in the Gophers' favor is something that might surprise a lot of folks, and it involves our road/neutral record. Yes, the Gophers' Big Ten road record is awful (it could slip to 1-8), and the Selection Committee (SC) surely will frown upon that. However, what the SC also will notice is the Gophers have 5 wins AWAY FROM HOME vs. teams in the top 100, two of which came vs. NCAA certainties (Memphis and Illinois).

Despite their struggles (even during their late-season struggles they've beaten NCAA locks Indiana & Wisconsin), if the Gophers are even remotely close to the bubble on Selection Sunday, that alone will get them a spot in the field. In my years of doing this, I don't think I've ever evaluated a "supposed" bubble team with 5 top-100 wins AWAY FROM HOME. Heck, some bubble teams that sneak into the tournament barely have 5 top-100 wins (home + road + neutral) in total.

vs. #18 Memphis (W)
@ #37 Illinois (W)
vs. #63 Stanford (W)
@ #87 Florida State (W)
@ #94 USC (W)

That's why they're in, folks, I'd argue more than any other reason.

If you need an example of a team building up a strong resume before struggling down the stretch, look no further than Villanova 2011. The Wildcats lost their last 5 games, were dumped in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament, were 3-7 in their last 10, and yet still got into the field without being shipped to Dayton for the First Four. ... and that was with worse RPI (38) and overall SOS (33) numbers than what the Gophers will finish with even if they lose their next two.
 

SelectionSunday said:
One additional thing working strongly in the Gophers' favor is something that might surprise a lot of folks, and it involves our road/neutral record. Yes, the Gophers' Big Ten road record is awful (it could slip to 1-8), and the Selection Committee (SC) surely will frown upon that. However, what the SC also will notice is the Gophers have 5 wins AWAY FROM HOME vs. teams in the top 100, two of which came vs. NCAA certainties (Memphis and Illinois).

Despite their struggles (even during their late-season struggles they've beaten NCAA locks Indiana & Wisconsin), if the Gophers are even remotely close to the bubble on Selection Sunday, that alone will get them a spot in the field. In my years of doing this, I don't think I've ever evaluated a "supposed" bubble team with 5 top-100 wins AWAY FROM HOME. Heck, some bubble teams that sneak into the tournament barely have 5 top-100 wins (home + road + neutral) in total.

vs. #18 Memphis (W)
@ #37 Illinois (W)
vs. #63 Stanford (W)
@ #87 Florida State (W)
@ #94 USC (W)

That's why they're in, folks, I'd argue more than any other reason.

If you need an example of a team building up a strong resume before struggling down the stretch, look no further than Villanova 2011. The Wildcats lost their last 5 games, were dumped in the 1st round of the Big East Tournament, and were 3-7 in their last 10, yet still got into the field and avoided the First Four in Dayton. ... and that was with worse RPI (38) and overall SOS (33) numbers than what the Gophers will finish with even if they lose their next two.
Click to expand...

Great posts Monty and SS. Makes me feel better. My post was more about feeling than fact.

I especially like the Villanova example. Sounds just like us this year.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
. ... My post was more about feeling than fact.
Click to expand...

I understand where you're coming from. What I think it all comes down to is, we'd all like the Gophers to take the path of least resistance to the NCAA Tournament. However, in general, we all know that hasn't been a strength of the program through the years (Haskins, Monson, Smith).
 

SelectionSunday said:
I understand where you're coming from. What I think it all comes down to is, we'd all like the Gophers to take the path of least resistance to the NCAA Tournament. However, in general, we all know that hasn't been a strength of the program through the years (Haskins, Monson, Smith).
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong, I am disappointed in this season. BUT...given our history, any path that ends in the tourney... well, I'm not too proud to take it!
 



SelectionSunday said:
What I think it all comes down to is, we'd all like the Gophers to take the path of least resistance to the NCAA Tournament. However, in general, we all know that hasn't been a strength of the program through the years (Haskins, Monson, Smith).
Click to expand...

Exactly.
 

Let's just beat Purdue and not worry about any of it.
 

CBS: Poppin' Bubbles

Minnesota: For now, the Golden Gophers are fairly comfortably in the field, but back-to-back losses at Nebraska and Purdue are concerning. If they lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament, where does that leave Minnesota? They will probably make the dance, but the seed is falling into dangerous territory.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...es-teams-in-danger-are-running-out-of-chances

Go Gophers!!
 

How many teams since the Field expanded to 64 or more have finished 5-11 in their last 16 games and still made the tourney?
 



Moses87 said:
How many teams since the Field expanded to 64 or more have finished 5-11 in their last 16 games and still made the tourney?
Click to expand...

I've heard the committee looks at last 10, but probably not "last 16" on a regular basis.

Michigan State lost 8 of their last 13 in 2011 before going to the BTT and the Dance.

Arizona in 2008 finished 3-7 in their last 10. That's the worst I can find quickly.
 

Short version - Committee does not look at a team's record in last 10 games, anymore.




Long version -

One thing that throws a lot of fans off, is this whole fallacy about the last 10 games.

It is not a fallacy based on nothing, so its very understandable that so many fans have this skewed view.

The NCAA wants to move away from cbb being ALL about March Madness. There is so much hype about March Madness, that the NCAA feels its taking away from the regular season, and of course, anything that takes away from the 4 month long regular season, COSTS THEM MONEY!!!!!!!!!

The Big Dance will hype itself, no matter what, so deemphasizing how teams finish out is a smart move on the NCAA's part.

Also a factor is the uneven scheduling in the ever larger growing conferences. Teams can not control how strong or weak their scedules are the last 10 games, and giving teams that finish out well a bonus creates an unfair situation for teams who happen to have their last 10 games loaded up with top competition.

So the NCAA Selection Committee has completely done away with the last 10 game factor.


This does not mean finishing out poorly is not going to hurt your seeding, but it will not affect whether you get in or not.


So no matter what happens in our first game of the BTT, the Gophers are a lock, they are in, its a done deal, there is NOTHING to worry about in that regards.



What there is to worry about? Our seeding. Do we want to have to play in a play in game?! NO!!!!!

Do we want an 11 seed when we could have a 6 seed instead?! No, of course not. So that is what we will be playing for in the BTT. Improving our seeding.


Thing is, with all of the instability/parody in the NCAA this season, getting an 11 seed might be better than getting an 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 seed? I don't think ANY of us are aiming for simply winning one game in the tourney, so our first round matchup doesn't matter, whoever we play, we simply have to beat them, and an 11 seed team could end up being better than some of the 8s, 9s or 10s we might otherwise meet if we were a better seed?

Honestly, I kind of hope we either win 3-4 games, or only 1 in the BTT. Winning 1 gets us that 11 seed, where if we upset the #6 seed, we get a matchup with a #3 seed in the 2nd round, which is a winnable game for us I think. We could end up playing any number of teams who have suffered embarrassing losses, or who got that high simply be beating up on weak competition.


If we win 2 games and get an 8 or 9 seed, well then IF we win our first game, then we're looking at playing a Louisville, Duke or Gonzaga team that would be much harder to beat.


I don't want to win just 1 game. I'd rather have the tougher first game resulting in the easier 2nd game, because if we lose in the first round, well, then maybe we get a new coach, but if we get to the Sweet 16, then maybe we get 1, 2 or 3 of the Big 3 recruits for 2014?!
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Short version - Committee does not look at a team's record in last 10 games, anymore.




Long version -

One thing that throws a lot of fans off, is this whole fallacy about the last 10 games.

It is not a fallacy based on nothing, so its very understandable that so many fans have this skewed view.

The NCAA wants to move away from cbb being ALL about March Madness. There is so much hype about March Madness, that the NCAA feels its taking away from the regular season, and of course, anything that takes away from the 4 month long regular season, COSTS THEM MONEY!!!!!!!!!

The Big Dance will hype itself, no matter what, so deemphasizing how teams finish out is a smart move on the NCAA's part.

Also a factor is the uneven scheduling in the ever larger growing conferences. Teams can not control how strong or weak their scedules are the last 10 games, and giving teams that finish out well a bonus creates an unfair situation for teams who happen to have their last 10 games loaded up with top competition.

So the NCAA Selection Committee has completely done away with the last 10 game factor.


This does not mean finishing out poorly is not going to hurt your seeding, but it will not affect whether you get in or not.


So no matter what happens in our first game of the BTT, the Gophers are a lock, they are in, its a done deal, there is NOTHING to worry about in that regards.



What there is to worry about? Our seeding. Do we want to have to play in a play in game?! NO!!!!!

Do we want an 11 seed when we could have a 6 seed instead?! No, of course not. So that is what we will be playing for in the BTT. Improving our seeding.


Thing is, with all of the instability/parody in the NCAA this season, getting an 11 seed might be better than getting an 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 seed? I don't think ANY of us are aiming for simply winning one game in the tourney, so our first round matchup doesn't matter, whoever we play, we simply have to beat them, and an 11 seed team could end up being better than some of the 8s, 9s or 10s we might otherwise meet if we were a better seed?

Honestly, I kind of hope we either win 3-4 games, or only 1 in the BTT. Winning 1 gets us that 11 seed, where if we upset the #6 seed, we get a matchup with a #3 seed in the 2nd round, which is a winnable game for us I think. We could end up playing any number of teams who have suffered embarrassing losses, or who got that high simply be beating up on weak competition.


If we win 2 games and get an 8 or 9 seed, well then IF we win our first game, then we're looking at playing a Louisville, Duke or Gonzaga team that would be much harder to beat.


I don't want to win just 1 game. I'd rather have the tougher first game resulting in the easier 2nd game, because if we lose in the first round, well, then maybe we get a new coach, but if we get to the Sweet 16, then maybe we get 1, 2 or 3 of the Big 3 recruits for 2014?!
Click to expand...

FWIW- I have read the same thing about the last ten record.... I think the committee does give a lot of value to overall SOS and number of good wins (or bad losses) regardless of when they are played.. it helps to encourage programs to schedule "up" in following seasons. Which is why Iowa can stuff it! :)
 

Bad Gopher said:
I personally think that the RPI calculation underrates Iowa and that they'll be one of the better teams to not get in (if they don't get in, of course).
Click to expand...

With the BTT seeding coming out, If Iowa is able to beat NW and then get by MSU, I think they will get in. Iowa has only themselves to blame if they don't get in. Its a shame how shaky they got down the stretch in games because they had a very small margin of error that was the difference between a 9-9 and 13-5 in conference record

Lost to Indiana by 4 at home when leading scorer went 1-15 from the floor
2 OT loss at Wisconsin. OT loss at Purdue
Lost @ Nebraska by 4 when they were up by 19
Up on MSU by 7 late in the second half at home only to lose by 4

Only real bad loss was early season loss at Michigan where they pissed the bed.

Next year they will be a scary team though. Only lose Eric May but bring in transfer Uthoff from Wisconsin(all reports stating he was our 3rd best player this year) and Peter Jok who as a HS freshmen was being talked about as the best player in the entire 2013 class. Ripped up his knee real bad so a lot of blue chip schools backed off but hes back and on a tear dominating the same league Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes came out of.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTd62X9Bq_g
 

Yeah, Iowa, if they don't get 2 or 3 wins in the BTT, could be a favorite to win the NIT tourney, and it wouldn't shock me if they ended up playing Purdue in the Title game. But then again, there will be a few other dangerous teams in the NIT this year as well
 

herkyhawkeye said:
With the BTT seeding coming out, If Iowa is able to beat NW and then get by MSU, I think they will get in. Iowa has only themselves to blame if they don't get in. Its a shame how shaky they got down the stretch in games because they had a very small margin of error that was the difference between a 9-9 and 13-5 in conference record

Lost to Indiana by 4 at home when leading scorer went 1-15 from the floor
2 OT loss at Wisconsin. OT loss at Purdue
Lost @ Nebraska by 4 when they were up by 19
Up on MSU by 7 late in the second half at home only to lose by 4

Only real bad loss was early season loss at Michigan where they pissed the bed.

Next year they will be a scary team though. Only lose Eric May but bring in transfer Uthoff from Wisconsin(all reports stating he was our 3rd best player this year) and Peter Jok who as a HS freshmen was being talked about as the best player in the entire 2013 class. Ripped up his knee real bad so a lot of blue chip schools backed off but hes back and on a tear dominating the same league Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes came out of.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTd62X9Bq_g
Click to expand...

It's the Hawkeyes' nonconference schedule (#308 of 347) killing 'em much moreso than the conference record.
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Yeah, Iowa, if they don't get 2 or 3 wins in the BTT, could be a favorite to win the NIT tourney, and it wouldn't shock me if they ended up playing Purdue in the Title game. But then again, there will be a few other dangerous teams in the NIT this year as well
Click to expand...

Purdue has to beat Nebraska and OSU in order to finish .500 (or better) just to be eligible for the NIT.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It's the Hawkeyes' nonconference schedule (#308 of 347) killing 'em much moreso than the conference record.
Click to expand...

I think the VA Tech game will be huge as well. Their non conference schedule was terrible but if they had beaten a brutal Tech team, they would have at least of beaten every team they should have.
 

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