UM/PSU...some interesting trends...

[NewEngland_Gold]

...using the latest weekly national team Sagarin Ratings (SR) and winning point spread (+Pts) stats:

Minny Wins_____SR___+Pts
@Syracuse______97___+3
Air Force________63___+7
@Northwestern___95___+11
Purdue__________91___+15

PSU Wins_______SR___+Pts
Akron__________129___+24
Syracuse________97___+21
Temple_________ 96___+25
@Illinois________112___+18
Eastern Illinois___156___ +48

My take re sequential wins: Minny seems to be getting stronger vs higher-ranked opponents (than PSU has played on average); PSU getting marginally better vs weaker opponents. Syracuse does not seem to be the key comparative match-up at this point in the season because it was the GGs first game and on the road, while it was PSU's second game, at home and they had the plus of being able to go to school on the Minny/Cuse tape.

Minny's +11 win on the road at Northwestern (SR=95) vs PSU's +18 win on the road at a floundering Illinois (SR=112) seems to be the more relevant comparison of relative team strength at this point in the season. There is more parity here than I anticipated when first looking at the numbers. After watching MSU dominate IL on BTN, I think most would agree that both NW and Purdue are stronger than IL currently.

As one of the BT's "top tier" and playing at home (homecoming), most pundits have this circled as a lock for the N-Lions. Here in the East, Minny still has the rep as a perpetual "lower-tier" rebuilding program and that general attitude has not changed this year. In fact, it will take several years of above average performance to change that perception IMHO.

However, as these SRs demonstrate, Minny is playing with increasing confidence on the road as well as at home as their team talent, experience and depth have bumped up a notch. In my view, PSU sees Minny=Syracuse...no big deal...and this is the tune-up for PSUs trip to Michigan on Oct 24. With some imaginative game-planning by Brew & Staff and disciplined on-field execution by the GGs, therein lies the opportunity for a big signature W in Happy Valley very few...even in GN...expect on Saturday.

 

[AeroGopher]

Interesting post. I agree there is a lot more parity there than first meets the eye. I'm curious to find out how their secondary has progressed this year. If they're mostly concerned with Decker and the passing offense, despite Weber's recent struggles, hopefully they will be overlooking the fact that we have found a way to run the ball effectively. Personally, I'm more worried about our defense in regards to containing and limiting Clark's performance. He's a beast. OTOH, I like our special teams play a lot. It will be a great game to watch in person.

 

[RaT]

I took the Gophs getting eight points although the spread was an absurd 16.5 points. I am fairly confident this week.

Add it all together.....Weber needing to actually play one good whole game..........Brewster still needing that one signature win............and a confidence in our D that I haven't seen since the late 90's.

Go Goph's.

 

[Curseislifted33]

Very interesting post, I enjoyed it thoroughly. It is interesting to note their only loss has come against the only quality team they have played, and to boot it was at home.
Just curious, but what is the Gophers SR rating?

 

[NewEngland_Gold]

Current week...

Sagarin Rating: Minnesota = 54

 

[Curseislifted33]

Thanks! It will go up after our our 2 wins in the next 2 weeks