Tubby's window of opportunity

[bga1]

Tubby has been hit with some bad luck this year in terms of his roster, no doubt. But in terms of good fortune during his tenure in the Big Ten he has been one very fortunate coach. Consider this. During his stay here, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan, teams that have been historically first division teams have all been in a very bad down cycle. This has been a great opportunity for Minnesota to have some top five finishes in conference. We still have that chance this year with our favorable remaining schedule. The consider that we have almost certainly been one of the last few "in" on Selection Sunday these past two years.

The window of opportunity will likely remain for another year. Then Iowa and Indiana will be better and possibly Michigan too. Bank on it. Tubby has definitely raised our stature here. The program has gained some credibility with the NCAA appearances. But we have yet to be over.500 in Big Ten play. The coach is stuck on a defensive strategy that yields the 3 point shot at will and an offense that is-offensive. Every year it appears like we will be better than Wisconsin and every year they are better than us.

I'm thankful that we have Tubby. He has given us reason for some hope- maybe that's the problem. But he needs some help on his assistant coaching staff. With what they are running here it seems like it is going to be difficult to attract guys that are scorers and aggressive on the offensive end. We do have Hollins and Coleman on the way and that does give one hope.

In yesterday's post game comments- Tubby started to begin to refer to next year. Indeed next year will be a big year for this program as the window of opportunity to sneak into the upper echelon of the Big Ten begins to close if we don't show a big step forward.

 

[station19]

BGA

Good points. I will add that listening to the post-game show on cco, there were more negative comments and questioning of Tubby than I have heard to date. Obviously frustration after an 'ugly loss' with a depleted roster but I get the feeling we will have more.

There were comments about Tubby's style of play and how it reflects recruiting. I'm curious what other GHers have to say about this.

 

[bga1]

BGA

Good points. I will add that listening to the post-game show on cco, there were more negative comments and questioning of Tubby than I have heard to date. Obviously frustration after an 'ugly loss' with a depleted roster but I get the feeling we will have more.

There were comments about Tubby's style of play and how it reflects recruiting. I'm curious what other GHers have to say about this.

Thanks 19. I just want to add that Tubby, as a person, he's the guy I want here. I am just hoping he brings in some staff as well as some players to change the look of what we are doing and bring us to the next level.

 

[jovs]

BGA

Good points. I will add that listening to the post-game show on cco, there were more negative comments and questioning of Tubby than I have heard to date. Obviously frustration after an 'ugly loss' with a depleted roster but I get the feeling we will have more.

There were comments about Tubby's style of play and how it reflects recruiting. I'm curious what other GHers have to say about this.

I don't think recruiting has been the problem, injuries and retention have been bigger issues. If everyone that enrolled at Minnesota was still here and healthy this team would be contending for the Big Ten title.

Look at Michigan State, I wonder how much of the problems they are having are due to transfers. Put Allen on that team and they are a different team.

 

[march madness]

Next years team should have plenty of players who can create their own shot. But they will badly miss Nolen and HOff. Unless Otto can play a lot I am not sure who will be taking outside jumpers? Andre is supposed to be a decent shooter. Coleman and Chip are drivers not shooters. I hope Austin can be a consistent shooter. Lacking a true top point guard will hurt also. It sounds like Andre can play some there but will he sacrifice his game to get others points? Who knows.

 

[dpodoll68]

Iowa and Michigan are historically first division teams? In what - football? I don't see how that affects Tubby.

 

[station19]

Next years team should have plenty of players who can create their own shot. But they will badly miss Nolen and HOff. Unless Otto can play a lot I am not sure who will be taking outside jumpers? Andre is supposed to be a decent shooter. Coleman and Chip are drivers not shooters. I hope Austin can be a consistent shooter. Lacking a true top point guard will hurt also. It sounds like Andre can play some there but will he sacrifice his game to get others points? Who knows.

Agreed. This is why I am amazed at all the talk of how great this team will be next year. Anything can happen but there will be no Hoff or Al. Many 'experts' comment on how important senior leadership and guards are(insert Al and Hoff here), expecially at tournamet time.

 

[station19]

Iowa and Michigan are historically first division teams? In what - football? I don't see how that affects Tubby.

It still amazes me how far Michigan BB has fallen the last several years. A once very strong and proud program. It's not like the Michigan athletic dept is lacking for revenue.

 

[playhosea!]

Iowa and Michigan are historically first division teams? In what - football? I don't see how that affects Tubby.

I agree. I doubt there is a single Big Ten basketball coach sitting in his office worrying about Iowa returning to its former basketball glory. Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana are all down. Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are up.

The Big Ten is a very tough league this year, with lots of talented veteran players.

 

[GVBadger]

I wouldn't worry about getting players that can create their own shot. I would worry about getting players that can make an outside shot with their feet set. Once Hoff leaves, someone is going to need to take that roll. I think losing Joseph was addition by subtraction and the Gophers have a lot of nice players. The lack of consistent outside shooting kills them against teams that they can't manhandle inside. Fortunately for the Gophers, there are not many of those teams, but OSU was certainly one of them.

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

Indiana could be the top team in the country in two years with their next recruiting classes

 

[KyGopherfan]

If you guys think Tubby will change is style of play, you can forget it. He's been coaching this way for decades. The only thing you can hope is that he starts pressing more, but he'll ALWAYS employ ball line defense. That will never change.

Recruiting is not a problem in so much as getting the right guys to fit the system. There's a lot of really good players out there. We'll never recruit like Kentucky, but I think Tubby has done an adequate job in recruiting.

 

[panndder]

Indiana could be the top team in the country in two years with their next recruiting classes

Never works. See: Kentucky. OSU has a bunch of glue guys and a stud and they're way more consistent.

 

[bga1]

Iowa and Michigan are historically first division teams? In what - football? I don't see how that affects Tubby.

DPodoll68 - Here's the record

Iowa- 1979 -2006 - 19 NCAA appearances (67%)
Michigan - 1985-1998 - 12 NCAAs (86%)
Indiana - 1973 -2008 - 30 NCAAs (83%)

Minnesota -1982- present 10 NCAAs (33%)

Maybe you are younger but Michigan, Indiana and Iowa have always been strong until recent years. Michigan took the worst and earliest dive. The rest have only fallen since Tubby arrived.

 

[bga1]

Never works. See: Kentucky. OSU has a bunch of glue guys and a stud and they're way more consistent.

Lighty, Butler and Craft are a lot more than just "glue guys".

 

[tikited]

If you guys think Tubby will change is style of play, you can forget it. He's been coaching this way for decades. The only thing you can hope is that he starts pressing more, but he'll ALWAYS employ ball line defense. That will never change.

I'm more than fine with this style if we have the players who can deliver on the defensive end. Right now we don't. Some shot blockers and that is it. I'll take a solid man-on-man defender over a shot blocker any day.

 

[dpodoll68]

DPodoll68 - Here's the record

Iowa- 1979 -2006 - 19 NCAA appearances (67%)
Michigan - 1985-1998 - 12 NCAAs (86%)
Indiana - 1973 -2008 - 30 NCAAs (83%)

Minnesota -1982- present 10 NCAAs (33%)

Maybe you are younger but Michigan, Indiana and Iowa have always been strong until recent years. Michigan took the worst and earliest dive. The rest have only fallen since Tubby arrived.

You take a very finite (and short) period of time, call it "always", and then use NCAA Tournament appearances as a measure of "first division" status? Sorry, I'm not buying it. Iowa hasn't won a conference title since 1979; Michigan, none since 1986. Making the tournament is not indicative of "first division" status.

There are exactly two Big Ten programs that "have always been strong" and are "historically first division teams" - Indiana and Michigan St. Purdue and Ohio St. would be in that next tier. It's tough to call two teams that aren't even in the discussion for the upper quartile of their own conference as "historically first division" and/or "always been strong".

Also, your stats on Minnesota are wrong. Minnesota has 6 tournament appearances since 1982.

 

[Rosemountian]

I think there is an institutional problem in the U of M athletics dept. Whether it is Al N getting academic suspension last year or guys transferring out......it seems like (maybe I am wrong) that the gophers have more problems keeping guys on the court or on the field than most other major programs. It is the same in football, they just seem to have trouble keeping guys on the field (think Gary Russel as to not spark brewster rants). Heck, even women's basketball has had some attrition. Do non-revenue sports at the U of M have this same problem?

Am I imagining this problem?
The U of M needs to figure out what they are doing wrong and fix it, or this trend will continue.

 

[bga1]

You take a very finite (and short) period of time, call it "always", and then use NCAA Tournament appearances as a measure of "first division" status? Sorry, I'm not buying it. Iowa hasn't won a conference title since 1979; Michigan, none since 1986. Making the tournament is not indicative of "first division" status.

There are exactly two Big Ten programs that "have always been strong" and are "historically first division teams" - Indiana and Michigan St. Purdue and Ohio St. would be in that next tier. It's tough to call two teams that aren't even in the discussion for the upper quartile of their own conference as "historically first division" and/or "always been strong".

Also, your stats on Minnesota are wrong. Minnesota has 6 tournament appearances since 1982.

Historically the Big Ten gets about 5 and sometimes 6 teams in the tournament. So in the case of Indiana, Michigan and Iowa- I'd say that this stat is certainly indicative of a lot of first division finishes. If you wish to narrow it to "the first quartile" 2.5 teams or a bit more now that we are 11 then fine- that's a different parameter. All I know is that these are three programs who have had a record over the past 30 years that is better than ours.

We have 10 but 4 were purged. So yeah 6- but I remember watching all 10.

 

[bga1]

I think there is an institutional problem in the U of M athletics dept. Whether it is Al N getting academic suspension last year or guys transferring out......it seems like (maybe I am wrong) that the gophers have more problems keeping guys on the court or on the field than most other major programs. It is the same in football, they just seem to have trouble keeping guys on the field (think Gary Russel as to not spark brewster rants). Heck, even women's basketball has had some attrition. Do non-revenue sports at the U of M have this same problem?

Am I imagining this problem?
The U of M needs to figure out what they are doing wrong and fix it, or this trend will continue.

No, we definitely have a tendency toward athletic department self destruction syndrome ADSDS.

 

[Monty519]

I think there is an institutional problem in the U of M athletics dept. Whether it is Al N getting academic suspension last year or guys transferring out......it seems like (maybe I am wrong) that the gophers have more problems keeping guys on the court or on the field than most other major programs. It is the same in football, they just seem to have trouble keeping guys on the field (think Gary Russel as to not spark brewster rants). Heck, even women's basketball has had some attrition. Do non-revenue sports at the U of M have this same problem?

Am I imagining this problem?
The U of M needs to figure out what they are doing wrong and fix it, or this trend will continue.

No, there's definitely something in the water here, seems like we can't keep the peace around here for more than short spans before stuff goes wrong. I don't know if it's an institutional thing, or just more of how the breaks have fallen for us recently. I've said this before, but I think Tubby took on some "questionables" while trying to quickly rebuild this program and get established and some of that has backfired. You've seen his last two recruiting classes have focused on bringing in more character guys, but it's gonna take a little time for that era to kick in. We have some very talented players still coming on and also on the roster, we just need to wade through this muddle and hope that eventually, Tubby will get this thing rolling.

 

[dpodoll68]

All I know is that these are three programs who have had a record over the past 30 years that is better than ours.

Yes, but that's not exactly exclusive company. If the criteria for "first divison" status is "better than Minnesota", the list would consist of about 8 or 9 teams. Northwestern has been much better than us in football over the last two decades, but I certainly wouldn't call them "first division" in football.

 

[Go Gophs]

Guards, guards, guards. We need more good guards if you really want to be top tier. College basketball is all about guards and 3 point shooting. It just is. I really cannot believe that a highend point guard has never been recruited since Tubby has been here. That should be our #1 target at least every other year. It is imperative to have a good point guard if you want to go anywhere.

Also, the defensive philosophy that says colapse down defensively when the ball goes inside is garbage and the reason why give up so many 3's. We have the bigs in there right now that are good enough to defend in the post, let's let them guard their guys one on one and see what happens.

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

Tubby has been hit with some bad luck this year in terms of his roster, no doubt. But in terms of good fortune during his tenure in the Big Ten he has been one very fortunate coach. Consider this. During his stay here, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan, teams that have been historically first division teams have all been in a very bad down cycle. This has been a great opportunity for Minnesota to have some top five finishes in conference. We still have that chance this year with our favorable remaining schedule. The consider that we have almost certainly been one of the last few "in" on Selection Sunday these past two years.

The window of opportunity will likely remain for another year. Then Iowa and Indiana will be better and possibly Michigan too. Bank on it. Tubby has definitely raised our stature here. The program has gained some credibility with the NCAA appearances. But we have yet to be over.500 in Big Ten play. The coach is stuck on a defensive strategy that yields the 3 point shot at will and an offense that is-offensive. Every year it appears like we will be better than Wisconsin and every year they are better than us.

I'm thankful that we have Tubby. He has given us reason for some hope- maybe that's the problem. But he needs some help on his assistant coaching staff. With what they are running here it seems like it is going to be difficult to attract guys that are scorers and aggressive on the offensive end. We do have Hollins and Coleman on the way and that does give one hope.

In yesterday's post game comments- Tubby started to begin to refer to next year. Indeed next year will be a big year for this program as the window of opportunity to sneak into the upper echelon of the Big Ten begins to close if we don't show a big step forward.

Good comments. Overall, what you see in the 5th year is what you'll get from ANY coach.

Tubby's first 5 years at UK = 132-43. Tubby's next 5 years at UK = 131-40.

By the 5th year, I'd expect 25 W season(s). Top 3-4 in B10. Contenders for B10T and B10 titles. And 1 or 2 W in NCAA tournament (most years).

 

[andy]

Tubby has been hit with some bad luck this year in terms of his roster, no doubt. But in terms of good fortune during his tenure in the Big Ten he has been one very fortunate coach. Consider this. During his stay here, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan, teams that have been historically first division teams have all been in a very bad down cycle. This has been a great opportunity for Minnesota to have some top five finishes in conference. We still have that chance this year with our favorable remaining schedule. The consider that we have almost certainly been one of the last few "in" on Selection Sunday these past two years.

The window of opportunity will likely remain for another year. Then Iowa and Indiana will be better and possibly Michigan too. Bank on it.

I somewhat disagree with the "window of opportunity" assessment. When Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan improve, what will happen to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue? The only way Iowa, for example, moves into the top tier of the Big Ten is by beating good Big Ten teams, which means those teams will add losses to their schedule and will move DOWN in the Big Ten standings. You are not going to have eight teams in the top tier of the Big Ten. That's only feasible if we are a 16 team conference with a bunch more crappy teams to beat up on.

We are in the middle, and worst case scenario, with our talent level and coaching, is remaining in the middle. The window in the Big Ten seems pretty consistent to me. The overall talent and coaching level has improved, but Minnesota has improved right along with it.

 

[bga1]

I somewhat disagree with the "window of opportunity" assessment. When Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan improve, what will happen to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue? The only way Iowa, for example, moves into the top tier of the Big Ten is by beating good Big Ten teams, which means those teams will add losses to their schedule and will move DOWN in the Big Ten standings. You are not going to have eight teams in the top tier of the Big Ten. That's only feasible if we are a 16 team conference with a bunch more crappy teams to beat up on.

We are in the middle, and worst case scenario, with our talent level and coaching, is remaining in the middle. The window in the Big Ten seems pretty consistent to me. The overall talent and coaching level has improved, but Minnesota has improved right along with it.

I don't see Purdue, Ohio State or Wisconsin having a bad stretch anytime soon. Those coaches are tremendous. MSU is having one bad year, but Izzo will have that straightened out either by year end or certainly by next year. Again he's too good. What happens when Indiana, Iowa and Michigan come out of their cycle is that some very good teams will miss the NCAAs each year. This is a scenario that happened in the 80's and 90's and even in the early 00's. One such year was when the Rickert led squad didn't make it. Very good squad- but the Big Ten was loaded.

Tubby is good as well. All I'm saying is that there is a period in time here- and this year is included- where it's a little easier to make hay in the Big Ten than normal. Not an easy year to win the Big Ten Championship- because of Ohio State - but a very good year to have a strong upper division showing.

 

[BleedGopher]

I don't see Purdue, Ohio State or Wisconsin having a bad stretch anytime soon. Those coaches are tremendous. MSU is having one bad year, but Izzo will have that straightened out either by year end or certainly by next year. Again he's too good. What happens when Indiana, Iowa and Michigan come out of their cycle is that some very good teams will miss the NCAAs each year. This is a scenario that happened in the 80's and 90's and even in the early 00's. One such year was when the Rickert led squad didn't make it. Very good squad- but the Big Ten was loaded.

Tubby is good as well. All I'm saying is that there is a period in time here- and this year is included- where it's a little easier to make hay in the Big Ten than normal. Not an easy year to win the Big Ten Championship- because of Ohio State - but a very good year to have a strong upper division showing.

There is no lock that Michigan/Indiana/Iowa will come out of their cycle. Michigan has had three coaches in a row that haven't worked out (Beilein's tenure isn't over yet, but they certainly aren't where they thought they'd be in year 4) and previous to him they had Ellerbe and Amaker. So they are going on well over a decade of said funk, outside of a few years here or there. But overall, they haven't done much since the Fab 5 and that all got taken away. So I'm not sure what glory years we are looking at here...sure they had a incredible three weeks when Glen Rice got hot back in 1989, but outside of the cheating years of the Fab 5, they haven't been a consistent top 3-4 BT team.

We have no idea if Fran McCaffery is Todd Lickliter or not. I would argue that he's doing a solid job early, but he has a long ways to go as well. The Steve Alford era was better than the Monson era was here, but it's been well over a decade for Iowa too since they've been a top tier BT team.

I get what you are saying bga1, but it really has been a good decade for Iowa and two decades for Michigan since they were year in and year out a top tier BT team. At some point they will cycle through (just as I would hope that at some point we may too) but I'd be more worried about Illinois re-asserting themselves back in the BT hunt consistently as Bruce Weber's BT standings finishes have slowly declined after the initial first two seasons playing with Self's recruits.

Go Gophers!!

 

[howeda7]

I don't see Purdue, Ohio State or Wisconsin having a bad stretch anytime soon. Those coaches are tremendous. MSU is having one bad year, but Izzo will have that straightened out either by year end or certainly by next year. Again he's too good. What happens when Indiana, Iowa and Michigan come out of their cycle is that some very good teams will miss the NCAAs each year. This is a scenario that happened in the 80's and 90's and even in the early 00's. One such year was when the Rickert led squad didn't make it. Very good squad- but the Big Ten was loaded.

Tubby is good as well. All I'm saying is that there is a period in time here- and this year is included- where it's a little easier to make hay in the Big Ten than normal. Not an easy year to win the Big Ten Championship- because of Ohio State - but a very good year to have a strong upper division showing.

Chances our if we had Al Nolen, Devoe Joseph and Royce White, we'd be making said hay. Sadly, the window hammed, right on our hand, or foot, if you will.

 

[sec105]

posted by Rosemountian...The U of M needs to figure out what they are doing wrong and fix it

What they are doing wrong is Joel Maturi caring as much about Rowing and Golf as he does about Basketball and Football. That is easy to fix but...

 

[bga1]

There is no lock that Michigan/Indiana/Iowa will come out of their cycle. Michigan has had three coaches in a row that haven't worked out (Beilein's tenure isn't over yet, but they certainly aren't where they thought they'd be in year 4) and previous to him they had Ellerbe and Amaker. So they are going on well over a decade of said funk, outside of a few years here or there. But overall, they haven't done much since the Fab 5 and that all got taken away. So I'm not sure what glory years we are looking at here...sure they had a incredible three weeks when Glen Rice got hot back in 1989, but outside of the cheating years of the Fab 5, they haven't been a consistent top 3-4 BT team.

We have no idea if Fran McCaffery is Todd Lickliter or not. I would argue that he's doing a solid job early, but he has a long ways to go as well. The Steve Alford era was better than the Monson era was here, but it's been well over a decade for Iowa too since they've been a top tier BT team.

I get what you are saying bga1, but it really has been a good decade for Iowa and two decades for Michigan since they were year in and year out a top tier BT team. At some point they will cycle through (just as I would hope that at some point we may too) but I'd be more worried about Illinois re-asserting themselves back in the BT hunt consistently as Bruce Weber's BT standings finishes have slowly declined after the initial first two seasons playing with Self's recruits.

Go Gophers!!

Hope you are right Bleed. Those are three teams that I would be happy to see stink it up for another 10 or 20 years.