Tracking the Sagarin Ratings: Week 1

[Gopher07]

As with the last couple years, I'll be sharing the Sagarin predictions for the season (until the Gophers are way out of it, which happened last year, or until something monumental comes up and I forget ... whichever comes first ). Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.00 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads. Right now it's going to be very odd as things get sorted out/more teams play more teams. But for now, here we go:

Minnesota, #88, 65.91 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ UNLV (W, 30-27)
vs UNH (-4.5)
vs Western Michigan (-4.5)
vs Syracuse (-1.5)
@ Iowa (+15.5)
vs Northwestern (+2)
@ Wisconsin (+21)
vs Purdue (+2.5)
vs Michigan (+9.5)
@ Illinois (+6)
@ Nebraska (+21)
vs Michigan State (+13)

Final record: 4-8 (0-8).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers): UNH, Western Michigan, Syracuse
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State

 

[wait!what?]

there isn't a single outcome listed that i could debate.

 

[MadtownGopher]

Kind of surprised Iowa is that big of a favorite, but I suppose it's mostly because we are playing them on the road.

 

[Gopher07]

The one that's potentially a headscratcher is the gap between us and Iowa, particularly given their squeaker over NIU last week. It could be debated that we'll be closer than two touchdown underdogs, but I could see it certainly.

 

[nsmike]

You really need to wait to do this until after the 4th game before that there's a lot of last years data factored in. Still we should be 4-0 at that point.

 

[Gopher07]

It's nothing more than fodder so I don't think I need to wait to do it for any reason .. just caveat that the results will be odd as things get sorted out and last year's influence is taken away. I still think it gives a good representation of where the team is right now, given the knowledge at our disposal (which, to be honest, is mostly what we know from last year anyhow).

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

I agree that at this point the ratings are a bit of GIGO. But I think the one clear signal is that if we continue to play as sloppily as we did vs. UNLV then 4-8 is probably a best case scenario. As others have said, let's see what Sagarin says 2 or 3 weeks from now

 

[GoAUpher]

You really need to wait to do this until after the 4th game before that there's a lot of last years data factored in. Still we should be 4-0 at that point.

This. Sagarin needs more data to produce a more accurate model.